Climate change is driving a pervasive global redistribution of the planet's species. Species redistribution poses new questions for the study of ecosystems, conservation science and human societies that require a coordinated and integrated approach. Here we review recent progress, key gaps and strategic directions in this nascent research area, emphasising emerging themes in species redistribution biology, the importance of understanding underlying drivers and the need to anticipate novel outcomes of changes in species ranges. We highlight that species redistribution has manifest implications across multiple temporal and spatial scales and from genes to ecosystems. Understanding range shifts from ecological, physiological, genetic and biogeographical perspectives is essential for informing changing paradigms in conservation science and for designing conservation strategies that incorporate changing population connectivity and advance adaptation to climate change. Species redistributions present challenges for human well-being, environmental management and sustainable development. By synthesising recent approaches, theories and tools, our review establishes an interdisciplinary foundation for the development of future research on species redistribution. Specifically, we demonstrate how ecological, conservation and social research on species redistribution can best be achieved by working across disciplinary boundaries to develop and implement solutions to climate change challenges. Future studies should therefore integrate existing and complementary scientific frameworks while incorporating social science and human-centred approaches. Finally, we emphasise that the best science will not be useful unless more scientists engage with managers, policy makers and the public to develop responsible and socially acceptable options for the global challenges arising from species redistributions.

We evaluate methods to calculate the economic value of protected areas derived from the improved mental health of visitors. A conservative global estimate using quality-adjusted life years, a standard measure in health economics, is US$6 trillion p.a. This is an order of magnitude greater than the global value of protected area tourism, and two to three orders greater than global aggregate protected area management agency budgets. Future research should: refine this estimate using more precise methods; consider interactions between health and conservation policies and budgets at national scales; and examine links between personalities and protected area experiences at individual scale. C onservation is key to sustainability 1-3 , but biodiversity continues to decrease worldwide 4-6. Protected areas remain the core of global conservation strategies 7,8 , but are under increasing pressure 9-11 from political and economic factors 12,13 as well as climate change 14. Conservation relies on political advocacy, influenced by economic arguments 2,15 , based on ecosystem services 16 or tourism 17. Nature exposure improves human mental health and wellbeing 18-21. Poor mental health imposes major costs on human economies 22-24. Therefore, parks have an additional economic value through the mental health of visitors 25. We refer to this as a health services value. This may be considered as a component of ecosystem services value 26. Here we consider how to calculate health services value. Research on nature exposure and mental health falls into four main categories 20 : spatial correlations between nature access and mental health 27-29 ; joint patterns across populations 30,31 ; experimental tests linking nature exposure to specific psychological parameters 18-22,32-34 ; and qualitative analyses examining the psychological processes underlying these links 35,36. Healthrelated benefits include improved attention 32 , cognition 33 , sleep 37 , and stress recovery 38 , and apply across demographic and socioeconomic population sectors 18,19,25. Research on economic costs of poor mental health recognises four main categories: treatments 39,40 , both consultations and pharmaceuticals; caregivers, both paid and unpaid (e.g. family members); lost workplace productivity, through absenteeism 39 or poor performance (presenteeism) 41 ; and antisocial behaviour 42-44 , both public (e.g. vandalism) and private (e.g. domestic violence). Human economies have underinvested severely in nature conservation, despite the high value of ecosystem services 16 , because these services have been provided free of charge. The same applies for health services, but we suggest that there may be one key difference. In agrarian and manufacturing economies, the relationship between individual mental health and society-scale economic performance is a step function: irrelevant, until it is severe enough to generate crime or workplace absenteeism. In professional and service economies, however, the relationship is gradual: poor mental health decreases contribut...

Robust policy decisions regarding the protection and management of terrestrial mammals require knowledge of where species are and in what numbers. The last comprehensive review, presenting absolute estimates at a national scale, was published nearly 20 years ago and was largely based on expert opinion. We investigated and propose a systematic data driven approach combing publically available occurrence data with published density estimates to predict species distribution maps and derive total abundance figures for all terrestrial mammals inhabiting Britain. Our findings suggest that the methodology has potential; generally producing plausible predictions consistent with existing information. However, inconsistencies in the availability and recording of data impact the certainty of this output limiting its current application for policy. Restrictions on access and use of occurrence data at a local level produces “data deserts” for which models cannot compensate. This leads to gaps in spatial distribution of species and consequently underestimates abundance. For many species the limited number of geo-referenced densities hampered the extrapolation from habitat suitability to absolute abundance. Even for well-studied species, further density estimates are required. Many density estimates used were pre-1995 and therefore the derived abundance should not be considered a current estimate. To maximise a systematic approach in the future we make the following recommendations: To mitigate the attitudes of a minority of local data providers occurrence records must be submitted to national surveys such as the Mammal Society’s Mammal Tracker.Studies are required to estimate density for common species and in areas of low or no abundance.To ensure such studies can be collated and used efficiently we propose a standardised approach reporting density estimates based on the 1km resolution British National Grid, or habitat representative of the 1km square, with digital maps to accompany publications.

