This paper uses Chinese customs data to investigate the trade effects of anti-dumping (AD) policies. Merging firm-level exports to firm-specific AD duties, we exploit differences across firms within products. This reduces endogeneity concerns which have plagued earlier research. Based on a firm-level gravity model, we find that, in line with literature, AD duties reduce exports, induce firm exit but do not affect producer prices. However, our strategy yields substantially larger estimates which differ strongly across sectors. More interestingly, imports to the EU react differently compared to those to the US; a finding with obvious implications for the design of AD policies. Smaller exporters are more heavily affected than larger ones, suggesting important within-industry reallocation effects. Moreover, we find evidence for trade deflection as AD duties lead to market entry of Chinese firms into third countries.
With ever-increasing political tensions between China and Russia on one side and the EU and the US on the other, it only seems a matter of time until protectionist policies cause a decoupling of global value chains. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium trade model calibrated with the latest version of the GTAP database to simulate the effect of such a decoupling–implemented by doubling non-tariff barriers–between the two blocks on trade and welfare. Imposing import barriers almost completely eliminates bilateral imports. In addition, changes in price levels lead to higher imports and lower exports of the imposing country group from and to the rest of the world. The targeted country group increases exports to the rest of the world and reduces imports. Welfare falls in all countries involved, suggesting that governments should strive to cooperate rather than turn away from each other. By imposing a trade war on Russia, the political West could inflict severe damage on the Russian economy because of the latter’s smaller relative economic size.
This paper examines how varying antidumping methodologies applied within the World Trade Organization differ in the extent to which they reduce targeted exports. We show that antidumping duties, on average, hit Chinese exporters harder than those of other targeted countries. This difference can be traced back in part to China's non‐market economy status, which affects the way antidumping duties are calculated. Furthermore, we show that the type of imposed duty matters, as ad‐valorem duties affect exports differently compared to specific duties or duties conditional on the export price. Overall, however, antidumping duties remain effective in reducing imports independent of market economy status.
Overall, decoupling from certain countries may be both politically necessary and economically feasible, at least in the long run. However, a general shift of production back to Europe would be accompanied by significant losses in real income.
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