The European steppes and their biota have been hypothesized to be either young remnants of the Pleistocene steppe belt or, alternatively, to represent relicts of long-term persisting populations; both scenarios directly bear on nature conservation priorities. Here, we evaluate the conservation value of threatened disjunct steppic grassland habitats in Europe in the context of the Eurasian steppe biome. We use genomic data and ecological niche modelling to assess pre-defined, biome-specific criteria for three plant and three arthropod species. We show that the evolutionary history of Eurasian steppe biota is strikingly congruent across species. The biota of European steppe outposts were long-term isolated from the Asian steppes, and European steppes emerged as disproportionally conservation relevant, harbouring regionally endemic genetic lineages, large genetic diversity, and a mosaic of stable refugia. We emphasize that conserving what is left of Europe's steppes is crucial for conserving the biological diversity of the entire Eurasian steppe biome.

BackgroundThe transition from outcrossing to selfing has long been portrayed as an ‘evolutionary dead end’ because, first, reversals are unlikely and, second, selfing lineages suffer from higher rates of extinction owing to a reduced potential for adaptation and the accumulation of deleterious mutations. We tested these two predictions in a clade of Madagascan Bulbophyllum orchids (30 spp.), including eight species where auto-pollinating morphs (i.e., selfers, without a ‘rostellum’) co-exist with their pollinator-dependent conspecifics (i.e., outcrossers, possessing a rostellum). Specifically, we addressed this issue on the basis of a time-calibrated phylogeny by means of ancestral character reconstructions and within the state-dependent evolution framework of BiSSE (Binary State Speciation and Extinction), which allowed jointly estimating rates of transition, speciation, and extinction between outcrossing and selfing.ResultsThe eight species capable of selfing occurred in scattered positions across the phylogeny, with two likely originating in the Pliocene (ca. 4.4–3.1 Ma), one in the Early Pleistocene (ca. 2.4 Ma), and five since the mid-Pleistocene (ca. ≤ 1.3 Ma). We infer that this scattered phylogenetic distribution of selfing is best described by models including up to eight independent outcrossing-to-selfing transitions and very low rates of speciation (and either moderate or zero rates of extinction) associated with selfing.ConclusionsThe frequent and irreversible outcrossing-to-selfing transitions in Madagascan Bulbophyllum are clearly congruent with the first prediction of the dead end hypothesis. The inability of our study to conclusively reject or support the likewise predicted higher extinction rate in selfing lineages might be explained by a combination of methodological limitations (low statistical power of our BiSSE approach to reliably estimate extinction in small-sized trees) and evolutionary processes (insufficient time elapsed for selfers to go extinct). We suggest that, in these tropical orchids, a simple genetic basis of selfing (via loss of the ‘rostellum’) is needed to explain the strikingly recurrent transitions to selfing, perhaps reflecting rapid response to parallel and novel selective environments over Late Quaternary (≤ 1.3 Ma) time scales.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0471-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

MotivationIn order to understand how species evolutionarily responded to Plio‐Pleistocene climate oscillations (e.g. in terms of speciation, extinction, migration and adaptation), it is first important to have a good understanding of those past climate changes per se. This, however, is currently limited due to the lack of global‐scale climatic datasets with high temporal resolution spanning the Plio‐Pleistocene. To fill this gap, I here present Oscillayers, a global‐scale and region‐specific bioclim dataset, facilitating the study of climatic oscillations during the last 5.4 million years at high spatial (2.5 arc‐minutes) and temporal (10 kyr time periods) resolution. This dataset builds upon interpolated anomalies (Δ layers) between bioclim layers of the present and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) that are scaled relative to the Plio‐Pleistocene global mean temperature curve, derived from benthic stable oxygen isotope ratios, to generate bioclim variables for 539 time periods. Evaluation of the scaled, interpolated estimates of palaeo‐climates generated for the Holocene, Last Interglacial and Pliocene showed good agreement with independent general circulation models (GCMs) for respective time periods in terms of pattern correlation and absolute differences. Oscillayers thus provides a new tool for studying spatial‐temporal patterns of evolutionary and ecological processes at high temporal and spatial resolution.Main types of variable containedNineteen bioclim variables for time periods throughout the Plio‐Pleistocene. Input data and R script to recreate all 19 bioclim variables.Spatial location and grainGlobal at 2.5 arc‐minutes (4.65 x 4.65 = 21.62 km2 at the equator).Time period and grainThe last 5.4 million years. The grain is 10 kyr (= 539 time periods).Level of measurementData are for terrestrial climates (excluding Antarctica) taking sea level changes into account.Software formatAll data are available as ASCII grid files.

