BackgroundStreptococcus pneumoniae is a common cause of community acquired pneumonia and bacteremia. Excess wintertime mortality related to pneumonia has been noted for over a century, but the seasonality of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) has been described relatively recently and is poorly understood. Improved understanding of environmental influence on disease seasonality has taken on new urgency due to global climate change.MethodsWe evaluated 602 cases of IPD reported in Philadelphia County, Pennsylvania, from 2002 to 2007. Poisson regression models incorporating seasonal smoothers were used to identify associations between weekly weather patterns and case counts. Associations between acute (day-to-day) environmental fluctuations and IPD occurrence were evaluated using a case-crossover approach. Effect modification across age and sex strata was explored, and meta-regression models were created using stratum-specific estimates for effect.ResultsIPD incidence was greatest in the wintertime, and spectral decomposition revealed a peak at 51.0 weeks, consistent with annual periodicity. After adjustment for seasonality, yearly increases in reporting, and temperature, weekly incidence was found to be associated with clear-sky UV index (IRR per unit increase in index: 0.70 [95% CI 0.54-0.91]). The effect of UV index was highest among young strata and decreased with age. At shorter time scales, only an association with increases in ambient sulphur oxides was linked to disease risk (OR for highest tertile of exposure 0.75, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.93).ConclusionWe confirmed the wintertime predominance of IPD in a major urban center. The major predictor of IPD in Philadelphia is extended periods of low UV radiation, which may explain observed wintertime seasonality. The mechanism of action of diminished light exposure on disease occurrence may be due to direct effects on pathogen survival or host immune function via altered 1,25-(OH)2-vitamin-D metabolism. These findings may suggest less diminution in future IPD risk with climate change than would be expected if wintertime seasonality was driven by temperature.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is an important cause of meningitis and bacteremia worldwide. Seasonal variation in IMD incidence has long been recognized, but mechanisms responsible for this phenomenon remain poorly understood. The authors sought to evaluate the effect of environmental factors on IMD risk in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, a major urban center. Associations between monthly weather patterns and IMD incidence were evaluated using multivariable Poisson regression models controlling for seasonal oscillation. Short-term weather effects were identified using a case-crossover approach. Both study designs control for seasonal factors that might otherwise confound the relation between environment and IMD. Incidence displayed significant wintertime seasonality (for oscillation, P < 0.001), and Poisson regression identified elevated monthly risk with increasing relative humidity (per 1% increase, incidence rate ratio = 1.04, 95% confidence interval: 1.004, 1.08). Case-crossover methods identified an inverse relation between ultraviolet B radiation index 1–4 days prior to onset and disease risk (odds ratio = 0.54, 95% confidence interval: 0.34, 0.85). Extended periods of high humidity and acute changes in ambient ultraviolet B radiation predict IMD occurrence in Philadelphia. The latter effect may be due to decreased pathogen survival or virulence and may explain the wintertime seasonality of IMD in temperate regions of North America.

Campylobacter species infections are a common cause of acute gastroenteritis, and may uncommonly be complicated by renal, neurological, and rheumatologic sequelae. Although excess summertime campylobacteriosis has been observed, environmental mechanisms driving disease seasonality are poorly understood. We sought to evaluate the relationship between environmental factors and campylobacteriosis risk in a major North American metropolitan area. We evaluated 1532 cases of campylobacteriosis reported in Philadelphia between 1994 and 2007. We constructed Poisson regression models with oscillatory smoothers, and also used case-crossover design, to evaluate the associations between environmental exposures and disease risk on weekly and daily time scales. Both methods control for confounding by seasonally oscillating environmental factors. Incidence was greatest in June and July, with annual periodicity. Weekly incidence was associated with increasing relative humidity, (incidence rate ratio (IRR) per % 1.017, 95% CI 1.008-1.025), temperature (IRR per degrees C 1.041, 95% CI 1.011-1.072), and decreasing Delaware River temperature during the same week (IRR per degrees C 0.922, 95% CI 0.883-0.962), and at 4-week lags (IRR per degrees C 0.953, 95% CI 0.919-0.990). No acute associations were identified in case-crossover analyses. Our findings affirm the summertime seasonality of campylobacteriosis in Philadelphia, and the link between warm, humid weather and disease risk. However, the link between low river temperatures and enhanced campylobacteriosis risk in humans described here is novel, consistent with known links between watershed temperature and Campylobacter survival, and implicates local watersheds as epidemiologically important reservoirs for foodborne pathogens.

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BACKGROUND Tranexamic acid (TXA) therapy is effective in reducing postoperative red blood cell (RBC) transfusion in total joint arthroplasty (TJA), yet uncertainty persists regarding comparative efficacy and safety among specific patient subgroups. We assessed the impact of a universal TXA protocol on RBC transfusion, postoperative hemoglobin (Hb), and adverse outcomes to determine whether TXA is safe and effective in TJA, both overall and in clinically relevant subgroups. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS A retrospective observational study was performed on patients undergoing TJA at our institution spanning 1 year before and after the implementation of a universal protocol to administer intravenous (IV) TXA. The primary outcome was percentage of patients transfused, and secondary outcomes were perioperative Hb and occurrence of adverse events (death, myocardial infarction, stroke, seizure, pulmonary embolism, deep vein thrombosis, and acute kidney injury ). Outcomes were compared in pre‐ and post‐protocol groups with χ2 analysis. Logistic regression compared risk of transfusion in pre‐ and post‐protocol subgroups of patients with differing risk for transfusion (anemia, body mass index [BMI], and sex). RESULTS No differences were found in baseline patient characteristics across pre‐ and post‐protocol groups (n = 1084 and 912, respectively). TXA use increased from 32.3% to 92.2% while transfusion rates decreased from 10.3% to 4.8% (p < 0.001). Postoperative Day 3 Hb increased from 95.8 to 101.4 g/L (p < 0.001). Logistic regression demonstrated reduced transfusion in post‐protocol subgroups regardless of sex, anemia, or BMI (p < 0.001). No increase in adverse events was observed (p = 0.8451). CONCLUSIONS Universal TXA was associated with a reduction of RBC transfusion, overall and in clinically relevant subgroups, strengthening the rationale for universal therapy.

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Summary The least squares method of fitting a line is not one that naturally occurs to students. We present three tasks to understand student views on how lines may be fit.

Purpose We present a case of upper airway obstruction in a patient with an unstable cervical spine fracture in a halo orthosis. We also describe the mechanism by which the obstruction occurred and identify features that predispose patients in a halo orthosis to upper airway obstruction. Case An 81-yr-old female presenting to hospital with an unstable cervical spine fracture was scheduled for spinal fusion. She was fitted with a halo traction device in a flexed position, and an awake tracheal intubation was planned. The patient's airway was topicalized and 1 mg of midazolam was administered. Her oxygen saturation dropped, and mask ventilation was difficult and insufficient. She then became unresponsive and pulseless.