IMPORTANCEThe COVID-19 pandemic has affected every aspect of medical care, including surgical treatment. It is critical to understand the association of government policies and infection burden with surgical access across the United States. OBJECTIVE To describe the change in surgical procedure volume in the US after the governmentsuggested shutdown and subsequent peak surge in volume of patients with COVID-19. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This retrospective cohort study was conducted using administrative claims from a nationwide health care technology clearinghouse. Claims from pediatric and adult patients undergoing surgical procedures in 49 US states within the Change Healthcare network of health care institutions were used. Surgical procedure volume during the 2020 initial COVID-19-related shutdown and subsequent fall and winter infection surge were compared with volume in 2019. Data were analyzed from November 2020 through July 2021. EXPOSURES 2020 policies to curtail elective surgical procedures and the incidence rate of patients with COVID-19. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated from a Poisson regression comparing total procedure counts during the initial shutdown (March 15 to May 2, 2020)

IMPORTANCEFrailty is an important risk factor for postoperative mortality. Whether the association between frailty and mortality is consistent across all surgical specialties, especially those predominantly performing lower stress procedures, remains unknown.OBJECTIVE To examine the association between frailty and postoperative mortality across surgical specialties. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSA cohort study was conducted across 9 noncardiac specialties in hospitals participating in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP) and Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2014, using multivariable logistic regression to evaluate the association between frailty and postoperative mortality. Data analysis was conducted from September 15, 2019, to April 30, 2020. Patients 18 years or older undergoing noncardiac procedures were included.EXPOSURES Risk Analysis Index measuring preoperative frailty categorized patients as robust (Risk Analysis Index Յ20), normal (21-29), frail (30-39), or very frail (Ն40). Operative Stress Score (OSS) categorized procedures as low (1-2), moderate (3), and high (4-5) stress. Specialties were categorized by case-mix as predominantly low intensity (>75% OSS 1-2), moderate intensity (50%-75%), or high intensity (<50%).MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Thirty-day (both measures) and 180-day (VASQIP only) postoperative mortality. RESULTSOf the patients evaluated in NSQIP (n = 2 339 031), 1 309 795 were women (56.0%) and mean (SD) age was 56.49 (16.4) years. Of the patients evaluated in VASQIP (n = 426 578), 395 761 (92.78%) were men and mean (SD) age was 61.1 (12.9) years. Overall, 30-day mortality was 1.2% in NSQIP and 1.0% in VASQIP, and 180-day mortality in VASQIP was 3.4%. Frailty and OSS distributions differed substantially across the 9 specialties. Patterns of 30-day mortality for frail and very frail patients were similar in NSQIP and VASQIP for low-, moderate-, and high-intensity specialties. Frailty was a consistent, independent risk factor for 30-and 180-day mortality across all specialties. For example, in NSQIP, for plastic surgery, a low-intensity specialty, the odds of 30-day mortality in very frail (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 27.99; 95% CI,) and frail (aOR, 5.1; 95% CI, 3.03-8.58) patients were statistically significantly higher than for normal patients. This was also true in neurosurgery, a moderate-intensity specialty, for very frail (aOR, 9.8; 95% CI, 7.68-12.50) and frail (aOR, 4.18; 95% CI, 3.58-4.89) patients and in vascular surgery, a high-intensity specialty, for very frail (aOR, 10.85; 95% CI, 9.83-11.96) and frail (aOR, 3.42; 95% CI, 3.19-3.67) patients. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEIn this study, frailty was associated with postoperative mortality across all noncardiac surgical specialties regardless of case-mix. Preoperative frailty assessment could be implemented across all specialties to facilitate risk stratification and shared decision-making.

Background Existing universal and procedure-specific surgical risk prediction models of death and major complications after elective total joint arthroplasty (TJA) have limitations including poor transparency, poor to modest accuracy, and insufficient validation to establish performance across diverse settings. Thus, the need remains for accurate and validated prediction models for use in preoperative management, informed consent, shared decision-making, and risk adjustment for reimbursement. Questions/purposes The purpose of this study was to use machine learning methods and large national databases to develop and validate (both internally and externally) parsimonious risk-prediction models for mortality and complications after TJA. Methods Preoperative demographic and clinical variables from all 107,792 nonemergent primary THAs and TKAs in the 2013 to 2014 American College of Surgeons-National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) were evaluated as predictors of 30-day death and major complications. The NSQIP database was chosen for its high-quality data on important outcomes and rich characterization of preoperative demographic and clinical predictors for demographically and geographically diverse patients. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, a type of machine learning that optimizes accuracy and parsimony, was used for model development. Tenfold validation was used to produce C-statistics, a measure of how well models discriminate patients who experience an outcome from those who do not. External validation, which evaluates the generalizability of the models to new data sources and patient groups, was accomplished using data from the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP). Models previously developed from VASQIP data were also externally validated using NSQIP data to examine the generalizability of their performance with a different group of patients outside the VASQIP context. Results The models, developed using LASSO regression with diverse clinical (for example, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, comorbidities) and demographic (for example, age, gender) inputs, had good accuracy in terms of discriminating the likelihood a patient would experience, within 30 days of arthroplasty, a renal complication (C-statistic, 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.76-0.80), death (0.73; 95% CI, 0.70-0.76), or a cardiac complication (0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) from one who would not. By contrast, the models demonstrated poor accuracy for venous thromboembolism (C-statistic, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.60-0.62) and any complication (C-statistic, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.63-0.65). External validation of the NSQIP- derived models using VASQIP data found them to be robust in terms of predictions about mortality and cardiac complications, but not for predicting renal complications. Models previously developed with VASQIP data had poor accuracy when externally validated with NSQIP data, suggesting they should not be used outside the context of the Veterans Health Administration. Conclusions Moderately accurate predictive models of 30-day mortality and cardiac complications after elective primary TJA were developed as well as internally and externally validated. To our knowledge, these are the most accurate and rigorously validated TJA-specific prediction models currently available (http://med.stanford.edu/s-spire/Resources/clinical-tools-.html). Methods to improve these models, including the addition of nonstandard inputs such as natural language processing of preoperative clinical progress notes or radiographs, should be pursued as should the development and validation of models to predict longer term improvements in pain and function. Level of Evidence Level III, diagnostic study.

