The main aim of this study is to explore the linkages between innovation capacity, business sophistication, and macroeconomic stability within OECD countries. In order to obtain information regarding the relationship between time series variables, the Pedroni cointegration, Kao cointegration, fully modified ordinary least square, dynamic ordinary least square, Granger causality, and Dumitrescu Hurlin causality tests are employed. The empirical results reveal that improvement in business sophistication triggers innovation capacity and support macroeconomic stability. Innovation capacity would also need to be expanded in the long-run, which positively leads to advanced business sophistication that has a cyclical effect. If policymakers intend to accelerate business sophistication, then their attention should be directed towards maximizing the economic indicators in the long-run. To the best of our knowledge, the linkage between innovation capacity, business sophistication and macroeconomic stability in OECD countries has not been comprehensively explored through the use of a single dataset. Thus, the findings of this study could lead to a new debate regarding the concept.
Extreme returns in stock returns need to be captured for a successful risk management function to estimate unexpected loss in portfolio. Traditional value-at-risk models based on parametric models are not able to capture the extremes in emerging markets where high volatility and nonlinear behaviors in returns are observed. The Extreme Value Theory (EVT) with conditional quantile proposed by McNeil and Frey (2000) is based on the central limit theorem applied to the extremes rater than mean of the return distribution. It limits the distribution of extreme returns always has the same form without relying on the distribution of the parent variable. This paper uses 8 filtered EVT models created with conditional quantile to estimate value-at-risk for the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE). The performances of the filtered expected shortfall models are compared to those of GARCH, GARCH with student-t distribution, GARCH with skewed student-t distribution and FIGARCH by using alternative back-testing algorithms, namely, Kupiec test (1995), Christoffersen test (1998), Lopez test (1999), RMSE (70 days) h-step ahead forecasting RMSE (70 days), number of exception and h-step ahead number of exception. The test results show that the filtered expected shortfall has better performance on capturing fat-tails in the stock returns than parametric value-at-risk models do. Besides increase in conditional quantile decreases h-step ahead number of exceptions and this shows that filtered expected shortfall with higher conditional quantile such as 40 days should be used for forward looking forecasting.
PurposeIntroducing radical changes to the methodologies for the determination of capital requirements, the final stage of the Basel III standards, which is referred to as “Basel IV” by the industry, will be a significant challenge for the global banking sector. This article reviews the main components of the new framework, analyses its ongoing implementation in the European Union and discusses its potential impact on banks, putting forward policy recommendations.Design/methodology/approachThis article uses primary sources such as the publications by the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision and the European Commission. It also reviews the secondary sources, including both academic articles and analyses by various stakeholders. However, this article does not undertake any empirical analysis.FindingsThis article discusses that Basel IV will introduce strategic, operational and regulatory challenges for banks in scope. It also identifies a number of areas which are subject to further debate in the European Union such as the enhanced due diligence requirements under the new credit risk framework; governance, reporting and control rules under the operational risk framework; exemptions for certain derivative transactions under the credit valuation adjustment framework and the level of application of the capital floors within banking groups. This article concludes that the global implementation of the reforms by all jurisdictions and transposition into national banking laws concurrently with the European Union in line with the Basel Committee's implementation timeline is important from a financial stability standpoint.Originality/valueThe article presents an up-to-date and comprehensive review of the practical implications of Basel IV standards. It analyses the implementation of the standards in the case of the European Union, reviews the potential policy implications and presents recommendations for risk management practitioners.
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