Climate extreme events exert disproportionate impacts on ecosystems and humankind. Focusing on univariate statistics to estimate the harm from compound extreme events usually falls short in communicating the real risk. Here, the co-occurrence of hot, dry, and windy events (HDWs) in the central United States was analyzed over the period 1949–2018. Results demonstrate south-west Kansas and north Texas as locations where HDWs are more frequent. The combination of drought and a heatwave in 1980 and 2011, increased the likelihood of HDWs. Use of copula enables the study of the co-occurrence of multiple extremes. The copula approach identified a greater risk of HDWs compared with traditional empirical analysis. The dependence structure between the temperature, humidity, and wind variables showed no effect on the co-occurrence frequency of HDWs in the warm-season (May through September). Results suggest an increase in the risk of HDWs in spite of the historical wind speed drop across the majority of Great Plains. Multivariate perspectives are necessary for a more informed assessment of compound extremes risk and for improved design of adaption strategies.

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Simultaneous low humidity, high temperature, and high wind speeds disturb the water balance in plants, intensify evapotranspiration, and can ultimately lead to crop damage. In addition, these events have been linked to flash droughts and can play a critical role in the spread of human ignited wildfires. The spatial patterns and temporal changes of hot, dry, and windy events (HDWs) for two time periods, 1949 to 2018 (70-years) and 1969 to 2018 (50-years) were analyzed in the central United States. The highest frequencies of HDWs were observed at stations in western Kansas and west Texas. Annually, the highest number of events happened concurrently with the major heat waves and droughts in 1980 and 2011. Temporally, an overall decrease in the HDWs was significant in the eastern regions of North Dakota and South Dakota, and an upward trend was significant in Texas and the western part of the Great Plains. Significant trends in HDWs co-occurred more frequently with significant trends in extreme temperatures compared with low humidity or strong wind events. The results of this study provide valuable information on the location of places where HDWs are more likely to occur. The information provided could be used to improve water management strategies.

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