We introduce a novel statistical method, PyClone, for inference of clonal population structures in cancers. PyClone is a Bayesian clustering method for grouping sets of deeply sequenced somatic mutations into putative clonal clusters while estimating their cellular prevalences and accounting for allelic imbalances introduced by segmental copy number changes and normal cell contamination. Single cell sequencing validation demonstrates that PyClone infers accurate clustering of mutations that co-occur in individual cells.Human cancer progresses under Darwinian evolution where (epi)genetic variation alters molecular phenotypes in individual cells 1 . Consequently, tumours at diagnosis often consist of multiple, genotypically distinct cell populations ( Supplementary Fig. 1) 2 . These populations, referred to as clones, are related through a phylogeny and act as substrates for selection in tumour micro-environments or with therapeutic intervention 2, 3 . The prevalence of a particular clone measured over time or in anatomic space is a reflection of its growth and proliferative fitness. Thus, ascertaining the dynamic prevalence of clones can identify precise genetic determinants of phenotypes such as acquisition of metastatic potential or chemotherapeutic resistance.In this contribution, we provide a statistical model for analysis of deeply sequenced (coverage >1000x) mutations to identify and quantify clonal populations in tumours, which extends to modelling mutations measured in multiple samples from the same patient. Our approach uses the measurement of allelic prevalence to estimate the proportion of tumour ♣

We performed phylogenetic analysis of high-grade serous ovarian cancers (68 samples from seven patients), identifying constituent clones and quantifying their relative abundances at multiple intraperitoneal sites. Through whole-genome and single-nucleus sequencing, we identified evolutionary features including mutation loss, convergence of the structural genome and temporal activation of mutational processes that patterned clonal progression. We then determined the precise clonal mixtures comprising each tumor sample. The majority of sites were clonally pure or composed of clones from a single phylogenetic clade. However, each patient contained at least one site composed of polyphyletic clones. Five patients exhibited monoclonal and unidirectional seeding from the ovary to intraperitoneal sites, and two patients demonstrated polyclonal spread and reseeding. Our findings indicate that at least two distinct modes of intraperitoneal spread operate in clonal dissemination and highlight the distribution of migratory potential over clonal populations comprising high-grade serous ovarian cancers.

Many Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques currently available rely on discrete-time reversible Markov processes whose transition kernels are variations of the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. We explore and generalize an alternative scheme recently introduced in the physics literature [27] where the target distribution is explored using a continuous-time non-reversible piecewise-deterministic Markov process. In the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, a trial move to a region of lower target density, equivalently of higher "energy", than the current state can be rejected with positive probability. In this alternative approach, a particle moves along straight lines around the space and, when facing a high energy barrier, it is not rejected but its path is modified by bouncing against this barrier. By reformulating this algorithm using inhomogeneous Poisson processes, we exploit standard sampling techniques to simulate exactly this Markov process in a wide range of scenarios of interest. Additionally, when the target distribution is given by a product of factors dependent only on subsets of the state variables, such as the posterior distribution associated with a probabilistic graphical model, this method can be modified to take advantage of this structure by allowing computationally cheaper "local" bounces which only involve the state variables associated to a factor, while the other state variables keep on evolving. In this context, by leveraging techniques from chemical kinetics, we propose several computationally efficient implementations. Experimentally, this new class of Markov chain Monte Carlo schemes compares favorably to state-of-the-art methods on various Bayesian inference tasks, including for high dimensional models and large data sets.

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSC) exhibits extensive malignant clonal diversity with widespread but non-random patterns of disease dissemination. We investigated whether local immune microenvironment factors shape tumor progression properties at the interface of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and cancer cells. Through multi-region study of 212 samples from 38 patients with whole-genome sequencing, immunohistochemistry, histologic image analysis, gene expression profiling, and T and B cell receptor sequencing, we identified three immunologic subtypes across samples and extensive within-patient diversity. Epithelial CD8+ TILs negatively associated with malignant diversity, reflecting immunological pruning of tumor clones inferred by neoantigen depletion, HLA I loss of heterozygosity, and spatial tracking between T cell and tumor clones. In addition, combinatorial prognostic effects of mutational processes and immune properties were observed, illuminating how specific genomic aberration types associate with immune response and impact survival. We conclude that within-patient spatial immune microenvironment variation shapes intraperitoneal malignant spread, provoking new evolutionary perspectives on HGSC clonal dispersion.

Single-cell DNA sequencing has great potential to reveal the clonal genotypes and population structure of human cancers. However, single-cell data suffer from missing values and biased allelic counts as well as false genotype measurements owing to the sequencing of multiple cells. We describe the Single Cell Genotyper (https://bitbucket.org/aroth85/scg), an open-source software based on a statistical model coupled with a mean-field variational inference method, which can be used to address these problems and robustly infer clonal genotypes.