Background: Ending AIDS as a public health threat by 2030 is a significant challenge, as new HIV infections among adolescents and young people have not decreased fast enough to curb the epidemic. The combination of slow HIV response and increasing youth populations 15–24 could affect progress towards 2030 goals.Objective: This analysis aimed to describe global and regional trends from 2010–2050 in the HIV epidemic among adolescents and young people by accounting for demographic projections and recent trends in HIV interventions.Methods: 148 national HIV estimates files were used to project the HIV epidemic to 2050. Numbers of people living with HIV and new HIV infections were projected by sex and five-year age group. Along with demographic data, projections were based on three key assumptions: future trends in HIV incidence, antiretroviral treatment coverage, and coverage of antiretrovirals for prevention of mother-to-child transmission. Results represent nine geographic regions.Results: While the number of adolescents and young people is projected to increase by 10% from 2010–2050, those living with HIV is projected to decrease by 61%. In Eastern and Southern Africa, which hosts the largest HIV epidemic, new HIV infections among adolescents and young people are projected to decline by 84% from 2010–2050. In West and Central Africa, which hosts the second-largest HIV epidemic, new infections are projected to decline by 35%.Conclusions: While adolescents and young people living with HIV are living longer and ageing into adulthood, if current trends continue, the number of new HIV infections is not projected to decline fast enough to end AIDS as a health threat in this age group. Regional variations suggest that while progress in Eastern and Southern Africa could reduce the size of the epidemic by 2050, other regions exhibit slower rates of decline among adolescents and young people.

Background Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems play a key role in upholding human rights and generating data for health and good governance. They also can help monitor progress in achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. Although many countries have made substantial progress in strengthening their CRVS systems, most lowand middle-income countries still have underdeveloped systems. The objective of this systematic review is to identify national policies that can help countries strengthen their systems. Methods and findings The ABI/INFORM, Embase, JSTOR, PubMed, and WHO Index Medicus databases were systematically searched for policies to improve birth and/or death registration on 24 January 2017. Global stakeholders were also contacted for relevant grey literature. For the purposes of this review, policies were categorised as supply, demand, incentive, penalty, or combination (i.e., at least two of the preceding policy approaches). Quantitative results on changes in vital event registration rates were presented for individual comparative articles. Qualitative systematic review methodology, including meta-ethnography, was used for qualitative syntheses on operational considerations encompassing acceptability to recipients and staff, human resource requirements, information technology or infrastructure requirements, costs to the health system, unintended effects, facilitators, and barriers. This study is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42018085768. Thirty-five articles documenting experience in implementing policies to improve birth and/or death registration were identified. Although

ObjectivesAchieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require data-driven public health action. There are limited publications on national health information systems that continuously generate health data. Given the need to develop these systems, we summarised their current status in low-income and middle-income countries.SettingThe survey team jointly developed a questionnaire covering policy, planning, legislation and organisation of case reporting, patient monitoring and civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems. From January until May 2017, we administered the questionnaire to key informants in 51 Centers for Disease Control country offices. Countries were aggregated for descriptive analyses in Microsoft Excel.ResultsKey informants in 15 countries responded to the questionnaire. Several key informants did not answer all questions, leading to different denominators across questions. The Ministry of Health coordinated case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 93% (14/15), 93% (13/14) and 53% (8/15) of responding countries, respectively. Domestic financing supported case reporting, patient monitoring and CRVS systems in 86% (12/14), 75% (9/12) and 92% (11/12) of responding countries, respectively. The most common uses for system-generated data were to guide programme response in 100% (15/15) of countries for case reporting, to calculate service coverage in 92% (12/13) of countries for patient monitoring and to estimate the national burden of disease in 83% (10/12) of countries for CRVS. Systems with an electronic component were being used for case reporting, patient monitoring, birth registration and death registration in 87% (13/15), 92% (11/12), 77% (10/13) and 64% (7/11) of responding countries, respectively.ConclusionsMost responding countries have a solid foundation for policy, planning, legislation and organisation of health information systems. Further evaluation is needed to assess the quality of data generated from systems. Periodic evaluations may be useful in monitoring progress in strengthening and harmonising these systems over time.

IntroductionClinical trials in sub-Saharan Africa support that HIV self-testing (HIVST) can increase testing rates in difficult-to-reach populations. However, trials mostly evaluate oral fluid HIVST only. We describe preferences for oral fluid vs. blood-based HIVST to elucidate prior trial results and inform testing programs.MethodsParticipants were recruited from a HIVST randomized controlled trial in Nakuru County, Kenya, which aimed to test the effect of choice between oral HIVST and facility-based testing compared to standard-of-care on HIV testing among truck drivers. We conducted in-depth interviews (IDIs) with purposively sampled trial participants who declined HIV testing at baseline or who were offered access to oral fluid HIVST and chose not to pick up the kit during follow-up. IDIs were conducted with all consenting participants. We first describe IDI participants compared to the other study participants, assessing the statistical significance of differences in characteristics between the two samples and then describe preferences, beliefs, and attitudes about HIVST biospecimen type expressed in the IDIs.ResultsThe final sample consisted of 16 men who refused HIV testing at baseline and 8 men who did not test during follow-up. All IDI participants had tested prior to study participation; mean number of years since last HIV test was 1.55, vs. 0.98 among non-IDI participants (p = 0.093). Of the 14 participants who answered the question about preferred type of HIVST, nine preferred blood-based HIVST, and five, oral HIVST. Preference varied by study arm with four of five participants who answered this question in the Choice arm and five of nine in the SOC arm preferring blood-based HIVST. Six key themes characterized truckers' views about test type: (1) Rapidity of return of test results. (2) Pain and fear associated with finger prick. (3) Ease of use. (4) Trust in test results; (5) fear of infection by contamination; and (6) Concerns about HIVST kit storage and disposal.ConclusionWe found no general pattern in the themes for preference for oral or blood-based HIVST, but if blood-based HIVST had been offered, some participants in the Choice arm might have chosen to self-test. Offering choices for HIVST could increase testing uptake.

