In this paper we investigate the impact of credit rating changes on German stock market. We evaluate daily abnormal stock returns of companies listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange (HDAX). Rating upgrades and downgrades are made by three rating agencies: Moody's, Standard and Poor's, and Fitch Ratings. We find that rating announcements are largely anticipated, i.e. German market adjusts stock prices long before the rating changes have been made. Additionally, we report that the market, along with anticipating the rating change, reacts stronger to downgrades compared to upgrades.
Empirical tests of purchasing power parity (PPP) are implicitly based on the conditions of symmetry and proportionality of the price coefficients. We investigate a separate condition, which we term homogeneity. Specifically, while there may be factors that drive a wedge between prices and exchange rates, when these factors are held constant we would expect a change in exchange rates to be associated with a proportional, or homogeneous, change in prices. To test for the existence of homogeneity in prices, we conduct two experiments. First, we apply a time-varyingcoefficient procedure to nine euro-area countries as well as the euro area as a whole during the (monthly) sample period, 1999: M1 to 2011:M3. Second we apply the same procedure to the same group of countries, plus Canada, Japan and Mexico, over the longer period, 1957:M4 to 2011:M3. We find that averages of the price coefficients, corrected for specification biases, are uniformly homogeneous in the long run, providing strong support for PPP.
Do changes in oil prices have an effect on stocks of oil companies in emerging markets? Do the shares of oil companies in emerging markets react to the price news in a similar way as those of the Western companies? This paper aims to answer these questions utilizing event study techniques. As expected, the results of both parametric and nonparametric tests suggest that the fluctuations in oil prices have an effect on the stock prices. However, an interesting result is that the responses of stocks of Chinese and Russian oil companies are considerably different from the shares of their Western counterparts.
We investigate bilateral currency pressures against the U.S. dollar for three currencies: the Japanese yen, the Chinese yuan, and the U.K. pound during the period 2000:Q1 to 2009:Q4. We employ a model-based methodology to measure exchange market pressure over the period. Conversion factors required to estimate the pressure on these currencies are computed using a time-varying coefficient regression. We then use our measures of currency pressures to assess deviations of exchange rates from their market-equilibrium levels. For the yen, our measure of currency pressure suggests undervaluation during the initial part of our estimation period, a period during which the Bank of Japan sold yen in the foreign exchange market. We find persistent undervaluation of the yuan throughout the estimation period, with the undervaluation peaking at about 20 per cent in 2004 and 2007. For the pound, the results indicate low pressure-suggesting a mainly free-floating currency-throughout the sample period. These results appear consistent with the policies pursued by the central banks of the currencies in question.
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