Estimations of species extinction dates are rarely definitive, yet declarations of extinction or extirpation are important as they define when conservation efforts may cease. Erroneous declarations of extinctions not only destabilize conservation efforts but also corrode local community support. Mismatches in perceptions by the scientific and local communities risk undermining sensitive, but important partnerships. We examine observations relating to the decline and extinction of Barbary lions in North Africa. Whilst the extinction predates the era of the scientific conservation movement, the decline is relatively well documented in historical records. Recently unearthed accounts suggest Barbary lions survived later than previously assumed. We use probabilistic methods to estimate a more recent extinction date for the subspecies. The evidence presented for a much later persistence of lions in North Africa, including generations when sightings were nil, suggests caution when considering felid populations as extinct in the wild. The case raises the possibility that captive animals descended from the Moroccan royal collection are closer contemporaries to wild Barbary lions. Furthermore, our results highlight the vulnerability of very small lion populations and the significance of continued conservation of remnant lion populations in Central and West Africa.
Increasing conflicts and social insecurity are expected to accelerate biodiversity decline and escalate illegal wildlife killing. Sahara-Sahel megafauna has experienced recent continuous decline due to unsustainable hunting pressure. Here, we provide the best available data on distribution and population trends of threatened, large vertebrates, to illustrate how escalating regional conflict (565% growth since 2011) is hastening population decline in areas that were formerly refugia for megafauna. Without conservation action, the unique and iconic biodiversity of Earth's largest desert will be forever lost. We recommend: (1) establishing strong commitments for change in global attitude toward nature; (2) engraining a culture of environmental responsibility among all stakeholders; (3) fostering environmental awareness to drive societal change; (4) reinforcing regional security and firearms control; and (5) implementing local research and wildlife monitoring schemes. We identify relevant international partners needed to tackle these challenges and to make strong policy change for biodiversity conservation and regional stability.
As species become rare and approach extinction, purported sightings can be controversial, especially when scarce management resources are at stake. We consider the probability that each individual sighting of a series is valid. Obtaining these probabilities requires a strict framework to ensure that they are as accurately representative as possible. We used a process, which has proven to provide accurate estimates from a group of experts, to obtain probabilities for the validation of 32 sightings of the Barbary lion. We consider the scenario where experts are simply asked whether a sighting was valid, as well as asking them to score the sighting based on distinguishablity, observer competence, and verifiability. We find that asking experts to provide scores for these three aspects resulted in each sighting being considered more individually, meaning that this new questioning method provides very different estimated probabilities that a sighting is valid, which greatly affects the outcome from an extinction model. We consider linear opinion pooling and logarithm opinion pooling to combine the three scores, and also to combine opinions on each sighting. We find the two methods produce similar outcomes, allowing the user to focus on chosen features of each method, such as satisfying the marginalisation property or being externally Bayesian.
Assessing the biodiversity of a region, particularly when it includes rare, cryptic and nocturnal species, is notoriously difficult but nevertheless of great importance, especially in regions that have received little prior research interest. Species in these regions are often only perceived to be present through the identification of animal signs such as scat or hair. Here we show how molecular techniques can be used to sequence mitochondrial DNA extracted from the scat of essentially unknown carnivore species and thus assess the species present in a remote desert region in southern Algeria. In doing so we present a reliable and reproducible method for determining carnivore biodiversity through non-invasive sampling. We also identify two species of large carnivore in an area where one, the cheetah Acinonyx jubatus, is known to exist but at very low densities, and another, the leopard Panthera pardus, has never previously been observed.
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