This update on the African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks in the EU demonstrated that out of all tested wild boar found dead, the proportion of positive samples peaked in winter and summer. For domestic pigs only, a summer peak was evident. Despite the existence of several plausible factors that could result in the observed seasonality, there is no evidence to prove causality. Wild boar density was the most influential risk factor for the occurrence of ASF in wild boar. In the vast majority of introductions in domestic pig holdings, direct contact with infected domestic pigs or wild boar was excluded as the route of introduction. The implementation of emergency measures in the wild boar management zones following a focal ASF introduction was evaluated. As a sole control strategy, intensive hunting around the buffer area might not always be sufficient to eradicate ASF. However, the probability of eradication success is increased after adding quick and safe carcass removal. A wider buffer area leads to a higher success probability; however it implies a larger intensive hunting area and the need for more animals to be hunted. If carcass removal and intensive hunting are effectively implemented, fencing is more useful for delineating zones, rather than adding substantially to control efficacy. However, segments of fencing will be particularly useful in those areas where carcass removal or intensive hunting is difficult to implement. It was not possible to demonstrate an effect of natural barriers on ASF spread. Human‐mediated translocation may override any effect of natural barriers. Recommendations for ASF control in four different epidemiological scenarios are presented.

African swine fever (ASF) entered Georgia in 2007 and the EU in 2014. In the EU, the virus primarily spread in wild boar (Sus scrofa) in the period from 2014-2018. However, from the summer 2018, numerous domestic pig farms in Romania were affected by ASF. In contrast to the existing knowledge on ASF transmission routes, the understanding of risk factors and the importance of different transmission routes is still limited. In the period from May to September 2019, 655 Romanian pig farms were included in a matched case-control study investigating possible risk factors for ASF incursion in commercial and backyard pig farms. The results showed that close proximity to outbreaks in domestic farms was a risk factor in commercial as well as backyard farms. Furthermore, in backyard farms, herd size, wild boar abundance around the farm, number of domestic outbreaks within 2 km around farms, short distance to wild boar cases and visits of professionals working on farms were statistically significant risk factors. Additionally, growing crops around the farm, which could potentially attract wild boar, and feeding forage from ASF affected areas to the pigs were risk factors for ASF incursion in backyard farms. In 2007, African swine fever (ASF) spread from the African continent, where the disease is endemic, into Georgia then on through Eastern Europe, reaching the European Union in 2014. During the first years of the epidemic in the EU (2014-early 2017), the disease mainly affected wild boar, with sporadic spill-over to domestic pigs 1. In 2017, ASF spread to Romania, initially resulting in a small number of outbreaks in domestic pig farms in the county of Satu Mare, which neighbours Hungary and Ukraine. In July 2018, ASF occurred in two counties neighbouring Satu Mare, but also in five counties around the Danube delta close to the Black Sea in the South East part of Romania. In July 2018, 334 outbreaks were detected, mostly in domestic farms, predominantly in the South East. From then on, ASF spread widely in Romania with outbreaks in more than 1,000 domestic pig farms in 2018 and about 2,500 in 2019 (Animal Disease Notification System of the European Commission (ADNS)).

This report provides an update of the epidemiology of African swine fever (ASF) in the European Union during the period November 2018 to October 2019. In this period, ASF has been confirmed in Slovakia, whereas Czechia became officially ASF-free in March 2019, bringing the number of affected countries in the EU to nine. The report provides a narrative update of the situation in the different countries and an analysis of the temporal and spatial patterns of the disease. There has been no increase in the proportion of seropositive hunted wild boar in the affected areas. In hunted animals, the proportions of wild boar testing polymerase chain reaction-positive and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay-positive has remained low (< 0.05). In addition to the obvious seasonal peak in summer in domestic pigs, seasonality of ASF in wild boar was statistically confirmed. A network analysis demonstrated that the median velocity of the natural propagation of the disease in wild boar populations was between 2.9 and 11.7 km/year. Human-mediated spread, both in pigs and wild boar, however, remains important. Several wild boar-and domestic pig-related risk factors for ASF occurrence in non-commercial farms in Romania were identified with a case-control study. This report also updates an extensive literature review on control measures to stop the spread of the disease in wild boar and on measures to separate wild boar populations. Several new studies have been identified in this reporting period, but these did not alter the conclusions of the previous reporting period. Field experience with the use of fences as part of the control strategy deployed in the Belgian focal outbreak of ASF in wild boar is described. So far, the measures have proven effective to keep ASF virus inside the affected area. This strategy included a combination of different measures, namely zoning, carcass removal, a complete feeding ban, specific hunting regulations and depopulation actions depending on the zone, a partial ban of people and logging, and setting up a network of concentric fences.

Climate and land use changes are major threats to biodiversity. To preserve biodiversity, networks of protected areas have been established worldwide, like the Natura 2000 network across the European Union (EU). Currently, this reserve network consists of more than 26000 sites covering more than 17% of EU terrestrial territory. Its efficiency to mitigate the detrimental effects of land use and climate change remains an open research question. Here, we examined the potential current and future geographical ranges of four birds of prey under scenarios of both land use and climate changes. By using graph theory, we examined how the current Natura 2000 network will perform in regard to the conservation of these species. This approach determines the importance of a site in regard to the total network and its connectivity. We found that sites becoming unsuitable due to climate change are not a random sample of the network, but are less connected and contribute less to the overall connectivity than the average site and thus their loss does not disrupt the full network. Hence, the connectivity of the remaining network changed only slightly from present day conditions. Our findings highlight the need to establish species-specific management plans with flexible conservation strategies ensuring protection under potential future range expansions. Aquila pomarina is predicted to disappear from the southern part of its range and to become restricted to northeastern Europe. Gyps fulvus, Aquila chrysaetos, and Neophron percnopterus are predicted to locally lose some suitable sites; hence, some isolated small populations may become extinct. However, their geographical range and metapopulation structure will remain relatively unaffected throughout Europe. These species would benefit more from an improved habitat quality and management of the existing network of protected areas than from increased connectivity or assisted migration.

1. The effect of climate change on wild bee communities is of major concern since the decline of bee species could imperil the provision of pollination services. Additionally, habitat loss and fragmentation are major threats to wild bee populations, but improvements to the landscape structure could also improve the general conditions for wild bees. However, potential interactive effects of climate change and landscape structure on wild bee communities remain unknown. 2. In this study, we assessed the potential of semi-natural areas to maintain robust communities under changing weather conditions. We used bee monitoring data from six 4 9 4 km field sites across Germany. Almost 30 000 bee specimens were collected from 2010 to 2012 in 16 local communities per site at six sampling occasions per year. Following a multimodel inference approach, we identified the most important weather and landscape variables as well as interaction terms that affect wild bee species richness and total abundance. 3. Correcting for overall phenology, we found a strong negative relationship between bee species richness and temperature, indicating that future increasing temperatures will lead to a decrease in species richness. However, a high proportion of semi-natural habitats can considerably decrease the detrimental effect of warmer temperatures on bee species richness and abundance. 4. Synthesis and applications. Semi-natural areas and green infrastructure elements within agricultural landscapes become even more important under changing temperature conditions to mitigate the negative effects of increasing temperatures on wild bee species richness and total abundance. This has important implications for conservation decision making, suggesting that maintaining or restoring a fair amount of semi-natural areas could serve as a countermeasure against climate change for wild bees.