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The behaviour of many processes in science and engineering can be accurately described by dynamical system models consisting of a set of ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Often these models have several unknown parameters that are difficult to estimate from experimental data, in which case Bayesian inference can be a useful tool. In principle, exact Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is possible; however, in practice, such methods may suffer from slow convergence and poor mixing. To address this problem, several approaches based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been introduced, including Markov chain Monte Carlo ABC (MCMC ABC) and sequential Monte Carlo ABC (SMC ABC). While the system of ODEs describes the underlying process that generates the data, the observed measurements invariably include errors. In this paper, we argue that several popular ABC approaches fail to adequately model these errors because the acceptance probability depends on the choice of the discrepancy function and the tolerance without any consideration of the error term. We observe that the so-called posterior distributions derived from such methods do not accurately reflect the epistemic uncertainties in parameter values. Moreover, we demonstrate that these methods provide minimal computational advantages over exact Bayesian methods when applied to two ODE epidemiological models with simulated data and one with real data concerning malaria transmission in Afghanistan.

A B S T R A C TSmartphone based periocular recognition has gained significant attention from biometric research community because of the limitations of biometric modalities like face, iris etc. Most of the existing methods for periocular recognition employ hand-crafted features. Recently, learning based image representation techniques like deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) have shown outstanding performance in many visual recognition tasks. CNN needs a huge volume of data for its learning, but for periocular recognition only limited amount of data is available. The solution is to use CNN pre-trained on the dataset from the related domain, in this case the challenge is to extract efficiently the discriminative features. Using a pertained CNN model (VGG-Net), we propose a simple, efficient and compact image representation technique that takes into account the wealth of information and sparsity existing in the activations of the convolutional layers and employs principle component analysis. For recognition, we use an efficient and robust Sparse Augmented Collaborative Representation based Classification (SA-CRC) technique. For thorough evaluation of ConvSRC (the proposed system), experiments were carried out on the VISOB challenging database which was presented for periocular recognition competition in ICIP2016. The obtained results show the superiority of ConvSRC over the state-of-the-art methods; it obtains a GMR of more than 99% at FMR = 10 -3 and outperforms the first winner of ICIP2016 challenge by 10%.

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In this article, we use Lehmann alternative-II to extend the odd generalized exponential family. The uniqueness of this family lies in the fact that this transformation has resulted in a multitude of inverted distribution families with important applications in actuarial field. We can characterize the density of the new family as a linear combination of generalised exponential distributions, which is useful for studying some of the family’s properties. Among the structural characteristics of this family that are being identified are explicit expressions for numerous types of moments, the quantile function, stress-strength reliability, generating function, Rényi entropy, stochastic ordering, and order statistics. The maximum likelihood methodology is often used to compute the new family’s parameters. To confirm that our results are converging with reduced mean square error and biases, we perform a simulation analysis of one of the special model, namely OGE2-Fréchet. Furthermore, its application using two actuarial data sets is achieved, favoring its superiority over other competitive models, especially in risk theory.

In this article, a structural modification of the Kumaraswamy distribution yields a new two-parameter distribution defined on (0,1), called the modified Kumaraswamy distribution. It has the advantages of being (i) original in its definition, mixing logarithmic, power and ratio functions, (ii) flexible from the modeling viewpoint, with rare functional capabilities for a bounded distribution—in particular, N-shapes are observed for both the probability density and hazard rate functions—and (iii) a solid alternative to its parental Kumaraswamy distribution in the first-order stochastic sense. Some statistical features, such as the moments and quantile function, are represented in closed form. The Lambert function and incomplete beta function are involved in this regard. The distributions of order statistics are also explored. Then, emphasis is put on the practice of the modified Kumaraswamy model in the context of data fitting. The well-known maximum likelihood approach is used to estimate the parameters, and a simulation study is conducted to examine the performance of this approach. In order to demonstrate the applicability of the suggested model, two real data sets are considered. As a notable result, for the considered data sets, statistical benchmarks indicate that the new modeling strategy outperforms the Kumaraswamy model. The transmuted Kumaraswamy, beta, unit Rayleigh, Topp–Leone and power models are also outperformed.