It is well known that electrical-power generation plays the key role in advances in industry, agriculture, technology, and standard of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for a country's independence. In general, electrical energy can be mainly generated from: (1) nonrenewable energy sources (75.5% of the total electricity generation) such as coal (38.3%), natural gas (23.1%), oil (3.7%), and nuclear (10.4%); and (2) renewable energy sources (24.5%) such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and marine power. Today, the main sources for electrical-energy generation are: (1) thermal power (61.4%)—primarily using coal and secondarily using natural gas; (2) “large” hydro-electric plants (16.6%); and (3) nuclear power (10.4%). The balance of the energy sources (11.6%) is from using oil, biomass, wind, geothermal, and solar, and has visible impact just in a few countries. This paper presents the current status of electricity generation in the world, various sources of industrial electricity generation and role of nuclear power with a comparison of nuclear-energy systems to other energy systems. A comparison of the latest data on electricity generation with those several years old shows that world usage of coal, gas, nuclear, and oil has decreased by 1–2%, but usage of renewables has increased by 1% for hydro and 2% for other renewable sources. Unfortunately, within last years, electricity generation with nuclear power has decreased from 14% before the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) severe accident in March 2011 to about 10%. Therefore, it is important to evaluate current status of nuclear-power industry and to make projections on near (5–10 yr) and far away (10–25 yr and beyond) future trends.
Electricity generation is the key factor for advances in industry, agriculture, technology and the level of living. Also, strong power industry with diverse energy sources is very important for country independence. In general, electricity can be generated from: 1) non-renewable energy sources such as coal, natural gas, oil, and nuclear; and 2) renewable energy sources such as hydro, biomass, wind, geothermal, solar, and wave power. However, the major energy sources for electricity generation in the world are: 1) thermal power-primarily using coal (~40%) and secondarily natural gas (~23%); 2) "large" hydro power plants (~17%) and 3) nuclear power from various reactor designs (~11%). The rest of the energy sources for electricity generation is from using oil (~4%) and renewable sources such as biomass, wind, geothermal and solar (~5%), which have just visible impact in selected countries. In addition, energy sources, such as wind and solar, and some others, like tidal and wave-power, are intermittent from depending on Mother Nature. And cannot be used alone for industrial electricity generation. Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation in the country. Currently, Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) generate about 45.5% of the total electricity followed with coal generation-38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants-5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on four NPPs (15 Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) including the largest one in Europe-Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. Two of these 15 reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are ~45-year old) several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry in the world and Ukraine. Unfortunately, all these projections are quite pessimistic. There is a possibility that around 2030-2040 the vast majority of the world reactors and Ukrainian reactors will be shut down, and, in particular, Ukraine can be left without the basic and vital source of electricity generation..
Nuclear power in Ukraine is the most important source of electricity generation. Currently, Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) generate 45.5% of the total electricity in the country followed with coal generation – 38%, gas generation 9.6% and the rest is based on renewable sources, mainly on hydro power plants – 5.9%. Nuclear-power industry is based on 4 NPPs including the largest one in Europe – Zaporizhzhya NPP with about 6,000 MWel gross installed capacity. These NPPs are equipped with 13 VVER-1000 and 2 VVER-440 Russian-design Pressurized Water Reactors (PWRs) with the total gross installed capacity of 13,800 MWel. Layout of these NPPs, thermodynamic diagram and thermal efficiencies are provided. Thermal efficiencies have been calculated with the IAEA Desalination Thermodynamic Optimization Programme DE-TOP and compared to the actual ones. Two of these reactors have been built and put into operation in 70-s, ten in 80-s, one in 90-s and just two in 2004. Therefore, based on an analysis of the world power reactors in terms of their maximum years of operation (currently, the oldest reactors are 45-year old) several projections have been made for future of the nuclear-power industry in Ukraine. Unfortunately, all these projections are quite pessimistic. There is a possibility that around 2030–2035 the vast majority of the Ukrainian reactors will be shut down, and Ukraine can be left without the basic and vital source of electricity generation. Also, current problems of Ukrainian NPPs are: 1) lower capacity factors (around 80%) compared to those in other countries (∼90%); 2) uncertainties with nuclear-fuel supply due to political situation; and 3) service and repairs of relatively old reactors.
Currently, nuclear power plays a quite visible role in the world electricity generation (∼11%). However, before the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) severe accident in March of 2011, NPPs generated about 14% of the world’s electricity. Accounting that after, mainly, Chernobyl NPP severe accident a number of power reactors built and put into operation in the world decreased from 120 within 1985–1990 to about 22 per 5 years (within 1995–2015), we might face a significant shortage of operating power reactors within 2030–2040. Therefore, it is important to evaluate current status of nuclear-power industry and to make projections on near (5–10 years) and far away (10–25 years and beyond) future trends in nuclear-power industry. In the current paper statistics on all current nuclear-power reactors were analyzed and based on that future trends were estimated in terms of types of reactors to be left after 10 years, new types of reactors to be put into operation, projections of how many reactors and of which types will be build. To make any projections an average operating term of power reactors should be estimated. In the current paper a nuclear-power-reactor operating term of 45 years was considered. Also, rates of building and putting into operation power reactors worldwide were estimated, and several scenarios of future developments in nuclear-power industry in the world and in selected countries were considered.
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