I In nt te er rn na at ti io on na al l s st tu ud dy y o of f a as st th hm ma a a an nd d a al ll le er rg gi ie es s i in n c ch hi il ld dh ho oo od d ( (I ISIts specific aims are: 1) to describe the prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinitis and eczema in children living in different centres, and to make comparisons within and between countries; 2) to obtain baseline measures for assessment of future trends in the prevalence and severity of these diseases; and 3) to provide a framework for further aetiological research into genetic, lifestyle, environmental, and medical care factors affecting these diseases.The ISAAC design comprises three phases. Phase 1 uses core questionnaires designed to assess the prevalence and severity of asthma and allergic disease in defined populations. Phase 2 will investigate possible aetiological factors, particularly those suggested by the findings of Phase 1. Phase 3 will be a repetition of Phase 1 to assess trends in prevalence.

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These results suggest substantial worldwide variations in the prevalence and labelling of symptoms of allergic rhinoconjunctivitis which require further study. These differences, if real, may offer important clues to environmental influences on allergy.

This ISAAC Phase Three synthesis provides summarised information on the main findings of the study, regional tables and figures related to the prevalence and severity of current symptoms of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the main regions of the world. The large number of surveyed children (≈1,200,000), the large number of centres (233) and countries (98) that participated in ISAAC Phase Three makes this study the most comprehensive survey of these diseases ever undertaken. Globally, the prevalence for current asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in the 13-14-year age group was 14.1%, 14.6% and 7.3%, respectively. In the 6-7-year age group the prevalence for current asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema was 11.7%, 8.5% and 7.9%, respectively. The study shows a wide variability in the prevalence and severity of asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema which occurs not just between regions and countries but between centres in the same country and centres in the same city. This study definitively establishes that the prevalence of those diseases can be very high in non-affluent centres with low socioeconomic conditions. The large variability also suggests a crucial role of local environment characteristics to determine the differences in prevalence between one place and another. Thus, ISAAC Phase Three has provided a large body of epidemiological information on asthma, rhinoconjunctivitis and eczema in childhood from contrasting environments which is expected to yield new clues about the aetiology of those conditions and reasons for their marked global variability.

Objectives To develop a predictive model for preeclampsia based on clinical risk factors for nulliparous women and to identify a subgroup at increased risk, in whom specialist referral might be indicated. Design Prospective multicentre cohort. Setting Five centres in Auckland, New Zealand; Adelaide, Australia; Manchester and London, United Kingdom; and Cork, Republic of Ireland. Participants 3572 "healthy" nulliparous women with a singleton pregnancy from a large international study; data on pregnancy outcome were available for 3529 (99%). Main outcome measure Pre-eclampsia defined as ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic blood pressure ≥90 mm Hg, or both, on at least two occasions four hours apart after 20 weeks' gestation but before the onset of labour, or postpartum, with either proteinuria or any multisystem complication. Preterm pre-eclampsia was defined as women with pre-eclampsia delivered before 37 +0 weeks' gestation. In the stepwise logistic regression the comparison group was women without pre-eclampsia. Results Of the 3529 women, 186 (5.3%) developed preeclampsia, including 47 (1.3%) with preterm preeclampsia. Clinical risk factors at 14-16 weeks' gestation were age, mean arterial blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), family history of pre-eclampsia, family history of coronary heart disease, maternal birth weight, and vaginal bleeding for at least five days. Factors associated with reduced risk were a previous single miscarriage with the same partner, taking at least 12 months to conceive, high intake of fruit, cigarette smoking, and alcohol use in the first trimester. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), under internal validation, was 0.71. Addition of uterine artery Doppler indices did not improve performance (internal validation AUC 0.71). A framework for specialist referral was developed based on a probability of pre-eclampsia generated by the model of at least 15% or an abnormal uterine artery Doppler waveform in a subset of women with single risk factors.Nine per cent of nulliparous women would be referred for a specialist opinion, of whom 21% would develop preeclampsia. The relative risk for developing pre-eclampsia and preterm pre-eclampsia in women referred to a specialist compared with standard care was 5.5 and 12.2, respectively. Conclusions The ability to predict pre-eclampsia in healthy nulliparous women using clinical phenotype is modest and requires external validation in other populations. If validated, it could provide a personalised clinical risk profile for nulliparous women to which biomarkers could be added. Trial registration ACTRN12607000551493.

