Myanmar experienced multiple COVID shocks as well as a military takeover in February 2021. Impacts on household poverty remain uncertain, however, because large‐scale in‐person surveys were impossible during the pandemic and heightened internal conflict. We use ex ante simulation models and phone survey evidence to estimate the poverty effects of these shocks and identify factors correlated with them. While each approach has limitations, and cannot explicitly validate each other, they both indicate rising rural and urban poverty and capital‐depleting coping mechanisms. Wider use of simulation modeling could help mobilize social protection faster than waiting for survey results in emergencies.

The COVID-19 crisis has severely disrupted economic activities in Myanmar. A sharp reduction in economic growth and large increases in poverty and food insecurity are anticipated. We explore the associated risks the crisis poses for maternal and child malnutrition and identify actions to mitigate adverse nutritional impacts. Prior to COVID-19, many mothers and children in Myanmar were nutritionally vulnerable. Among children under five years of age, 58 percent were anemic, 29 percent were stunted, and 7 percent were wasted. Twelve percent of women were underweight, but with large variations across regions. On the supply side, access to nutrition services were limited. Dietary practices are poor with just 22 percent of children aged 6 to 23 months consuming adequately diverse diets. A multi-country analysis of Demographic Health Surveys in 52 countries models how declines in economic growth contribute to increases in child wasting. This model predicts that the projected 8.6 percentage-point drop in the rate of national income growth in Myanmar in 2020 may lead to over 110,000 extra underfives becoming wasted. These children will be at increased risk of not surviving to their fifth birthday. Declining incomes due to the COVID-19 crisis, as well as disruptions to Myanmar's food systems, could reduce caloric intake for the most vulnerable. But the main impact is likely to be a significant reduction in dietary diversity. This partially explains the increased risk of wasting, stunting, and micronutrient deficiencies, such as anemia. Health surveillance data suggests that the COVID-19 lockdown from April 2020 onwards resulted in major disruptions to government maternal and child health services, with vaccinations rates almost falling to zero. There are also significant concerns that fear of mother-to-child transmission of COVID-19 could lead to early cessation of breastfeeding, which poses significant health risks for infants.

This working paper synthesizes findings from four large household and community surveys in Myanmar, each covering a major agro-ecological zone, to evaluate inter-regional variations in the composition of agriculture, livelihoods, and the rural economy, and prospects for production and income growth. We find the following:1. With the partial exception of paddy, most field crop production is strongly commercially oriented, and most farmers are well-integrated into markets.

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