This article examines the behavior of the consumer price index in Ukraine for the period from January 2010 to September 2020. The characteristics of the initial time series, the analysis of autocorrelation functions made it possible to reveal the tendency of their development and the presence of annual seasonality. To model the behavior of the consumer price index and forecast for the next months, two types of models were used: the additive ARIMA*ARIMAS model, better known as the model of Box-Jenkins and the exponential smoothing model with the seasonality estimate of Holt-Winters. As a result of using the STATISTICA package, the most adequate models were built, reflecting the monthly dynamics of the consumer price index in Ukraine. The inflation forecast was carried out on the basis of the Holt-Winters model, which has a minimum error.
Based on the network paradigm of complexity in the work, a systematic analysis of the dynamics of the largest stock markets in the world and cryptocurrency market has been carried out. According to the algorithms of the visibility graph and recurrence plot, the daily values of stock and crypto indices are converted into a networks and multiplex networks, the spectral and topological properties of which are sensitive to the critical and crisis phenomena of the studied complex systems. This work is the first to investigate the network properties of the crypto index CCI30 and the multiplex network of key cryptocurrencies. It is shown that some of the spectral and topological characteristics can serve as measures of the complexity of the stock and crypto market, and their specific behaviour in the pre-crisis period is used as indicators- precursors of critical phenomena.
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