A key demographic hypothesis has been that fertility declines rely on stopping at target parities, but emerging evidence suggests that women frequently reduce fertility without specific numeric targets. To assess the relative importance of these two paths to fertility decline, we develop a novel mixture model to estimate: (1) the proportion of a sample that stopped at a target parity and (2) the mean completed fertility among those who did not. Applied to Demographic and Health Survey data from women (ages 45-49) in 84 low-and middle-income countries as well as U.S. census cohorts, this model shows considerable variation in the proportion stopping at specific parities (1%-84%). These estimates also suggest that declines in completed fertility are largely attributed to women who did not stop at target parities. This suggests that stopping at ideal parities may be less important than parityindependent decisions for a wide range of fertility transitions.

Purpose: Food insecurity is an urgent crisis in the United States, with one in nine people lacking a consistent source of the food necessary for an active and healthy lifestyle. This crisis is particularly dire in Maricopa County, Arizona, where 1 in 5 children experience food insecurity, and >1 in 10 residents experience poverty. Mobile food pantries offer an additional resource to address food insecurity; however, there is minimal knowledge about how communities utilize these food distributors. Background: Research on the elderly (people >60 years) and immigrant populations shows that these populations are especially vulnerable to food insecurity. The risk these groups face is compounded in Maricopa County, the 15th largest county in the country with minimal public transit to extant resources. Mobile food pantries offer one solution to this issue, bringing groceries and other important items directly to communities. Methods: This study utilizes data from a food pantry called “Phoenix Rescue Mission” (PRM) on food insecure people's use of PRM's mobile and brick-and-mortar pantries, as well as census data. Using GIS mapping and a multinomial logistic regression model, this research identifies how different demographic groups engage with PRM's brick-and-mortar or mobile pantries. Results: Findings indicate that people aged 60–80 years and immigrant people of color are more likely to use both mobile and brick-and-mortar pantries. Conclusions: This research suggests that mobile pantries can reach the most food insecure populations and local nonprofits and governments can consider implementing mobile pantries to reach food insecure communities.

In the U.S. state of Arizona, nearly one-third of households experienced food insecurity during the COVID-19 pandemic, an increase from one-fourth of households before the pandemic. Previous research on food insecurity in the wake of natural and human-instigated disasters demonstrates that groups vulnerable to food insecurity before a disaster are more susceptible to food insecurity during and after that disaster; however, less is known about whether this relationship also holds true during health-related disasters, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. We explore how the COVID-19 pandemic influenced urban food insecurity patterns by analyzing the socio-demographic characteristics of food pantry clients in Maricopa County, Arizona. Using data from Phoenix Rescue Mission (PRM), a local non-profit food service provider, two binomial logistic regression models compare the socio-demographic composition of total and first-time food pantry users before and during the pandemic. In addition to an overall increase in food pantry usage during the pandemic, we find that, while certain socio-demographic groups historically vulnerable to food insecurity experienced the predicted uptick in insecurity during the pandemic, other socio-demographic disparities were attenuated. These somewhat disparate findings illustrate the complex relationship between disasters and food insecurity in an urban context, offering several avenues for future research.

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