Ensuring fiscal sustainability in the Member States of the European Union has become an extremely important goal in the current economic context. The formulation of appropriate policies can lead to fiscal consolidation, and the manifestation of a fiscal shock with direct implications on national budgets and can be mitigated by a rational approach. The aim of this paper is to examine issues related to ensuring fiscal sustainability and to identify the necessary fiscal policy instruments in this regard. Using a data set for EU member states for the period 2000–2019, we researched fiscal policy objectives for economic development and the volume of public and private investment. The error correction model (ECM) was used as a derivative of the autoregressive model with distributed lags (ARDL) to assess the short-term variation of Gross Domestic Product under the influence of seven fiscal indicators. The study highlights the aspects of fiscal policies at EU level as well as the correlation between economic development and the fiscal behaviour of the authorities. We contribute to the existing literature by providing empirical evidence on the existence of a direct relationship between economic growth and the volume of private investment.
Economic growth can be seen as an effect of both fiscal policies and different legislative norms applied at national and macroeconomic level. Investments are a determining factor in the evolution of socio-economic life, influencing also the employment rate. This paper aims to identify the influence of investments on economic growth and employment using the vector autoregressive model (VAR). Based on the quarterly data from Romania, between the first quarter of 2000 and the second quarter of 2018, the Granger causality test and the impulse - response function was applied to identify the effect of the investments on the sustainable development of the Romanian economy. The results revealed that investments in Romania influence the economic growth and, implicitly, the employment. In terms of impulse – response function, a negative relationship between investment and employment was identified, which may be due to the fact that the need for human resources is no longer a priority in some sectors of activity due to technology.
In any competitive economy, the risk of bankruptcy is pervasive. The research aims to contribute in improving the predictive power of bankruptcy and insolvency risk among companies by introducing new methods of processing and validation. This paper investigates the extensive application of the Z score model for predicting the economic-financial stability of Romanian companies in the manufacturing and extractive industries. A list of 37 financial indicators determined on the basis of the balance sheet data of 80 companies for the period 2015–2018 was used. Stepwise Least Squares Estimation through the Forward method allowed the identification of the most relevant ones. Canonical discriminant analysis and sensitivity analyzes were introduced to test the predictive power of the model. The new model identified allows both the prediction of bankruptcy and insolvency risk. This study contributes to the literature by testing variables in relation to financial difficulties and by including other classification information. The robustness of the determined canonical discriminant function was verified by testing the model on two other samples.
Fiscal policy influences economic conditions through public spending and taxes, generating positive or negative impulses, both on short and long term. The present research focuses on analysing the effects of the discretionary changes in the fiscal policy in seven post-communist countries of the European Union during the period 2000–2018. The autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) has been applied in order to obtain the convergence rates to equilibrium with a clear analysis of the periods needed to achieve the long-run fiscal sustainability. Also, the error correction vector model (VECM), which is based on the autoregressive vector (VAR) model, has been used in the second part of the analysis focusing on the Cholesky factorization of innovations. Impulse-response functions aiming to estimate the response of government expenditures to the shock produced by three macroeconomic variables have been identified.
At both macroeconomic and national level, in recent decades, European tax policies have shown a particular interest in addressing the spectrum of risk issues in terms of maturing the business environment and the lack of sustainable development of the economy. In Romania there has been a significant increase in public debt, which is increasingly threatening fiscal sustainability. This is due to fiscal rules that restrict the applicability of fiscal policy to balancing the national economy. However, fiscal policy did not act in the direction of economic recovery during the crisis that started in the last quarter of 2008, which had a negative impact on the Romanian business environment. Objectively, fiscal policy should manifest itself as a general framework of the economy on the basis of which to develop fiscal rules that act in the direction of sustainable development of the business environment and implicitly, of socio-economic life. The research carried out referred to identify how fiscal rules in Romania restrict the application of fiscal policy as well as whether there is an explicit concordance between them. The research methodology aimed to use the ARDL model to apply the Granger causality test, using quarterly data for a set of four indicators, being identified that Romanian fiscal rules restrict fiscal policy. The achieved results highlighted the fact that fiscal rules restrict fiscal policy, being identified a long-run relationship between the analyzed variables and implicitly, a state of instability of the fiscal system in Romania. Keywords: fiscal policy, autoregressive distributed-lagged model, Granger causality test.
Tax evasion is a pernicious phenomenon, very widespread in the world, which is closely linked to the system of taxes and fees. This is considered to be a response to the excessive fiscal pressure exerted on taxpayers. Bypassing the law is also closely related to the phenomenon of corruption and its removal is a difficult target, under the existing conditions. The main purpose of this paper is to study the influence of corruption and fiscal pressure on the phenomenon of tax evasion, materialized by the shadow economy indicator. The analysis is carried out over a period of 18 years, namely 1999-2016, for six countries of South-Eastern Europe, member states of the European Union, divided into two categories, namely developed and emerging states. The research methodology requires a comparative analysis of existing situations in the research countries. Also, we will use the econometric analysis, with the help of statistical package for social sciences, of the relationship between the underground economy and corruption, as well as the correlation between tax burden exerted by the budget revenues and tax evasion. Being difficult to quantify, the level of shadow economy has been taken from Friedrich Schneider’s studies, through which he measured underground economy in 157 countries over the period 1999-2013; but also in 36 states, between 2003 and 2016. The level of corruption is measured using the corruption perception index at the international level and the tax burden is calculated as the ratio between tax revenue and gross domestic product. Keywords: tax burden, shadow economy, corruption, South-East Europe.
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