Abstract Background The just-in-time adaptive intervention (JITAI) is an intervention design aiming to provide the right type/amount of support, at the right time, by adapting to an individual’s changing internal and contextual state. The availability of increasingly powerful mobile and sensing technologies underpins the use of JITAIs to support health behavior, as in such a setting an individual’s state can change rapidly, unexpectedly, and in his/her natural environment. Purpose Despite the increasing use and appeal of JITAIs, a major gap exists between the growing technological capabilities for delivering JITAIs and research on the development and evaluation of these interventions. Many JITAIs have been developed with minimal use of empirical evidence, theory, or accepted treatment guidelines. Here, we take an essential first step towards bridging this gap. Methods Building on health behavior theories and the extant literature on JITAIs, we clarify the scientific motivation for JITAIs, define their fundamental components, and highlight design principles related to these components. Examples of JITAIs from various domains of health behavior research are used for illustration. Conclusions As we enter a new era of technological capacity for delivering JITAIs, it is critical that researchers develop sophisticated and nuanced health behavior theories capable of guiding the construction of such interventions. Particular attention has to be given to better understanding the implications of providing timely and ecologically sound support for intervention adherence and retention

Objective This paper presents an experimental design, the micro-randomized trial, developed to support optimization of just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs). JITAIs are mHealth technologies that aim to deliver the right intervention components at the right times and locations to optimally support individuals’ health behaviors. Micro-randomized trials offer a way to optimize such interventions by enabling modeling of causal effects and time-varying effect moderation for individual intervention components within a JITAI. Methods The paper describes the micro-randomized trial design, enumerates research questions that this experimental design can help answer, and provides an overview of the data analyses that can be used to assess the causal effects of studied intervention components and investigate time-varying moderation of those effects. Results Micro-randomized trials enable causal modeling of proximal effects of the randomized intervention components and assessment of time-varying moderation of those effects. Conclusions Micro-randomized trials can help researchers understand whether their interventions are having intended effects, when and for whom they are effective, and what factors moderate the interventions’ effects, enabling creation of more effective JITAIs.

Abstract. Binary classification methods can be generalized in many ways to handle multiple classes. It turns out that not all generalizations preserve the nice property of Bayes consistency. We provide a necessary and sufficient condition for consistency which applies to a large class of multiclass classification methods. The approach is illustrated by applying it to some multiclass methods proposed in the literature.

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The use and development of mobile interventions are experiencing rapid growth. In "just-in-time" mobile interventions, treatments are provided via a mobile device and they are intended to help an individual make healthy decisions "in the moment," and thus have a proximal, near future impact. Currently the development of mobile interventions is proceeding at a much faster pace than that of associated data science methods. A first step toward developing data-based methods is to provide an experimental design for testing the proximal effects of these just-in-time treatments. In this paper, we propose a "micro-randomized" trial design for this purpose. In a micro-randomized trial, treatments are sequentially randomized throughout the conduct of the study, with the result that each participant may be randomized at the 100s or 1000s of occasions at which a treatment might be provided. Further, we develop a test statistic for assessing the proximal effect of a treatment as well as an associated sample size calculator. We conduct simulation evaluations of the sample size calculator in various settings. Rules of thumb that might be used in designing a micro-randomized trial are discussed. This work is motivated by our collaboration on the HeartSteps mobile application designed to increase physical activity.

We consider the problem of link prediction in signed networks. Such networks arise on the web in a variety of ways when users can implicitly or explicitly tag their relationship with other users as positive or negative. The signed links thus created reflect social attitudes of the users towards each other in terms of friendship or trust. Our first contribution is to show how any quantitative measure of social imbalance in a network can be used to derive a link prediction algorithm. Our framework allows us to reinterpret some existing algorithms as well as derive new ones. Second, we extend the approach of [6], by presenting a supervised machine learning based link prediction method that uses features derived from longer cycles in the network. The supervised method outperforms all previous approaches on 3 networks drawn from sources such as Epinions, Slashdot and Wikipedia. The supervised approach easily scales to these networks, the largest of which has 132k nodes and 841k edges. Most real-world networks have an overwhelmingly large proportion of positive edges and it is therefore easy to get a high overall accuracy at the cost of a high false positive rate. We see that our supervised method not only achieves good accuracy for sign prediction but is also especially effective in lowering the false positive rate.

Correctly identifying associations of genes with diseases has long been a goal in biology. With the emergence of large-scale gene-phenotype association datasets in biology, we can leverage statistical and machine learning methods to help us achieve this goal. In this paper, we present two methods for predicting gene-disease associations based on functional gene associations and gene-phenotype associations in model organisms. The first method, the Katz measure, is motivated from its success in social network link prediction, and is very closely related to some of the recent methods proposed for gene-disease association inference. The second method, called Catapult (Combining dATa Across species using Positive-Unlabeled Learning Techniques), is a supervised machine learning method that uses a biased support vector machine where the features are derived from walks in a heterogeneous gene-trait network. We study the performance of the proposed methods and related state-of-the-art methods using two different evaluation strategies, on two distinct data sets, namely OMIM phenotypes and drug-target interactions. Finally, by measuring the performance of the methods using two different evaluation strategies, we show that even though both methods perform very well, the Katz measure is better at identifying associations between traits and poorly studied genes, whereas Catapult is better suited to correctly identifying gene-trait associations overall.The authors want to thank Jon Laurent and Kris McGary for some of the data used, and Li and Patra for making their code available. Most of Ambuj Tewari's contribution to this work happened while he was a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Texas at Austin.

We establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a uniform martingale Law of Large Numbers. We extend the technique of symmetrization to the case of dependent random variables and provide "sequential" (noni.i.d.) analogues of various classical measures of complexity, such as covering numbers and combinatorial dimensions from empirical process theory. We establish relationships between these various sequential complexity measures and show that they provide a tight control on the uniform convergence rates for empirical processes with dependent data. As a direct application of our results, we provide exponential inequalities for sums of martingale differences in Banach spaces.Keywords empirical processes, dependent data, uniform Glivenko-Cantelli classes, rademacher averages, sequential prediction Disciplines Statistics and ProbabilityThis journal article is available at ScholarlyCommons: http://repository.upenn.edu/statistics_papers/531 Sequential Complexities and Uniform Martingale Laws of Large NumbersAlexander Rakhlin Karthik Sridharan Ambuj TewariSeptember 19, 2013 AbstractWe establish necessary and sufficient conditions for a uniform martingale Law of Large Numbers. We extend the technique of symmetrization to the case of dependent random variables and provide "sequential" (non-i.i.d.) analogues of various classical measures of complexity, such as covering numbers and combinatorial dimensions from empirical process theory. We establish relationships between these various sequential complexity measures and show that they provide a tight control on the uniform convergence rates for empirical processes with dependent data. As a direct application of our results, we provide exponential inequalities for sums of martingale differences in Banach spaces.