In this study, the performances of four satellite-based precipitation products (IMERG-V06 Final-Run, TRMM-3B42V7, SM2Rain-ASCAT, and PERSIANN-CDR) were assessed with reference to the measurements of in-situ gauges at daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual scales from 2010 to 2017, over the Hindu Kush Mountains of Pakistan. The products were evaluated over the entire domain and at point-to-pixel scales. Different evaluation indices (Correlation Coefficient (CC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Bias, and relative Bias (rBias)) and categorical indices (False Alarm Ration (FAR), Critical Success Index (CSI), Success Ratio (SR), and Probability of Detection (POD)) were used to assess the performances of the products considered in this study. Our results indicated the following. (1) IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN capably tracked the spatio-temporal variation of precipitation over the studied region. (2) All satellite-based products were in better agreement with the reference data on the monthly scales than on daily time scales. (3) On seasonal scale, the precipitation detection skills of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR were better than those of SM2Rain-ASCAT and TRMM-3B42V7. In all seasons, overall performance of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR was better than TRMM-3B42V7 and SM2Rain-ASCAT. (4) However, all products were uncertain in detecting light and moderate precipitation events. Consequently, we recommend the use of IMERG-V06 and PERSIANN-CDR products for subsequent hydro-meteorological studies in the Hindu Kush range.
The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test, double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area. The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 °C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from 0.50 to 0.61 °C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%) during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period. The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water resources and for ecological environment protection.
Millions of people in Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan are dependent on the freshwater supply of the Vakhsh River system. Sustainable management of the water resources of the Vakhsh River Basin (VRB) requires comprehensive assessment regarding future climate change and its implications for streamflow. In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of projected climate change scenarios on the streamflow in the VRB for two future periods (2022–2060 and 2061–2099). The probable changes in the regional climate system were assessed using the outputs of five global climate models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The probable streamflow was simulated using a semi-distributed hydrological model, namely the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Evidence of a significant increase in the annual average temperature by the end of the 21st century was found, ranging from 2.25 to 4.40 °C under RCP4.5 and from 4.40 to 6.60 °C under RCP8.5. The results of three GCMs indicated a decreasing tendency of annual average precipitation (from −1.7% to −16.0% under RCP4.5 and from −3.4% to −29.8% under RCP8.5). Under RCP8.5, two GCMs indicated an increase (from 2.3% to 5.3%) in the average annual precipitation by the end of 2099. The simulated results of the hydrological model reported an increasing tendency of average annual streamflow, from 17.5% to 52.3% under both RCPs, by the end of 2099. A shift in the peak flow month was also found, i.e., from July to June, under both RCPs. It is expected that in the future, median and high flows might increase, whereas low flow might decrease by the end of 2099. It is concluded that the future seasonal streamflow in the VRB are highly uncertain due to the probable alterations in temperature and precipitation. The findings of the present study could be useful for understanding the future hydrological behavior of the Vakhsh River, for the planning of sustainable regional irrigation systems in the downstream countries, i.e., Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and for the construction of hydropower plants in the upstream countries.
Small-scale power generation based on renewable energy sources is gaining popularity in distribution grids, creating new challenges for power system control. At the same time, remote consumers with their own small-scale generation still have low reliability of power supply and poor power quality, due to the lack of proper technology for grid control when the main power supply is lost. Today, there is a global trend in the transition from a power supply with centralized control to a decentralized one, which has led to the Microgrid concept. A microgrid is an intelligent automated system that can reconfigure by itself, maintain the power balance, and distribute power flows. The main purpose of this paper is to study the method of control using reclosers in the Lahsh district of the Rasht grid in Tajikistan with distributed small generation. Based on modified reclosers, a method of decentralized synchronization and restoration of the grid normal operation after the loss of the main power source was proposed. In order to assess the stable operation of small hydropower plants under disturbances, the transients caused by proactive automatic islanding (PAI) and restoration of the interconnection between the microgrid and the main grid are shown. Rustab software, as one of the multifunctional software applications in the field of power systems transients study, was used for simulation purposes. Based on the simulation results, it can be concluded that under disturbances, the proposed method had a positive effect on the stability of small hydropower plants, which are owned and dispatched by the Rasht grid. Moreover, the proposed method sufficiently ensures the quality of the supplied power and improves the reliability of power supply in the Lahsh district of Tajikistan.
