Data with excess zeros are frequently found in practice, and the recommended analysis is to use models that adequately address the counting of zero observations. In this study, the Zero Inflated Beta Regression Model (BeZI) was used on experimental data to describe the mean incidence of leaf citrus canker in orange groves under the influence of genotype and rootstocks of origin. Based on the model, it was possible to quantify the odds that a null observation to mean incidence comes from a particular plant according to genotype and rootstock, and estimate its expected value according to this combination. Laranja Caipira rootstock proved to be the most resistant to leaf citrus canker as well as Limão Cravo proved to be the most fragile. The Ipiguá IAC, Arapongas, EEL and Olímpia genotypes have statistically equivalent chances.
ABSTRACT. Citrus canker, caused by the bacterium Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri, is one of the most important diseases of citrus. The use of resistant genotypes plays an important role in the management and control of the disease and is the most environmentally sustainable approach to disease control. Citrus canker incidence was recorded in an experiment on nine genotypes of the sweet orange variety 'Pera' grafted on four rootstocks. The experiment was started in 2010 and the incidence of citrus canker on the leaves was recorded on a quarterly basis. The incidence data from the experiment were analyzed using a zero-inflated Beta regression model (RBIZ), which is the appropriate method to describe data with large numbers of zeros. Based on the residual analysis, the data fit the model well. The discrete component of the explanatory variable, rootstock, was not significant as a factor affecting the onset of disease, in contrast with the continuous component, genotype, which was significant in explaining the incidence of citrus canker.Keywords: zero-inflated Beta distribution, mixture models, inflated Beta regression model, modeling proportions.Modelagem da incidência de cancro cítrico em folhas de laranja doce variedade Pera RESUMO. O cancro cítrico, causado pela bactéria Xanthomonas citri subsp. citri é uma das doenças mais importantes da citricultura. A utilização de genótipos resistentes à doença assume um papel importante no manejo e controle do patógeno, sendo essa uma medida viável ao produtor e sustentável ao ambiente. O conjunto de dados utilizado neste trabalho consistiu das observações obtidas de um experimento em que foram empregados como material vegetal, nove genótipos de Laranja doce, variedade Pera enxertado em quatro diferentes porta-enxertos. Este experimento teve inicio em 2010 e foram realizadas avaliações trimestrais para determinar a incidência de cancro nas folhas das plantas. Para a análise dos observações resultantes desse experimento foi utilizado a regressão Beta inflacionada de zero (RBIZ), que é a metodologia adequada para descrever proporções com grandes quantidades de zeros. A partir da análise residual, pode-se perceber que os dados se apresentaram de maneira homogênea indicando um bom ajuste do modelo. Para o componente discreto a variável explicativa, porta enxerto, foi significativa para o não aparecimento da doença, em contraste com o componente contínuo, em que a variável genótipo mostrouse significativa para explicar a incidência de cancro cítrico.Palavras-chave: distribuição Beta inflacionada no ponto zero, modelo de mistura, modelo de regressão Beta inflacionado, modelagem de proporções.
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