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km−2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

Climate change is causing spatio-temporal shifts in environmental conditions, and species that are not able to track suitable environments may face increased risks of extinction. Assisted colonization, a form of translocation, has been proposed as a tool to help species survive the impacts of climate change. Unfortunately, translocations generally have a low success rate, a well-documented fact that is not considered in most of the recent literature on assisted colonization. One of the main impediments to translocation success is inadequate planning. In this review, we argue that by using well-known analytical tools such as species distribution models and population dynamics modelling we can maximize the success of assisted colonization. In particular, we present guidelines as to which questions should be investigated when planning assisted colonization and suggest methods for answering them. Finally, we also highlight further implementation and research issues that remain to be solved for assisted colonizations to be efficient climate change adaptation tools.

Droughts can have a severe impact on the dynamics of animal populations, particularly in semi-arid and arid environments where herbivore populations are strongly limited by resource availability. Increased drought intensity under projected climate change scenarios can be expected to reduce the viability of such populations, yet this impact has seldom been quantified. In this study, we aim to fill this gap and assess how the predicted worsening of droughts over the 21st century is likely to impact the population dynamics of twelve ungulate species occurring in arid and semi-arid habitats. Our results provide support to the hypotheses that more sedentary, grazing and mixed feeding species will be put at high risk from future increases in drought intensity, suggesting that management intervention under these conditions should be targeted towards species possessing these traits. Predictive population models for all sedentary, grazing or mixed feeding species in our study show that their probability of extinction dramatically increases under future emissions scenarios, and that this extinction risk is greater for smaller populations than larger ones. Our study highlights the importance of quantifying the current and future impacts of increasing extreme natural events on populations and species in order to improve our ability to mitigate predicted biodiversity loss under climate change.

Global areal protection targets have driven a dramatic expansion of the marine protected area (MPA) estate. We analyzed how cost-effective global MPA expansion has been since the inception of the first global target (set in 1982) in achieving ecoregional representation. By comparing spatial patterns of MPA expansion against optimal MPA estates using the same expansion rates, we show the current MPA estate is both expensive and ineffective. Although the number of ecoregions represented tripled and 12.7% of national waters was protected, 61% of ecoregions and 81% of countries are not 10% protected. Only 10.3% of the national waters of the world would be sufficient to protect 10% of each ecoregion if MPA growth since 1982 strategically targeted underrepresented ecoregions. Unfortunately 16.3% of national waters are required for the same representative target if systematic protection started in 2016 (an extra 3.6% on top of 12.7%). To avoid the high costs of adjusting increasingly biased MPA systems, future efforts should embrace target-driven systematic conservation planning. K E Y W O R D S

Protected Areas (PAs) are a central part of biodiversity conservation strategies around the world. Today, PAs cover c15% of the Earth’s land mass and c3% of the global oceans. These numbers are expected to grow rapidly to meet the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Biodiversity target 11, which aims to see 17% and 10% of terrestrial and marine biomes protected, respectively, by 2020. This target also requires countries to ensure that PAs protect an “ecologically representative” sample of their biodiversity. At present, there is no clear definition of what desirable ecological representation looks like, or guidelines of how to standardize its assessment as the PA estate grows. We propose a systematic approach to measure ecological representation in PA networks using the Protection Equality (PE) metric, which measures how equally ecological features, such as habitats, within a country’s borders are protected. We present an R package and two Protection Equality (PE) measures; proportional to area PE, and fixed area PE, which measure the representativeness of a country’s PA network. We illustrate the PE metrics with two case studies: coral reef protection across countries and ecoregions in the Coral Triangle, and representation of ecoregions of six of the largest countries in the world. Our results provide repeatable transparency to the issue of representation in PA networks and provide a starting point for further discussion, evaluation and testing of representation metrics. They also highlight clear shortcomings in current PA networks, particularly where they are biased towards certain assemblage types or habitats. Our proposed metrics should be used to report on measuring progress towards the representation component of Aichi Target 11. The PE metrics can be used to measure the representation of any kind of ecological feature including: species, ecoregions, processes or habitats.