Modern Internet companies improve their services by means of data-driven decisions that are based on online controlled experiments (also known as A/B tests). To run more online controlled experiments and to get statistically significant results faster are the emerging needs for these companies. The main way to achieve these goals is to improve the sensitivity of A/B experiments. We propose a novel approach to improve the sensitivity of user engagement metrics (that are widely used in A/B tests) by utilizing prediction of the future behavior of an individual user. This problem of prediction of the exact value of a user engagement metric is also novel and is studied in our work. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our sensitivity improvement approach on several real online experiments run at Yandex. Especially, we show how it can be used to detect the treatment effect of an A/B test faster with the same level of statistical significance.
Nowadays, billions of people use the Web in connection with their daily needs. A significant part of these needs are constituted by search tasks that are usually addressed by search engines. Thus, daily search needs result in regular user engagement with a search engine. User engagement with web services was studied in various aspects, but there appears to be little work devoted to its regularity and periodicity. In this article, we study periodicity of user engagement with a popular search engine through applying spectrum analysis to temporal sequences of different engagement metrics. First, we found periodicity patterns of user engagement and revealed classes of users whose periodicity patterns do not change over a long period of time. In addition, we give an exhaustive analysis of the stability and quality of identified clusters. Second, we used the spectrum series as key metrics to evaluate search quality. We found that the novel periodicity metrics outperform the state-of-the-art quality metrics both in terms of significance level (
p
-value) and sensitivity to a large set of larges-scale A/B experiments conducted on real search engine users.
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