More specific pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy reduces the risk of early transition to psychosis in young people at ultra-high risk, although their relative contributions could not be determined. This represents at least delay in onset (prevalence reduction), and possibly some reduction in incidence.

Attachment is an important construct contributing to understanding and development of interventions promoting recovery following first-episode psychosis.

MethodsWe measured basal and peak acid outputs, food-stimulated acid secretion, and basal and food-stimulated serum gastrin concentrations in a large group of duodenal ulcer patients and normal subjects. Basal and peak acid outputs were significantly higher in ulcer patients. In contrast, acid secretion was similar in the groups when food was infused into the stomach and when sham feeding was combined with meal infusion to simulate normal eating. Meal-stimulated acid secretion, expressed as a percentage of peak acid output to correct for differences in secretory capacity, was lower in ulcer patients (P < 0.002). Basal serum gastrin concentrations were higher in ulcer patients, which may have contributed to higher basal acid output. However, increases in serum gastrin after food were similar in the groups. Duodenal ulcer patients, as a group, have increased basal and maximal acid secretion, but the amount of acid secreted and gastrin released after eating is normal.

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Background Early illness course correlates with long-term outcome in psychosis. Accurate prediction could allow more focused intervention. Earlier intervention corresponds to significantly better symptomatic and functional outcomes. Our study objective is to use routinely collected baseline demographic and clinical characteristics to predict employment, education or training (EET) status, and symptom remission in patients with first episode psychosis (FEP) at one-year. Methods and findings 83 FEP patients were recruited from National Health Service (NHS) Glasgow between 2011 and 2014 to a 24-month prospective cohort study with regular assessment of demographic and psychometric measures. An external independent cohort of 79 FEP patients were recruited from NHS Glasgow and Edinburgh during a 12-month study between 2006 and 2009. Elastic net regularised logistic regression models were built to predict binary EET status, period and point remission outcomes at one-year on 83 Glasgow patients (training dataset). Models were externally validated on an independent dataset of 79 patients from Glasgow and Edinburgh (validation dataset). Only baseline predictors shared across both cohorts were made available for model training and validation. After excluding participants with missing outcomes, models were built on the training dataset for EET status, period and point remission outcomes and externally validated on the validation dataset. Models predicted EET status, period and point remission with receiver operating curve (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) performances of 0.876 (95%CI: 0.864, 0.887), 0.630 (95%CI: 0.612, 0.647) and 0.652 (95%CI: 0.635, 0.670) respectively. Positive predictors of EET included baseline EET and living with spouse/children. Negative predictors included higher PANSS suspiciousness, hostility and delusions scores. Positive predictors for symptom remission included living with spouse/children, and affective symptoms on the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS). Negative predictors of remission included passive social withdrawal symptoms on PANSS. A key limitation of this study is the small sample size (n) relative to the number of predictors (p), whereby p approaches n. The use of elastic net regularised regression rather than ordinary least squares regression helped circumvent this difficulty. Further, we did not have information for biological and additional social variables, such as nicotine dependence, which observational studies have linked to outcomes in psychosis. Conclusions and relevance Using advanced statistical machine learning techniques, we provide the first externally validated evidence, in a temporally and geographically independent cohort, for the ability to predict one-year EET status and symptom remission in individual FEP patients.