SummaryThe evolutionary potential of long-lived species, such as forest trees, is fundamental for their local persistence under climate change (CC). Genome-environment association (GEA) analyses reveal if species in heterogeneous environments at the regional scale are under differential selection resulting in populations with potential preadaptation to CC within this area.In 79 natural Fagus sylvatica populations, neutral genetic patterns were characterized using 12 simple sequence repeat (SSR) markers, and genomic variation (144 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) out of 52 candidate genes) was related to 87 environmental predictors in the latent factor mixed model, logistic regressions and isolation by distance/environmental (IBD/IBE) tests.SSR diversity revealed relatedness at up to 150 m intertree distance but an absence of large-scale spatial genetic structure and IBE. In the GEA analyses, 16 SNPs in 10 genes responded to one or several environmental predictors and IBE, corrected for IBD, was confirmed. The GEA often reflected the proposed gene functions, including indications for adaptation to water availability and temperature.Genomic divergence and the lack of large-scale neutral genetic patterns suggest that gene flow allows the spread of advantageous alleles in adaptive genes. Thereby, adaptation processes are likely to take place in species occurring in heterogeneous environments, which might reduce their regional extinction risk under CC.

Abstract. Understanding the genecology of forest trees is critical for gene conservation, for predicting the effects of climate change and climate change adaptation, and for successful reforestation. Although common genecological patterns have emerged, species-specific details are also important. Which species are most vulnerable to climate change? Which are the most important adaptive traits and environmental drivers of natural selection? Even though species have been classified as adaptive specialists vs. adaptive generalists, large-scale studies comparing different species in the same experiment are rare. We studied the genecology of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba), two co-occurring but ecologically distinct European conifers in Central Europe. For each species, we collected seed from more than 90 populations across Switzerland, established a seedling common-garden test, and developed genecological models that associate population variation in seedling growth and phenology to climate, soil properties, and site water balance. Population differentiation and associations between seedling traits and environmental variables were much stronger for Norway spruce than for silver fir, and stronger for seedling height growth than for bud phenology. In Norway spruce, height growth and second flushing were strongly associated with temperature and elevation, with seedlings from the lowlands being taller and more prone to second flush than seedlings from the Alps. In silver fir, height growth was more weakly associated with temperature and elevation, but also associated with water availability. Soil characteristics explained little population variation in both species. We conclude that Norway spruce has become an adaptive specialist because trade-offs between rapid juvenile growth and frost avoidance have subjected it to strong diversifying natural selection based on temperature. In contrast, because silver fir has a more conservative growth habit, it has evolved to become an adaptive generalist. This study demonstrates that co-occurring tree species can develop very different adaptive strategies under identical environmental conditions, and suggests that Norway spruce might be more vulnerable to future maladaptation due to rapid climate change than silver fir.

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Tree populations usually show adaptations to their local environments as a result of natural selection. As climates change, populations can become locally maladapted and decline in fitness. Evaluating the expected degree of genetic maladaptation due to climate change will allow forest managers to assess forest vulnerability, and develop strategies to preserve forest health and productivity. We studied potential genetic maladaptation to future climates in three major European tree species, Norway spruce (Picea abies), silver fir (Abies alba), and European beech (Fagus sylvatica). A common garden experiment was conducted to evaluate the quantitative genetic variation in growth and phenology of seedlings from 77 to 92 native populations of each species from across Switzerland. We used multivariate genecological models to associate population variation with past seed source climates, and to estimate relative risk of maladaptation to current and future climates based on key phenotypic traits and three regional climate projections within the A1B scenario. Current risks from climate change were similar to average risks from current seed transfer practices. For all three climate models, future risks increased in spruce and beech until the end of the century, but remained low in fir. Largest average risks associated with climate projections for the period 2061-2090 were found for spruce seedling height (0.64), and for beech bud break and leaf senescence (0.52 and 0.46). Future risks for spruce were high across Switzerland. However, areas of high risk were also found in drought-prone regions for beech and in the southern Alps for fir. Genetic maladaptation to future climates is likely to become a problem for spruce and beech by the end of this century, but probably not for fir. Consequently, forest management strategies should be adjusted in the study area for spruce and beech to maintain productive and healthy forests in the future.

The ability to improve fitness via adaptive evolution may be affected by environmental change. We tested this hypothesis in an in vitro experiment with the plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani Anastomosis Group 3 (AG-3), assessing genetic and environmental variances under two temperatures (optimal and higher than optimal) and three fungicide concentrations (no fungicide, low and high concentration of a copper-based fungicide). We measured the mean daily growth rate, the coefficient of variation for genotypic (I (G)) and environmental variance (I (E)) in growth, and broad-sense heritability in growth. Both higher temperature and increased fungicide concentration caused a decline in growth, confirming their potential as stressors for the pathogen. All types of standardized variances in growth-I (G), phenotypic variance, and I (E) as a trend-increased with elevated stress. However, heritability was not significantly higher under enhanced stress because the increase in I (G) was counterbalanced by somewhat increased I (E). The results illustrate that predictions for adaptation under environmental stress may depend on the type of short-term evolvability measure. Because mycelial growth is linked to fitness, I (G) reflects short-term evolvability better than heritability, and it indicates that the evolutionary potential of R. solani is positively affected by stress.