As is already known, solar photovoltaic (PV) technology is a widely accepted technology for power generation worldwide. However, it is scientifically proven that its power output decreases with an increase in the temperature of the PV module. Such an important issue is controlled by adopting a number of cooling mechanisms for the PV module. The present experimental study assesses the effect of a fanless CPU heat pipe on the performance of a PV module. The experiment was conducted in June in real weather conditions in Yekaterinburg, Russian Federation. The comparative analysis of two PV panels (i.e., cooled, and uncooled) based on the electrical energy, exergy performance, economic, embodied energy and energy payback (5E) for the two systems is presented and discussed. The key results from the study are that the average temperature reduction from the cooling process is 6.72 °C. The average power for the cooled panel is 11.39 W against 9.73 W for the uncooled PV panel; this represents an increase of 1.66 W for the cooled module. Moreover, the average improvements in the electrical efficiency, and embodied energy recorded for a cooled PV panel 2.98%, and 438.52 kWh, respectively. Furthermore, the calculations of the levelized cost of energy (LCE) for the cooled PV panel indicate that it can range from 0.277–0.964 USD/kWh, while that for the uncooled PV panel also ranges from 0.205–0.698 USD/kWh based on the number of days of operation of the plant.
Hydro–climatic variables play an essential role in assessing the long-term changes in streamflow in the snow-fed and glacier-fed rivers that are extremely vulnerable to climatic variations in the alpine mountainous regions. The trend and magnitudinal changes of hydro–climatic variables, such as temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, were determined by applying the non-parametric Mann–Kendall, modified Mann–Kendall, and Sen’s slope tests in the Kofarnihon River Basin in Central Asia. We also used Pettitt’s test to analyze the changes during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 time periods. This study revealed that the variations of climate variables have their significant spatial patterns and are strongly regulated by the altitude. From mountainous regions down to plain regions, the decadal temperature trends varied from −0.18 to 0.36 °C/decade and the variation of precipitation from −4.76 to −14.63 mm yr−1 per decade. Considering the temporal variation, the temperature trends decreased in winter and significantly increased in spring, and the precipitation trends significantly decreased in spring but significantly increased in winter in the high-altitude areas. As consequence, total streamflow in headwater regions shows the obvious increase and clear seasonal variations. The mean monthly streamflow decreased in fall and winter and significantly increased in the spring and summer seasons which can be attributed to the influence of global warming on the rapid melting of snow and ice. Although the abrupt change points in air temperature and precipitation occurred around the 1970s and 1990s in the low-altitude areas and 2000s in the high-altitude areas during the 1951–2012 and 1979–2012 periods, the general trends of hydro–climatic variables keep consistent. This study benefits water resource management, socio–economic development, and sustainable agricultural planning in Tajikistan and its downstream countries.
The all-weather high-resolution air temperature data is crucial for understanding the urban thermal conditions with their spatio-temporal characteristics, driving factors, socio-economic and environmental consequences. In this study, we developed a novel 5-layer Deep Belief Network (DBN) deep learning model to fuse multi-source data and then generated air temperature data with 3H characteristics: High resolution, High spatio-temporal continuity (spatially seamless and temporally continuous), and High accuracy simultaneously. The DBN model was developed and applied for two different urban regions: Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) in China, and Austin, Texas, USA. The model has a excellent ability to fit the complex nonlinear relationship between temperature and different predictive variables. After various adjustments to the model structure and different combinations of input variables, the daily 500-m air temperature in Wuhan Metropolitan Area (WMA) was initially generated by fusing remote sensing, reanalysis and in situ measurement products. The ten-fold cross-validation results indicated that the DBN model achieved promising results with the RMSE of 1.086 °C, MAE of 0.839 °C, and R2 of 0.986. Compared with conventional data fusion algorithms, the DBN model also exhibited better performance. In addition, the detailed evaluation of the model on spatial and temporal scales proved the advantages of using DBN model to generate 3H temperature data. The spatial transferability of the model was tested by conducting a validation experiment for Austin, USA. In general, the results and fine-scale analyses show that the employed framework is effective to generate 3H temperature, which is valuable for urban climate and urban heat island research.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.
hi@scite.ai
10624 S. Eastern Ave., Ste. A-614
Henderson, NV 89052, USA
Copyright © 2024 scite LLC. All rights reserved.
Made with 💙 for researchers
Part of the Research Solutions Family.