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Background Tropical rainforests (TRFs) harbour almost half of the world’s vascular plant species diversity while covering only about 6–7% of land. However, why species richness varies amongst the Earth’s major TRF regions remains poorly understood. Here we investigate the evolutionary processes shaping continental species richness disparities of the pantropical, epiphytic and mostly TRF-dwelling orchid mega-genus Bulbophyllum ( c. 1948 spp. in total) using diversification analyses based on a time-calibrated molecular phylogeny (including c. 45–50% spp. each from Madagascar, Africa, Neotropics, and 8.4% from the Asia-Pacific region), coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM) of geographic distributions under present and past (Last Glacial Maximum; LGM) conditions. Results Our results suggest an early-to-late Miocene scenario of ‘out-of-Asia-Pacific’ origin and progressive, dispersal-mediated diversification in Madagascar, Africa and the Neotropics, respectively. Species richness disparities amongst these four TRF lineages are best explained by a time-for-speciation (i.e. clade age) effect rather than differences in net diversification or diversity-dependent diversification due to present or past spatial-bioclimatic limits. For each well-sampled lineage (Madagascar, Africa, Neotropics), we inferred high rates of speciation and extinction over time (i.e. high species turnover), yet with the origin of most extant species falling into the Quaternary. In contrast to predictions of classical ‘glacial refuge’ theories, all four lineages experienced dramatic range expansions during the LGM. Conclusions As the Madagascan, African and Neotropical lineages display constant-rate evolution since their origin (early-to-mid-Miocene), Quaternary environmental change might be a less important cause of their high species turnover than intrinsic features generally conferring rapid population turnover in tropical orchids (e.g., epiphytism, specialization on pollinators and mycorrhizal fungi, wind dispersal). Nonetheless, climate-induced range fluctuations during the Quaternary could still have played an influential role in the origination and extinction of Bulbophyllum species in those three, if not in all four TRF regions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-019-1416-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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BackgroundSpecies or clades may retain or shift their environmental niche space over evolutionary time. Understanding these processes offers insights into the environmental processes fuelling lineage diversification and might also provide information on past range dynamics of ecosystems. However, little is known about the relative contributions of niche conservatism versus niche divergence to species diversification in the tropics. Here, we examined broad-scale patterns of niche evolution within a Pliocene–Pleistocene clade of epiphytic Bulbophyllum orchids (30 spp.) whose collective distribution covers the northwest and eastern forest ecosystems of Madagascar.ResultsUsing species occurrence data, ecological niche models, and multivariate analyses of contributing variables, we identified a three-state niche distribution character for the entire clade, coinciding with three major forest biomes viz. phytogeographical provinces in Madagascar: A, Northwest ‘Sambirano’; B, ‘Eastern Lowlands’; and C, ‘Central Highlands’. A time-calibrated phylogeny and Bayesian models of niche evolution were then used to detect general trends in the direction of niche change over the clade’s history (≤5.3 Ma). We found highest transitions rates between lowlands (A and B) and (mostly from B) into the highland (C), with extremely low rates out of the latter. Lowland-to-highland transitions occurred frequently during the Quaternary, suggesting that climate-induced vegetational shifts promoted niche transitions and ecological speciation at this time.ConclusionsOur results reveal that niche transitions occurred frequently and asymmetrically within this Madagascan orchid clade, and in particular over Quaternary time scales. Intrinsic features germane to Bulbophyllum (e.g., high dispersal ability, drought tolerance, multiple photosynthetic pathways) as well as extrinsic factors (ecological, historical) likely interacted to generate the niche transition patterns observed. In sum, our results support the emerging idea of dramatic environmental and climatic fluctuations in Madagascar during the recent geological past, which overturns the long-held paradigm of long-term stability in tropical forest settings. The generality of the patterns and timings reported here awaits the availability of additional comparative studies in other Madagascan endemics.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-016-0586-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

The Binary State Speciation and Extinction (BiSSE) method is one of the most popular tools for investigating the rates of diversification and character evolution. Yet, based on previous simulation studies, it is commonly held that the BiSSE method requires phylogenetic trees of fairly large sample sizes (>300 taxa) in order to distinguish between the different models of speciation, extinction, or transition rate asymmetry. Here, the power of the BiSSE method is reevaluated by simulating trees of both small and large sample sizes (30, 60, 90, and 300 taxa) under various asymmetry models and root state assumptions. Results show that the power of the BiSSE method can be much higher, also in trees of small sample size, for detecting differences in speciation rate asymmetry than anticipated earlier. This, however, is not a consequence of any conceptual or mathematical flaw in the method per se but rather of assumptions about the character state at the root of the simulated trees and thus the underlying macroevolutionary model, which led to biased results and conclusions in earlier power assessments. As such, these earlier simulation studies used to determine the power of BiSSE were not incorrect but biased, leading to an overestimation of type-II statistical error for detecting differences in speciation rate but not for extinction and transition rates.