Studies sometimes estimate the prevalence of a disease from the results of one or more diagnostic tests that are applied to individuals of unknown disease status. This approach invariably means that, in the absence of a gold standard and without external constraints, more parameters must be estimated than the data permit. Two assumptions are regularly made in the literature, namely that the test characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) are constant over populations and the tests are conditionally independent given the true disease status. These assumptions have been criticized recently as being unrealistic. Nevertheless, to estimate the prevalence, some restrictions on the parameter estimates need to be imposed. We consider 2 types of restrictions: deterministic and probabilistic restrictions, the latter arising in a Bayesian framework when expert knowledge is available. Furthermore, we consider 2 possible parameterizations allowing incorporation of these restrictions. The first is an extension of the approach of Gardner et al and Dendukuri and Joseph to more than 2 diagnostic tests and assuming conditional dependence. We argue that this system of equations is difficult to combine with expert opinions. The second approach, based on conditional probabilities, looks more promising, and we develop this approach in a Bayesian context. To evaluate the combination of data with the (deterministic and probabilistic) constraints, we apply the recently developed Deviance Information Criterion and effective number of parameters estimated (pD) together with an appropriate Bayesian P value. We illustrate our approach using data collected in a study on the prevalence of porcine cysticercosis with verification from external data.

An epidemiological study of Trypanosoma evansi ( T. evansi ) infection in dromedaries was conducted in four wilayate (localities) of Southern Algeria: Béchar, El Bayadh, Ouargla, Tamanrasset. Between February 2014 and April 2016, 1056 camels of different ages and both sexes from 84 herds were sampled. The prevalence was determined through parasitological examination (Giemsa stained thin smear, GST), serological tests (CATT/ T. evansi , ELISA/VSG RoTat 1.2, immune trypanolysis), and molecular tests ( T. evansi type A specific RoTat 1.2 PCR and T. evansi type B specific EVAB PCR). The overall prevalence was 2.4 % with GST, 32.4% with CATT/ T. evansi , 23.1% with ELISA/VSG RoTat 1.2, 21.0% with immune trypanolysis (TL), 11.2 % with RoTat 1.2 PCR and 0% with EVAB PCR. El Bayadh was the most affected wilaya with 11.8% positives in GST, 74.9% in CATT/ T. evansi , 70.1% in ELISA/VSG RoTat 1.2 and 62.2% in immune trypanolysis. Only in Béchar, a non-significantly higher prevalence (13.6%) was observed with RoTat1.2 PCR than in El Bayadh (13.0%). We didn't find any evidence of the presence of T. evansi type B in the study area.

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With an expected sensitivity (Se) of 96% and specificity (Sp) of 98%, the immunofluorescence antibody test (IFAT) is frequently used as a reference test to validate new diagnostic methods and estimate the canine leihmaniasis (CanL) true prevalence in the Mediterranean basin. To review the diagnostic accuracy of IFAT to diagnose CanL in this area with reference to its Se and Sp and elucidate the potential causes of their variations, a systematic review was conducted (31 studies for the 26-year period). Three IFAT validation methods stood out: the classical contingency table method, methods based on statistical models and those based on experimental studies. A variation in the IFAT Se and Sp values and cut-off values was observed. For the classical validation method based on a meta-analysis, the Se of IFAT was estimated in this area as 89.86% and 31.25% in symptomatic and asymptomatic dogs, respectively. The Sp of IFAT was estimated in non-endemic and endemic areas as 98.12% and 96.57%, respectively. IFAT can be considered as a good standard test in non-endemic areas for CanL, but its accuracy declines in endemic areas due to the complexity of the disease. Indeed, the accuracy of IFAT is due to the negative results obtained in non-infected dogs from non-endemic areas and to the positive results obtained in sera of symptomatic dogs living in endemic areas. But IFAT results are not unequivocal when it comes to determining CanL infection on asymptomatic dogs living in endemic areas. Statistical methods might be a solution to overcome the lack of gold standard, to better categorize groups of animals investigated, to assess optimal cut-off values and to allow a better estimate of the true prevalence aiming information on preventive/control measures for CanL.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a zoonotic disease caused by Leishmania infantum, is endemic in Algeria. This report describes a retrospective epidemiological study conducted on human VL to document the epidemiological profile at national level. All human VL cases notified by the National Institute of Public Health between 1998 and 2008 were investigated. In parallel all VL cases admitted to the university hospitals of Algiers were surveyed to estimate the underreporting ratio. Fifteen hundred and sixty-two human VL cases were reported in Algeria between 1998–2008 with an average annual reported incidence rate of 0.45 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, of which 81.42% were in the age range of 0–4 years. Cases were detected year-round, with a peak notification in May and June. One hundred and seventy patients were admitted to the university hospitals in Algiers in the same period, of which less than one in ten had been officially notified. Splenomegaly, fever, pallor and pancytopenia were the main clinical and laboratory features. Meglumine antimoniate was the first-line therapy for paediatric VL whereas the conventional amphotericin B was used for adult patients. Visceral leishmaniasis in Algeria shows the epidemiological profile of a paediatric disease with a decrease of the annual reported incidence rate. However, vigilance is required because of huge underreporting and an apparent propagation towards the south.

A large-scale study on canine Leishmania infection (CanL) was conducted in six localities along a west-east transect in the Algerian littoral zone (Tlemcen, Mostaganem, Tipaza, Boumerdes, Bejaia, Jijel) and covering two sampling periods. In total 2,184 dogs were tested with an indirect fluorescent antibody test (IFAT) and a direct agglutination test (DAT). Combined multiple-testing and several statistical methods were compared to estimate the CanL true prevalence and tests characteristics (sensitivity and specificity). The Bayesian full model showed the best fit and yielded prevalence estimates between 11% (Mostaganem, first period) and 38% (Bejaia, second period). Sensitivity of IFAT varied (in function of locality) between 86% and 88% while its specificity varied between 65% and 87%. DAT was less sensitive than IFAT but showed a higher specificity (between 80% and 95% in function of locality or/and season). A general increasing trend of the CanL prevalence was noted from west to east. A concordance between the present results and the incidence of human cases of visceral leishmaniasis was observed, where also a maximum was recorded for Bejaia. The results of the present study highlight the dangers when using IFAT as a gold standard.

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