As compared with open repair, endovascular repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm is associated with lower short-term rates of death and complications. The survival advantage is more durable among older patients. Late reinterventions related to abdominal aortic aneurysm are more common after endovascular repair but are balanced by an increase in laparotomy-related reinterventions and hospitalizations after open surgery.

OBJECTIVE With the expansion of elective abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair after the introduction of endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), there is a concern that even with a lower operative mortality there could be increasing number of aneurysm related deaths. To evaluate this, we looked at national trends in AAA repair volume as well as mortality after intact and ruptured AAA repair encompassing the introduction of EVAR. METHODS Patients with intact or ruptured AAA undergoing open repair or EVAR and all those with a diagnosis of ruptured AAA were identified within the 1993–2005 Nationwide Inpatient Sample database using ICD-9 diagnosis and procedure codes. The number of repairs, number of rupture diagnoses without repair, number of deaths, and associated mortality rates were measured for each year of the database. Outcomes (mean annual volumes) were compared from the pre-EVAR era (1993–1998) to the post-EVAR era (2001–2005). RESULTS Since introduction, EVAR increased steadily and accounted for 56% of repairs, yet only 27% of the deaths for intact repairs in 2005. The mean annual number of intact repairs increased from 36,122 in the pre-EVAR era to 38,901 in the post-EVAR era while the mean annual number of deaths related to intact AAA repair decreased from 1,693 pre-EVAR to 1,207 post-EVAR (P < .0001). Mortality for all intact AAA repair decreased from 4.0% to 3.1% (P < .0001) pre and post-EVAR but open repair mortality was unchanged (open repair 4.7% to 4.5%, P= .31; EVAR 1.3%). During the same time periods, mean annual number of ruptured repairs decreased from 2,804 to 1,846 and deaths from ruptured AAA repairs decreased from 2,804 to 1,846 (P < .0001). Mortality for ruptured AAA repair decreased from 44.3% to 39.9% (P < .0001) pre and post-EVAR (open repair 44.3% to 39.9%, P< .001; EVAR 32.4%). The overall mean annual number of ruptured AAA diagnoses (9,979 to 7,773, P < .0001) and overall mean annual deaths from a ruptured AAA decreased post-EVAR (5,338 to 3,901, P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS Since the introduction of EVAR, there has been a significant decrease in the annual number of deaths from both intact and ruptured AAA. This coincided with an increase in intact AAA repair after the introduction of EVAR and a decrease in ruptured AAA diagnosis and repair volume.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES The impact of risk factors upon perioperative mortality might differ for patients undergoing open versus endovascular repair (EVAR) of abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). In order to investigate this, we developed a differential predictive model of perioperative mortality after AAA repair. METHODS A total of 45,660 propensity score matched Medicare beneficiaries undergoing elective open or endovascular AAA repair from 2001–2004 were studied. Using half the dataset we developed a multiple logistic regression model for a matched cohort of open and EVAR patients and used this to derive an easily evaluable risk prediction score. The remainder of the dataset formed a validation cohort used to confirm results. RESULTS The derivation cohort included 11,415 open and 11,415 endovascular repairs. Perioperative mortality was 5.3% and 1.8% respectively. Independent predictors of mortality (RR, 95% CI) were open repair (3.2, 2.7–3.8), age (71–75 years 1.2, 0.9–1.6; 76–80 years 1.9, 1.4–2.5; >80 years 3.1, 2.4–4.2), female sex (1.5, 1.3–1.8), dialysis (2.6, 1.5–4.6), chronic renal insufficiency (2.0, 1.6–2.6), congestive heart failure (1.7, 1.5–2.1), and vascular disease (1.3, 1.2–1.6). There were no differential predictors of mortality across the two procedures. A simple scoring system was developed from a logistic regression model fit to both endovascular and open patients (area under the ROC curve of 72.6) from which low, medium, and high risk groups were developed. The absolute predicted mortality ranged from 0.7% for an EVAR patient ≤ 70 years of age with no comorbidities to 38% for an open patient > 80 with all the comorbidities considered. Although relative risk was similar among age groups, the absolute difference was greater for older patients (with higher baseline risk). CONCLUSIONS Mortality after AAA repair is predicted by comorbidities, sex, and age and these predictors have similar effects for both methods of AAA repair. This simple scoring system can predict repair mortality for both treatment options and thus may help guide clinical decisions.