How does the South African government react to changes in its debt position? In investigating this question, this paper estimates fiscal reaction functions using various methods (ordinary least squares, threshold autoregressive, state‐space modelling and vector error‐correction model). This paper finds that since 1946, the South African government has run sustainable fiscal policy by reducing the primary deficit or increasing the surplus in response to rising debt. Looking ahead, this paper considers the use of fiscal reaction functions to forecast the debt/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio and gauging the likelihood of achieving policy goals with the aid of probabilistic simulations and fan charts.

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Inadequate infrastructure has been widely viewed as a principal barrier to growth and development in Latin America and the Caribbean. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of infrastructure in the region and highlights key areas in which infrastructure networks can be enhanced. The public and private sectors play complementary roles in improving the infrastructure network. Therefore, it is critical to strengthen public investment management processes as well as the regulatory framework, including to ensure and appropriate mix of financing and funding for projects and to address environmental concerns.

Adequate infrastructure is a critical input for growth and development in all countries, and especially in emerging and developing countries. This article 1 1 The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management. examines the factors that have underpinned the stock of infrastructure across countries, including in Latin America and the Caribbean. We find that public finance and private sector participation both contribute to improving the stock of infrastructure. The impact of public finance depends on how capital investment is financed to meet the government’s budget constraint. Total domestic finance of infrastructure depends, in turn, on domestic financial depth and links to the rest of the world through trade and foreign investment.

IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.