International audienceIn recent years, pirate attacks against shipping and oil field installations have become more frequent and more serious. This article proposes an innovative solution to the problem of offshore piracy from the perspective of the entire processing chain: from the detection of a potential threat to the implementation of a response. The response to an attack must take into account multiple variables: the characteristics of the threat and the potential target, existing protection tools, environmental constraints, etc. The potential of Bayesian networks is used to manage this large number of parameters and identify appropriate counter-measures

Abstract. In recent years pirate attacks against shipping and oil fields have continued to increase in quantity and severity. For example, the attack against the Exxon Mobil oil rig in 2010 off the coast of Nigeria ended in the kidnap of 19 crew members and a reduction in daily oil production of 45,000 barrels, which resulted in an international rise in the price of oil. This example is a perfect illustration of current weaknesses in existing anti-piracy systems. The SARGOS project proposes an innovative system to address this problem. It takes into account the entire threat treatment process; from the detection of a potential threat to implementation of the response. The response to an attack must take into account all of the many parameters related to the threat, the potential target, the available protection resources, environmental constraints, etc. To manage these parameters, the power of Bayesian networks is harnessed to identify potential countermeasures and the means to manage them.

International audienceThis article describes an innovative system to protect offshore oil infrastructure against maritime piracy. To detect and respond efficiently to this threat, many factors must be taken into account, including the potential target, the protection methods already in place and operational and environmental constraints, etc. To improve the handling of this complex issue, we have designed a system to manage the entire processing chain; from threat identification to implementation of the response. The system implements Bayesian networks in order to capture the multitude of parameters and their inherent uncertainties, and to identify and manage potential responses. This article describes the system architecture, the integrated Bayesian network and its contribution to response planning

In recent years, pirate attacks against shipping and oil field installations have become more frequent and more serious. The SARGOS system provides an innovative solution that addresses the problem from the perspective of the entire processing chain; from the detection of a potential threat to the implementation of a response. The response to an attack must take into account multiple variables: the characteristics of the threat and the potential target, existing protection tools, environmental constraints, etc. The potential of Bayesian networks is used to manage this large number of parameters and identify appropriate counter-measures.

L'article développe et discute le projet de conception d'un outil d'aide à la décision fondé sur les modèles de l'analyse probabiliste. Le concept de réseaux bayésiens « dynamiques » a été retenu afin de créer un modèle graphique d'aide à la décision dans un univers incertain. La construction de ce type de réseaux bayésiens permet d'incorporer au sein de bases de connaissances des distributions de probabilités utiles pour la prédiction du futur en tenant compte du passé. L'article a donc pour but de décrire la démarche méthodologique qui a permis de concevoir un prototype visant à planifier les contre-mesures à appliquer contre les attaques de piraterie à l'encontre d'une plateforme pétrolière en mer. Le prototype accompagne la prise de décision en tenant compte de l'influence de la décision prise au temps T-1 sur la décision à prendre au temps T. Une étude comparative entre les réseaux bayésiens dits « statiques » et les réseaux bayésiens dits « dynamiques » est conduite dans le double but d'en montrer les différences et les usages complémentaires.