IMPORTANCE Although surgery offers the best chance of a potential cure for patients with localized, resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), prognosis of patients remains dismal largely because of a high incidence of recurrence.OBJECTIVE To predict very early recurrence (VER) (ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) following resection for ICC in the pre-and postoperative setting. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSPatients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between May 1990 and July 2016 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The study was conducted at The Ohio State University in collaboration with all other participating institutions. The data were analyzed in December 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESTwo logistic regression models were constructed to predict VER based on pre-and postoperative variables. The final models were used to develop an online calculator to predict VER and the tool was internally and externally validated. RESULTS Among 880 patients (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 51-68 years]; 388 women [44.1%]; 428 [50.2%] white; 377 [44.3%] Asian; 27 [3.2%] black]), 196 (22.3%) developed VER.The 5-year overall survival among patients with and without VER was 8.9% vs 49.8%, respectively (P < .001). A preoperative model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk for VER: low risk (6-month recurrence-free survival [RFS], 87.7%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 72.3%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 49.5%) (log-rank P < .001). The postoperative model similarly identified discrete cohorts of patients based on probability for VER: low risk (6-month RFS, 90.0%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 73.1%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 48.5%) (log-rank, P < .001). The calibration and predictive accuracy of the pre-and postoperative models were good in the training (C index: preoperative, 0.710; postoperative, 0.722) as well as the internal (C index: preoperative, 0.715; postoperative, 0.728; bootstrapping resamples, n = 5000) and external (C index: postoperative, 0.672) validation data sets. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCEAn easy-to-use online calculator was developed to help clinicians predict the chance of VER after curative-intent resection for ICC. The tool performed well on internal and external validation. This tool may help clinicians in the preoperative selection of patients for neoadjuvant therapy as well as during the postoperative period to inform surveillance strategies.

Background Although the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) staging system has been largely adopted in clinical practice, recent studies have emphasized the need for further refinement and subclassification of this system. Methods Patients who underwent hepatectomy with curative intent for BCLC‐0, ‐A or ‐B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) between 2000 and 2017 were identified using a multi‐institutional database. The tumour burden score (TBS) was calculated, and overall survival (OS) was examined in relation to TBS and BCLC stage. Results Among 1053 patients, 63 (6·0 per cent) had BCLC‐0, 826 (78·4 per cent) BCLC‐A and 164 (15·6 per cent) had BCLC‐B HCC. OS worsened incrementally with higher TBS (5‐year OS 77·9, 61 and 39 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P < 0·001). No differences in OS were noted among patients with similar TBS, irrespective of BCLC stage (61·6 versus 58·9 per cent for BCLC‐A/medium TBS versus BCLC‐B/medium TBS, P = 0·930; 45 versus 13 per cent for BCLC‐A/high TBS versus BCLC‐B/high TBS, P = 0·175). Patients with BCLC‐B HCC and a medium TBS had better OS than those with BCLC‐A disease and a high TBS (58·9 versus 45 per cent; P = 0·005). On multivariable analysis, TBS remained associated with OS among patients with BCLC‐A (medium TBS: hazard ratio (HR) 2·07, 95 per cent c.i. 1·42 to 3·02, P < 0·001; high TBS: HR 4·05, 2·40 to 6·82, P < 0·001) and BCLC‐B (high TBS: HR 3·85, 2·03 to 7·30; P < 0·001) HCC. TBS could also stratify prognosis among patients in an external validation cohort (5‐year OS 79, 51·2 and 28 per cent for low, medium and high TBS respectively; P = 0·010). Conclusion The prognosis of patients with HCC varied according to the BCLC stage but was largely dependent on the TBS.

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