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Patients with severe COVID-19 have overwhelmed healthcare systems worldwide. We hypothesized that machine learning (ML) models could be used to predict risks at different stages of management and thereby provide insights into drivers and prognostic markers of disease progression and death. From a cohort of approx. 2.6 million citizens in Denmark, SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were performed on subjects suspected for COVID-19 disease; 3944 cases had at least one positive test and were subjected to further analysis. SARS-CoV-2 positive cases from the United Kingdom Biobank was used for external validation. The ML models predicted the risk of death (Receiver Operation Characteristics—Area Under the Curve, ROC-AUC) of 0.906 at diagnosis, 0.818, at hospital admission and 0.721 at Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admission. Similar metrics were achieved for predicted risks of hospital and ICU admission and use of mechanical ventilation. Common risk factors, included age, body mass index and hypertension, although the top risk features shifted towards markers of shock and organ dysfunction in ICU patients. The external validation indicated fair predictive performance for mortality prediction, but suboptimal performance for predicting ICU admission. ML may be used to identify drivers of progression to more severe disease and for prognostication patients in patients with COVID-19. We provide access to an online risk calculator based on these findings.

Background Early detection of postoperative complications, including organ failure, is pivotal in the initiation of targeted treatment strategies aimed at attenuating organ damage. In an era of increasing health-care costs and limited financial resources, identifying surgical patients at a high risk of postoperative complications and providing personalised precision medicine-based treatment strategies provides an obvious pathway for reducing patient morbidity and mortality. We aimed to leverage deep learning to create, through training on structured electronic health-care data, a multilabel deep neural network to predict surgical postoperative complications that would outperform available models in surgical risk prediction.Methods In this retrospective study, we used data on 58 input features, including demographics, laboratory values, and 30-day postoperative complications, from the American College of Surgeons (ACS) National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database, which collects data from 722 hospitals from around 15 countries. We queried the entire adult (≥18 years) database for patients who had surgery between Jan 1, 2012, and Dec 31, 2018. We then identified all patients who were treated at a large midwestern US academic medical centre, excluded them from the base dataset, and reserved this independent group for final model testing. We then randomly created a training set and a validation set from the remaining cases. We developed three deep neural network models with increasing numbers of input variables and so increasing levels of complexity. Output variables comprised mortality and 18 different postoperative complications. Overall morbidity was defined as any of 16 postoperative complications. Model performance was evaluated on the test set using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared with previous metrics from the ACS-Surgical Risk Calculator (ACS-SRC). We evaluated resistance to changes in the underlying patient population on a subset of the test set, comprising only patients who had emergency surgery. Results were also compared with the Predictive OpTimal Trees in Emergency Surgery Risk (POTTER) calculator. Findings 5 881 881 surgical patients, with 2941 unique Current Procedural Terminology codes, were included in this study, with 4 694 488 in the training set, 1 173 622 in the validation set, and 13 771 in the test set. The mean AUCs for the validation set were 0•864 (SD 0•053) for model 1, 0•871 (0•055) for model 2, and 0•882 (0•053) for model 3. The mean AUCs for the test set were 0•859 (SD 0•063) for model 1, 0•863 (0•064) for model 2, and 0•874 (0•061) for model 3. The mean AUCs of each model outperformed previously published performance metrics from the ACS-SRC, with a direct correlation between increasing model complexity and performance. Additionally, when tested on a subgroup of patients who had emergency surgery, our models outperformed previously published POTTER metrics. Interpretation We have developed unified prediction models, based on deep ...

Background Postoperative complications continue to constitute a major issue for both the healthcare system and the individual patient and are associated with inferior outcomes and higher healthcare costs. The objective of this study was to evaluate the trends of postoperative complication rates over a 7-year period. Methods The NSQIP datasets from 2012 to 2018 were used to assess 30-day complication incidence rates including mortality rate following surgical procedures within ten surgical subspecialties. Multivariable logistic regression was used to associate complication rates with dataset year, while adjusting for relevant confounders. Results A total of 5,880,829 patients undergoing major surgery were included. Particularly the incidence rates of four complications were found to be decreasing: superficial SSI (1.9 to 1.3%), deep SSI (0.6 to 0.4%), urinary tract infection (1.6 to 1.2%) and patient unplanned return to the operating room (3.1 to 2.7%). Incidence rate for organ/space SSI exhibited an increase (1.1 to 1.5%). When adjusted, regression analyses indicated decreased odds ratios (OR) through the study period years for particularly deep SSI OR 0.92 [0.92–0.93], superficial SSI OR 0.94 [0.94–0.94] and acute renal failure OR 0.96 [0.95–0.96] as the predictor variable (study year) increased (p < 0.01). However, OR’s for organ/space SSI 1.05 [1.05–1.06], myocardial infarction 1.01 [1.01–1.02] and sepsis 1.01 [1.01–1.02] increased slightly over time (all p < 0.01). Conclusions Incidence rates for the complications exhibited a stable trend over the study period, with minor in or decreases observed.