Background: Longitudinal population-based cohorts are critical in HIV surveillance programs in Africa but continued rapid population growth poses serious challenges to maintaining cohort representativeness with limited resources. In one such cohort, we evaluated if systematic exclusion of some residents due to growing population size biases key HIV metrics like prevalence and viremia. Methods: Data were obtained from the Rakai Community Cohort study (RCCS) in south central Uganda, an open population-based cohort which began excluding some residents of newly constructed household structures within its surveillance boundaries in 2008. We evaluated the extent to which changing inclusion criteria may bias recent population HIV seroprevalence and viremia estimates from the RCCS using ensemble machine learning models fit to 2019-2020 RCCS census and survey data. Results: Of the 24,729 census-eligible residents, 2,920 (12%) were living within new household structures and excluded. Predicted seroprevalence for excluded residents was 11.4% (95% Confidence Interval: 10.2, 12.3) compared to 11.8% in the observed sample. However, predicted seroprevalence for younger excluded residents 15-24 years was 5.1% (3.6, 6.1), which was significantly higher than that in the observed sample for the same age group (2.6%). Over all ages, predicted prevalence of viremia in excluded residents (2.8% [2.2, 3.3]) was higher than that in the observed sample (1.7%), resulting in a somewhat higher overall population viremia estimate of 1.9% [1.8, 2.0]). Conclusions: Exclusion of residents in new households may modestly bias HIV viremia estimates and some age-specific seroprevalence estimates in the RCCS. Overall HIV seroprevalence estimates were not significantly affected.

Population sizes of adolescent (15- to 19-years) and young (20 to 24-years) key populations at risk for HIV transmission are essential for developing effective national HIV control strategies. We present new population size estimates of adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex from 184 countries in nine UNICEF regions using UNAIDS published population size estimations submitted by national governments to derive 15-24-year-old population proportions based on the size of equivalent adult general populations. Imputed sizes based on regional estimates were used for countries or regions where adult proportion estimates were unavailable. Proportions were apportioned to adolescents and young adults based on age at sexual debut, by adjusting for the cumulative percentage of the sexually active population at each age for sex. Among roughly 69.5 million men who have sex with men, 12 million are under the age of 24 years, of whom 3 million are adolescents. There are an estimated 1.4 million adolescent and 3.7 million young females who sell sex. Roughly four and a half million adolescent men who have sex with men and females who sell sex would benefit from early HIV interventions. These population size estimates suggest there are roughly 17 million adolescent and young men who have sex with men and females who sell sex who need HIV prevention services and social support. These data provide evidence for national and international programs to determine how many adolescent and young key populations need essential health services and are living with HIV and other infections. Age disaggregated population sizes inform epidemic models, which increasingly use age-sex structures and are often used to obtain and allocate resources and human capacity and to plan critical prevention, treatment, and infection control programs.

Background: Mobile women are at risk of HIV infection in sub-Saharan Africa, although we lack evidence for HIV risk among women in mobile partnerships, especially in the context of household food insecurity, a growing concern in the region.Setting: Women aged 15-59 years with a cohabitating male partner who participated in population-based HIV impact assessment surveys in Eswatini,

ObjectiveSince rapid population growth challenges longitudinal population-based HIV cohorts in Africa to maintain coverage of their target populations, this study evaluated whether the exclusion of some residents due to growing population size biases key HIV metrics like prevalence and population-level viremia.Design, setting and participantsData were obtained from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS) in south central Uganda, an open population-based cohort which began excluding some residents of newly constructed household structures within its surveillance boundaries in 2008. The study includes adults aged 15–49 years who were censused from 2019 to 2020.MeasuresWe fit ensemble machine learning models to RCCS census and survey data to predict HIV seroprevalence and viremia (prevalence of those with viral load >1000 copies/mL) in the excluded population and evaluated whether their inclusion would change overall estimates.ResultsOf the 24 729 census-eligible residents, 2920 (12%) residents were excluded from the RCCS because they were living in new households. The predicted seroprevalence for these excluded residents was 10.8% (95% CI: 9.6% to 11.8%)—somewhat lower than 11.7% (95% CI: 11.2% to 12.3%) in the observed sample. Predicted seroprevalence for younger excluded residents aged 15–24 years was 4.9% (95% CI: 3.6% to 6.1%)—significantly higher than that in the observed sample for the same age group (2.6% (95% CI: 2.2% to 3.1%)), while predicted seroprevalence for older excluded residents aged 25–49 years was 15.0% (95% CI: 13.3% to 16.4%)—significantly lower than their counterparts in the observed sample (17.2% (95% CI: 16.4% to 18.1%)). Over all ages, the predicted prevalence of viremia in excluded residents (3.7% (95% CI: 3.0% to 4.5%)) was significantly higher than that in the observed sample (1.7% (95% CI: 1.5% to 1.9%)), resulting in a higher overall population-level viremia estimate of 2.1% (95% CI: 1.8% to 2.4%).ConclusionsExclusion of residents in new households may modestly bias HIV viremia estimates and some age-specific seroprevalence estimates in the RCCS. Overall, HIV seroprevalence estimates were not significantly affected.