and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. OBJECTIVE To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. EVIDENCE REVIEWThe GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs).FINDINGS In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCEThe results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.
Background Hearing loss affects access to spoken language, which can affect cognition and development, and can negatively affect social wellbeing. We present updated estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study on the prevalence of hearing loss in 2019, as well as the condition's associated disability. Methods We did systematic reviews of population-representative surveys on hearing loss prevalence from 1990 to 2019. We fitted nested meta-regression models for severity-specific prevalence, accounting for hearing aid coverage, cause, and the presence of tinnitus. We also forecasted the prevalence of hearing loss until 2050. Findings An estimated 1•57 billion (95% uncertainty interval 1•51-1•64) people globally had hearing loss in 2019, accounting for one in five people (20•3% [19•5-21•1]). Of these, 403•3 million (357•3-449•5) people had hearing loss that was moderate or higher in severity after adjusting for hearing aid use, and 430•4 million (381•7-479•6) without adjustment. The largest number of people with moderate-to-complete hearing loss resided in the Western Pacific region (127•1 million people [112•3-142•6]). Of all people with a hearing impairment, 62•1% (60•2-63•9) were older than 50 years. The Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index explained 65•8% of the variation in national agestandardised rates of years lived with disability, because countries with a low HAQ Index had higher rates of years lived with disability. By 2050, a projected 2•45 billion (2•35-2•56) people will have hearing loss, a 56•1% (47•3-65•2) increase from 2019, despite stable age-standardised prevalence. Interpretation As populations age, the number of people with hearing loss will increase. Interventions such as childhood screening, hearing aids, effective management of otitis media and meningitis, and cochlear implants have the potential to ameliorate this burden. Because the burden of moderate-to-complete hearing loss is concentrated in countries with low health-care quality and access, stronger health-care provision mechanisms are needed to reduce the burden of unaddressed hearing loss in these settings. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO.
Background In Ethiopia, morbidity and mortality due to diarrhea is significantly high. Most importantly, burden of diarrhea is disproportionately high among under-five children. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess the prevalence and factors associated with diarrhea among children younger than 5 years old in Bahir Dar city, Northwest, Ethiopia, 2016. Methods This community-based cross-sectional study was conducted among under-five years-old children from March 24 to April 12, 2016. Systematic sampling technique was used to select 498 households. Data were collected by using an interviewer administered questionnaire. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were employed to identify predictor variables. Factors with a p -value of < 0.05 were considered as independently associated with diarrhea. Results The 2 weeks prevalence of diarrhea among under five children was 14.5%. Lack of hand washing facilities in the household (AOR = 3.910 (1.770, 8.634)), lack of separate feeding materials (AOR = 5.769 (1.591, 9.220)), poor hand washing practice (AOR = 6.104 (2.100, 17.738)) and not breastfeeding (AOR = 2.3 (1.023, 5.46)) were predictors of the concurrence of diarrhea. Conclusions The prevalence of diarrhea in the study area was slightly higher than the 2016, Ethiopian Demography and Health Survey finding which was 12%. Thus, improving handwashing facilities and practices, serving the food to the child with a separate materials and encourage optimal breastfeeding were recommended. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12879-019-4030-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
BackgroundHealth seeking behavior is an action taken by an individual who perceive to have a health problem. In most developing countries including Ethiopia the health of the children is strongly dependant on maternal health care behavior. Most childhood morbidities and mortalities are associated with low level of mothers health care seeking behavior. Therefore, the objective of this study was to assess level of modern health care seeking behavior among mothers having under five children in Dangila town, North West Ethiopia.MethodsCommunity based quantitative cross-sectional study was conducted from April 15 to May 15, 2016. Systematic random sampling technique was used to select study participants. A total of273 mothers with children less than five years were included in this study. The data was collected from all five Kebeles using interviewer administered questionnaire. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to present the data. Both bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify factors associated with level of modern health care seeking behavior.ResultsPrevalence of modern health care seeking behavior was 82.1%. Age of mothers (AOR = 2.4(1.1, 5.3), age of the child (AOR = 6.7(2.8, 22.2), severity of illness (AOR = 5.2(1.2, 22.6) and family number (AOR = 6.4(2.1, 20.2) were predictors of modern health care seeking behavior among mothers.ConclusionsMajority of the mothers preferred to take their children to modern health care when they got illness. Age of children, age of mother, number of family and severity of illness were the determinant factors for modern health care seeking behavior. Therefore, health care services should be strengthened at community level through community integrated management of childhood illness, information, education communication / behavioral change communication strategies to improve mothers health care seeking behaviors.
Background The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic.Methods To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0•03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1•0). FindingsIn 2019, there were 36•8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35•1-38•9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0•84 males (95% UI 0•78-0•91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0•99 male infections (0•91-1•10) for every female infection, and 1•02 male deaths (0•95-1•10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28•52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19•58-35•43, and a 39•66% decrease in deaths, 36•49-42•36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0•05 (95% UI 0•05-0•06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1•94 (1•76-2•12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress.Interpretation Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics.
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