Background Women in low and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have equal access to resources, such as education, employment, or healthcare compared to men. We sought to explore health disparities and associations between gender prioritization, sociocultural factors, and household decision-making in Central Malawi. Methods From June–August 2017, a cross-sectional study with 200 participants was conducted in Central Malawi. We evaluated respondents’ access to care, prioritization within households, decision-making power, and gender equity which was measured using the Gender-Equitable Men (GEM) scale. Relationships between these outcomes and sociodemographic factors were analyzed using multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression. Results We found that women were less likely than men to secure community-sourced healthcare financial aid (68.6% vs. 88.8%, p < 0.001) and more likely to underutilize necessary healthcare (37.2% vs. 22.4%, p = 0.02). Both men and women revealed low GEM scores, indicating adherence to traditional gender norms, though women were significantly less equitable (W:16.77 vs. M:17.65, p = 0.03). Being a woman (Odds Ratio (OR) 0.41, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.21–0.78) and prioritizing a woman as a decision-maker for large purchases (OR 0.38, CI 0.15–0.93) were independently associated with a lower likelihood of prioritizing women for medical treatment and being a member of the Chewa tribal group (OR 3.87, CI 1.83–8.18) and prioritizing women for education (OR 4.13, CI 2.13–8.01) was associated with a higher odds. Conclusion Women report greater barriers to healthcare and adhere to more traditional gender roles than men in this Central Malawian population. Women contribute to their own gender’s barriers to care and economic empowerment alone is not enough to correct for these socially constructed roles. We found that education and matriarchal societies may protect against gender disparities. Overall, internal and external gender discrimination contribute to a woman’s disproportionate lack of access to care.

Key Points Question Is frailty, as measured by the Risk Analysis Index, associated with risk for unplanned readmission after elective outpatient surgery? Findings In this cohort study of 417 840 patients in the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, frailty was associated with an increased risk for unplanned readmissions after elective outpatient surgery. Mediation analysis showed that the association of frailty with readmission was partially mediated by occurrence of complications. Meaning Surgical patients may benefit from screening for frailty to decrease complications and unplanned readmissions after surgery.

BackgroundOnline weight loss programs are increasingly popular. However, little is known about outcomes and associations with website usage among members of free online weight loss programs.ObjectiveThis retrospective cohort study examined the association between website usage and weight loss among members of a free commercial online weight loss program (SparkPeople).MethodsWe conducted a retrospective analysis of a systematic random sample of members who joined the program during February 1 to April 30, 2008, and included follow-up data through May 10, 2010. The main outcome was net weight change based on self-reported weight. Measures of website usage included log-ins, self-monitoring entries (weight, food, exercise), and use of social support tools (discussion forums, friendships). ResultsThe main sample included 1258 members with at least 2 weight entries. They were 90.7% female, with mean (SD) age 33.6 (11.0) and mean (SD) BMI 31.6 (7.7). Members with at least one forum post lost an additional 1.55 kg (95% CI 0.55 kg to 2.55 kg) relative to those with no forum posts. Having at least 4 log-in days, weight entry days, or food entry days per 30 days was significantly associated with weight loss. In the multiple regression analysis, members with at least 4 weight entry days per 30 days reported 5.09 kg (95% CI 3.29 kg to 6.88 kg) more weight loss per 30 days than those with fewer weight entry days. After controlling for weight entry days, the other website usage variables were not associated with weight change.ConclusionsWeekly or more frequent self-monitoring of weight is associated with greater weight loss among members of this free online weight loss program.

professionals have shown significant interest in nonoperative management for uncomplicated appendicitis, but long-term population-level data are lacking.

IMPORTANCERecent legislation facilitates veterans' ability to receive non-Veterans Affairs (VA) surgical care. However, contemporary data comparing the quality and safety of VA and non-VA surgical care are lacking.OBJECTIVE To compare perioperative outcomes among veterans treated in VA hospitals with patients treated in private-sector hospitals.