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IMPORTANCE Cohort studies have reported increased incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among individuals with low vitamin D status. To date, randomized clinical trials of vitamin D supplementation have not found an effect, possibly because of using too low a dose of vitamin D. OBJECTIVE To examine whether monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation prevents CVD in the general population. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTSThe Vitamin D Assessment Study is a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that recruited participants mostly from family practices in Auckland, New Zealand, from April 5, 2011, through November 6, 2012, with follow-up until July 2015. Participants were community-resident adults aged 50 to 84 years. Of 47 905 adults invited from family practices and 163 from community groups, 5110 participants were randomized to receive vitamin D 3 (n = 2558) or placebo (n = 2552). Two participants retracted consent, and all others (n = 5108) were included in the primary analysis.INTERVENTIONS Oral vitamin D 3 in an initial dose of 200 000 IU, followed a month later by monthly doses of 100 000 IU, or placebo for a median of 3.3 years (range, 2.5-4.2 years). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURESThe primary outcome was the number of participants with incident CVD and death, including a prespecified subgroup analysis in participants with vitamin D deficiency (baseline deseasonalized 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels <20 ng/mL). Secondary outcomes were myocardial infarction, angina, heart failure, hypertension, arrhythmias, arteriosclerosis, stroke, and venous thrombosis. RESULTSOf the 5108 participants included in the analysis, the mean (SD) age was 65.9 (8.3) years, 2969 (58.1%) were male, and 4253 (83.3%) were of European or other ethnicity, with the remainder being Polynesian or South Asian. Mean (SD) baseline deseasonalized 25(OH)D concentration was 26.5 (9.0) ng/mL, with 1270 participants (24.9%) being vitamin D deficient. In a random sample of 438 participants, the mean follow-up 25(OH)D level was greater than 20 ng/mL higher in the vitamin D group than in the placebo group. The primary outcome of CVD occurred in 303 participants (11.8%) in the vitamin D group and 293 participants (11.5%) in the placebo group, yielding an adjusted hazard ratio of 1.02 (95% CI, 0.87-1.20). Similar results were seen for participants with baseline vitamin D deficiency and for secondary outcomes.CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Monthly high-dose vitamin D supplementation does not prevent CVD. This result does not support the use of monthly vitamin D supplementation for this purpose. The effects of daily or weekly dosing require further study.

In Phase III of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) time trends in the prevalence of rhinoconjunctivitis symptoms were analysed. Cross-sectional questionnaire surveys with identical protocols and questionnaires were completed a mean of 7 yr apart in two age groups comprising 498,083 children. In the 13- to 14-yr age group 106 centres in 56 countries participated, and in the 6- to 7-yr age group 66 centres in 37 countries participated. A slight worldwide increase in rhinoconjunctivitis prevalence was observed, but the variations were large among the centres and there was no consistent regional pattern. Prevalence increases in the older children exceeding 1% per year were recorded in 13 centres, including 3 of 9 centres in Africa, 2 of 15 in Asia-Pacific, 1 of 8 in India, 3 of 15 in Latin America, 3 of 9 in Eastern Europe and 1 of 34 in Western and Northern Europe. Decreasing rhinoconjunctivititis prevalence of similar magnitude was only seen in four centres. The changes were less pronounced in the 6- to 7-yr-old children and only in one centre did any change exceed 1% per year. The decrease in highest prevalence rates in ISAAC Phase I suggests that the prevalence has peaked in those regions. An increase was recorded in several centres, mostly in low and mid-income countries. The increases were more pronounced in the older age group, suggesting that environmental influences on the development of allergy may not be limited to early childhood.