The water level in a river defines the nature of flow and is fundamental to flood analysis. Extreme fluctuation in water levels in rivers, such as floods and droughts, are catastrophic in every manner; therefore, forecasting at an early stage would prevent possible disasters and relief efforts could be set up on time. This study aims to digitally model the water level in the Kabul River to prevent and alleviate the effects of any change in water level in this river downstream. This study used a machine learning tool known as the automatic autoregressive integrated moving average for statistical methodological analysis for forecasting the river flow. Based on the hydrological data collected from the water level of Kabul River in Swat, the water levels from 2011–2030 were forecasted, which were based on the lowest value of Akaike Information Criterion as 9.216. It was concluded that the water flow started to increase from the year 2011 till it reached its peak value in the year 2019–2020, and then the water level will maintain its maximum level to 250 cumecs and minimum level to 10 cumecs till 2030. The need for this research is justified as it could prove helpful in establishing guidelines for hydrological designers, the planning and management of water, hydropower engineering projects, as an indicator for weather prediction, and for the people who are greatly dependent on the Kabul River for their survival.
Channel estimation is an essential part of modern communication systems as it enhances the overall performance of the system. In recent past a variety of adaptive learning methods have been designed to enhance the robustness and convergence speed of the learning process. However, the need for an optimal technique is still there. Herein, for non-Gaussian noisy environment we propose a new class of stochastic gradient algorithm for channel identification. The proposed q-least mean fourth (q-LMF) is an extension of least mean fourth (LMF) algorithm and it is based on the q-calculus which is also known as Jackson derivative. The proposed algorithm utilizes a novel concept of error-correlation energy and normalization of signal to ensure high convergence rate, better stability and low steady-state error. Contrary to the conventional LMF, the proposed method has more freedom for large step-sizes. Extensive experiments show significant gain in the performance of the proposed q-LMF algorithm in comparison to the contemporary techniques.
Due to the dynamic nature, chaotic time series are difficult predict. In conventional signal processing approaches signals are treated either in time or in space domain only. Spatio-temporal analysis of signal provides more advantages over conventional uni-dimensional approaches by harnessing the information from both the temporal and spatial domains. Herein, we propose an spatio-temporal extension of RBF neural networks for the prediction of chaotic time series. The proposed algorithm utilizes the concept of time-space orthogonality and separately deals with the temporal dynamics and spatial nonlinearity(complexity) of the chaotic series. The proposed RBF architecture is explored for the prediction of Mackey-Glass time series and results are compared with the standard RBF. The spatio-temporal RBF is shown to out perform the standard RBFNN by achieving significantly reduced estimation error.
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