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The resurgence of tuberculosis in the 1990s and the emergence of drug-resistant tuberculosis in the first decade of the 21st century increased the importance of epidemiological models for the disease. Due to slow progression of tuberculosis, the transmission dynamics and its long-term effects can often be better observed and predicted using simulations of epidemiological models. This study provides a review of earlier study on modeling different aspects of tuberculosis dynamics. The models simulate tuberculosis transmission dynamics, treatment, drug resistance, control strategies for increasing compliance to treatment, HIV/TB co-infection, and patient groups. The models are based on various mathematical systems, such as systems of ordinary differential equations, simulation models, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The inferences from the models are justified by case studies and statistical analysis of TB patient datasets.

BackgroundWe present a novel conformal Bayesian network (CBN) to classify strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis Complex (MTBC) into six major genetic lineages based on two high-throuput biomarkers: mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units (MIRU) and spacer oligonucleotide typing (spoligotyping). MTBC is the causative agent of tuberculosis (TB), which remains one of the leading causes of disease and morbidity world-wide. DNA fingerprinting methods such as MIRU and spoligotyping are key components in the control and tracking of modern TB. ResultsCBN is designed to exploit background knowledge about MTBC biomarkers. It can be trained on large historical TB databases of various subsets of MTBC biomarkers. During TB control efforts not all biomarkers may be available. So, CBN is designed to predict the major lineage of isolates genotyped by any combination of the PCR-based typing methods: spoligotyping and MIRU typing. CBN achieves high accuracy on three large MTBC collections consisting of over 34,737 isolates genotyped by different combinations of spoligotypes, 12 loci of MIRU, and 24 loci of MIRU. CBN captures distinct MIRU and spoligotype signatures associated with each lineage, explaining its excellent performance. Visualization of MIRU and spoligotype signatures yields insight into both how the model works and the genetic diversity of MTBC.ConclusionsCBN conforms to the available PCR-based biological markers and achieves high performance in identifying major lineages of MTBC. The method can be readily extended as new biomarkers are introduced for TB tracking and control. An online tool (http://www.cs.rpi.edu/~bennek/tbinsight/tblineage) makes the CBN model available for TB control and research efforts.

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BackgroundStrains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) can be classified into major lineages based on their genotype. Further subdivision of major lineages into sublineages requires multiple biomarkers along with methods to combine and analyze multiple sources of information in one unsupervised learning model. Typically, spacer oligonucleotide type (spoligotype) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units (MIRU) are used for TB genotyping and surveillance. Here, we examine the sublineage structure of MTBC strains with multiple biomarkers simultaneously, by employing a tensor clustering framework (TCF) on multiple-biomarker tensors.ResultsSimultaneous analysis of the spoligotype and MIRU type of strains using TCF on multiple-biomarker tensors leads to coherent sublineages of major lineages with clear and distinctive spoligotype and MIRU signatures. Comparison of tensor sublineages with SpolDB4 families either supports tensor sublineages, or suggests subdivision or merging of SpolDB4 families. High prediction accuracy of major lineage classification with supervised tensor learning on multiple-biomarker tensors validates our unsupervised analysis of sublineages on multiple-biomarker tensors.ConclusionsTCF on multiple-biomarker tensors achieves simultaneous analysis of multiple biomarkers and suggest a new putative sublineage structure for each major lineage. Analysis of multiple-biomarker tensors gives insight into the sublineage structure of MTBC at the genomic level.