IMPORTANCE Although surgery offers the best chance of a potential cure for patients with localized, resectable intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC), prognosis of patients remains dismal largely because of a high incidence of recurrence.OBJECTIVE To predict very early recurrence (VER) (ie, recurrence within 6 months after surgery) following resection for ICC in the pre-and postoperative setting. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSPatients who underwent curative-intent resection for ICC between May 1990 and July 2016 were identified from an international multi-institutional database. The study was conducted at The Ohio State University in collaboration with all other participating institutions. The data were analyzed in December 2019. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESTwo logistic regression models were constructed to predict VER based on pre-and postoperative variables. The final models were used to develop an online calculator to predict VER and the tool was internally and externally validated. RESULTS Among 880 patients (median age, 59 years [interquartile range, 51-68 years]; 388 women [44.1%]; 428 [50.2%] white; 377 [44.3%] Asian; 27 [3.2%] black]), 196 (22.3%) developed VER.The 5-year overall survival among patients with and without VER was 8.9% vs 49.8%, respectively (P < .001). A preoperative model was able to stratify patients relative to the risk for VER: low risk (6-month recurrence-free survival [RFS], 87.7%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 72.3%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 49.5%) (log-rank P < .001). The postoperative model similarly identified discrete cohorts of patients based on probability for VER: low risk (6-month RFS, 90.0%), intermediate risk (6-month RFS, 73.1%), and high risk (6-month RFS, 48.5%) (log-rank, P < .001). The calibration and predictive accuracy of the pre-and postoperative models were good in the training (C index: preoperative, 0.710; postoperative, 0.722) as well as the internal (C index: preoperative, 0.715; postoperative, 0.728; bootstrapping resamples, n = 5000) and external (C index: postoperative, 0.672) validation data sets. CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCEAn easy-to-use online calculator was developed to help clinicians predict the chance of VER after curative-intent resection for ICC. The tool performed well on internal and external validation. This tool may help clinicians in the preoperative selection of patients for neoadjuvant therapy as well as during the postoperative period to inform surveillance strategies.

No abstract

No abstract

BACKGROUND: The effect of community-level factors on surgical outcomes has not been well examined. We sought to characterize differences in “textbook outcomes” (TO) relative to social vulnerability among Medicare beneficiaries who underwent operations for cancer. METHODS: Individuals who underwent operations for lung, esophageal, colon, or rectal cancer between 2013 and 2017 were identified using the Medicare database, which was merged with the CDC's Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). TO was defined as surgical episodes with the absence of complications, extended length of stay, readmission, and mortality. The association of SVI and TO was assessed using mixed-effects logistic regression. RESULTS: Among 203,800 patients (colon, n = 113,929; lung, n = 70,642; rectal, n = 14,849; and esophageal, n = 4,380), median age was 75 years (interquartile range 70 to 80 years) and the overwhelming majority of patients was White (n = 184,989 [90.8%]). The overall incidence of TO was 56.1% (n = 114,393). The incidence of complications (low SVI: 21.5% vs high SVI: 24.0%) and 90-day mortality (low SVI: 7.0% vs high SVI: 8.4%) were higher among patients from highly vulnerable neighborhoods (both, p < 0.05). In turn, there were lower odds of achieving TO among high-vs low-SVI patients (odds ratio 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78 to 0.87). Although high-SVI White patients had 10% lower odds (95% CI, 0.87 to 0.93) of achieving TO, high-SVI non-White patients were at 22% lower odds (95% CI, 0.71 to 0.85) of postoperative TO. Compared with low-SVI White patients, high-SVI minority patients had 47% increased odds of an extended length of stay, 40% increased odds of a complication, and 23% increased odds of 90-day mortality (all, p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Only roughly one-half of Medicare beneficiaries achieved the composite optimal TO quality metric. Social vulnerability was associated with lower attainment of TO and an increased risk of adverse postoperative surgical outcomes after several common oncologic procedures. The effect of high SVI was most pronounced among minority patients.