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An assessment of the nature and causes of drought in the southeastern United States is conducted as well as an assessment of model projections of anthropogenically forced hydroclimate change in this region. The study uses observations of precipitation, model simulations forced by historical SSTs from 1856 to 2007, tree-ring records of moisture availability over the last millennium, and climate change projections conducted for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. From the perspective of the historical record, the recent drought that began in winter 2005/06 was a typical event in terms of amplitude and duration. Observations and model simulations are used to show that dry winter half-years in the Southeast are weakly associated with La Niñ as in the tropical Pacific but that this link varies over time and was possibly of opposite sign from about 1922 to 1950. Summer-season precipitation variability in the Southeast appears governed by purely internal atmospheric variability. As such, model simulations forced by historical SSTs have very limited skill in reproducing the instrumental record of Southeast precipitation variability and actual predictive skill is also presumably low. Tree-ring records show that the twentieth century has been moist from the perspective of the last millennium and free of long and severe droughts that were abundant in previous centuries. The tree-ring records show a 21-yr-long uninterrupted drought in the mid-sixteenth century, a long period of dry conditions in the early to mid-nineteenth century, and that the Southeast was also affected by some of the medieval megadroughts centered in western North America. Climate model projections predict that in the near term, future precipitation in the Southeast will increase but that evaporation will also increase. The median of the projections predicts a modest reduction in the atmospheric supply of water vapor to the region; however, the multimodel ensemble exhibits considerable variation, with a quarter to a third of the models projecting an increase in precipitation minus evaporation. The recent drought, forced by reduced precipitation and with reduced evaporation, has no signature of model-projected anthropogenic climate change.

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Sediments cored along the southwestern Iberian margin during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program Expedition 339 provide constraints on Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) circulation patterns from the Pliocene epoch to the present day. After the Strait of Gibraltar opened (5.33 million years ago), a limited volume of MOW entered the Atlantic. Depositional hiatuses indicate erosion by bottom currents related to higher volumes of MOW circulating into the North Atlantic, beginning in the late Pliocene. The hiatuses coincide with regional tectonic events and changes in global thermohaline circulation (THC). This suggests that MOW influenced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), THC, and climatic shifts by contributing a component of warm, saline water to northern latitudes while in turn being influenced by plate tectonics.

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The Early Ottnangian Cooling (EOC), a distinct cold-spell in European climate at ~ 18 Ma preceding the Miocene Climate Optimum, is frequently reported in Paratethys records; however, the duration, magnitude, and underlying causes are poorly understood. A new palaeoclimatic data-set provides unexpected insights into this event.UK'37-based sea-surface temperatures > 24 °C between ~ 18.1 and 17.7 Myrs substantially exceed existing estimates, and indicate a significantly warmer European climate than previously assumed for this usually poorly recovered time interval. The EOC is expressed as an average drop of 2–3 °C in Paratethyan water temperatures between ~ 18.1 and 17.8 Myrs with two distinct cold snaps at ~ 17.86 Ma and ~ 17.81 Ma. The short duration of the EOC excludes Tethyan Seaway closure as its underlying cause, although the enhanced palaeoclimatic sensitivity of the Paratethys due to this palaeogeographic configuration potentially contributed to the magnitude of SST deterioration during the EOC. The revealed palaeoclimatic pattern shows a strong correlation with isotope event Mi-1b in deep-sea δ18O records, and we propose a tight palaeoclimatic link between the Southern Ocean and the Paratethys/Mediterranean realm as an alternative hypothesis. The interplay of modulations in the long-term (~ 400 kyrs) and short-term (~ 100 kyrs) eccentricity cycles most likely acted as pacemaker of this palaeoclimatic interaction.

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