Zonation of the territory of Karaganda region (Central Kazakhstan) on the level of tuberculosis incidence has not been carried out so far. The long-term dynamics of tuberculosis incidence in Karaganda region in the context of its districts was studied. Choice of mathematical model of epidemic spread. The optimization problem is solved with the help of stochastic method: genetic algorithm. Epidemic modeling in the information system. Building maps. Approbation of the information system model on the basis of officially available statistical data.
The article is devoted to the problem of using mathematical methods for forecasting the tuberculosis epidemic in Kazakhstan using the example of the Karaganda region. The introduction of the article reflects the problem of forecasting tuberculosis in Kazakhstan. The main part of the article reflects the results of the analysis of mathematical methods for forecasting and data processing technology, describes the mathematical analysis of epidemiological indicators made with the SPSS statistical program, describes the factors affecting the incidence among contact persons, and calculates the correlation coefficient. The article shows the importance of mathematical modeling and the importance of developing a specific mathematical model that describes the spread of infection among the population.
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