Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are extreme climatic events in oceanic systems that can have devastating impacts on ecosystems, causing abrupt ecological changes and socioeconomic consequences. Several prominent MHWs have attracted scientific and public interest, and recent assessments have documented global and regional increases in their frequency. However, for proactive marine management, it is critical to understand how patterns might change in the future. Here, we estimate future changes in MHWs to the end of the 21st century, as simulated by the CMIP5 global climate model projections. Significant increases in MHW intensity and count of annual MHW days are projected to accelerate, with many parts of the ocean reaching a near-permanent MHW state by the late 21st century. The two greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios considered (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 and 8.5) strongly affect the projected intensity of MHW events, the proportion of the globe exposed to permanent MHW states, and the occurrence of the most extreme MHW events. Comparison with simulations of a natural world, without anthropogenic forcing, indicate that these trends have emerged from the expected range of natural variability within the first half of the 21st century. This discrepancy implies a degree of "anthropogenic emergence," with a departure from the natural MHW conditions that have previously shaped marine ecosystems for centuries or even millennia. Based on these projections we expect impacts on marine ecosystems to be widespread, significant and persistent through the 21st century.

Ocean temperature variability is a fundamental component of the Earth's climate system, and extremes in this variability affect the health of marine ecosystems around the world. The study of marine heatwaves has emerged as a rapidly growing field of research, given notable extreme warm-water events that have occurred against a background trend of global ocean warming. This review summarizes the latest physical and statistical understanding of marine heatwaves based on how they are identified, defined, characterized, and monitored through remotely sensed and in situ data sets. We describe the physical mechanisms that cause marine heatwaves, along with their global distribution, variability, and trends. Finally, we discuss current issues in this developing research area, including considerations related to the choice of climatological baseline periods in defining extremes and how to communicate findings in the context of societal needs. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 13 is January 4, 2021. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The impacts of marine heatwaves Extreme warming events in the world’s oceans are becoming more widespread and frequent; 8 of the 10 most severe recorded events have taken place in the past decade. Smith et al . review how these marine heatwaves are severely altering ecosystem service provision, with widespread socioeconomic impacts. Heatwave effects, including range shifts and mass mortality of marine species and harmful algal blooms, have knock-on economic consequences that already run into billions of US dollars. As well as reviewing the impacts of these events, the authors discuss the mitigation and adaptation measures that are needed to alleviate the risks and damaging impacts. —AMS

Climatic extremes are becoming increasingly common against a background trend of global warming. In the oceans, marine heatwaves (MHWs)—discrete periods of anomalously warm water—have intensified and become more frequent over the past century, impacting the integrity of marine ecosystems globally. We review and synthesize current understanding of MHW impacts at the individual, population, and community levels. We then examine how these impacts affect broader ecosystem services and discuss the current state of research on biological impacts of MHWs. Finally, we explore current and emergent approaches to predicting the occurrence and impacts of future events, along with adaptation and management approaches. With further increases in intensity and frequency projected for coming decades, MHWs are emerging as pervasive stressors to marine ecosystems globally. A deeper mechanistic understanding of their biological impacts is needed to better predict and adapt to increased MHW activity in the Anthropocene. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Marine Science, Volume 15 is January 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The benefits of the 1987 Montreal Protocol in reducing chlorofluorocarbon emissions, repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, shielding incoming UV radiation, reducing the incidence of skin cancer and mitigating negative ecosystem effects are all well documented. Projected future climate impacts have also been described, mainly focused on a reduced impact of the mid-latitude jet as the ozone hole gradually repairs. However, there is little appreciation of the surface warming that has been avoided as a result of the Montreal Protocol, despite CFCs being potent greenhouse gases. Instead, the issue of ozone depletion and climate change are often thought of as two distinct problems, even though both ozone and CFCs impact Earth's radiation budget. Here we show that a substantial amount of warming has been avoided because of the Montreal Protocol, even after factoring in the surface cooling associated with stratospheric ozone depletion. As of today, as much as 1.1°C warming has been avoided over parts of the Arctic. Future climate benefits are even stronger, with 3°C-4°C Arctic warming and ∼1°C global average warming avoided by 2050; corresponding to a ∼25% mitigation of global warming. The Montreal Protocol has thus not only been a major success in repairing the stratospheric ozone hole, it has also achieved substantial mitigation of anthropogenic climate change both today and into the future.

Ocean boundary current systems are key components of the climate system, are home to highly productive ecosystems, and have numerous societal impacts. Establishment of a global network of boundary current observing systems is a critical part of ongoing development of the Global Ocean Observing System. The characteristics of boundary current systems are reviewed, focusing on scientific and societal motivations for sustained observing. Techniques currently used to observe boundary current systems are reviewed, followed by a census of the current state of boundary current observing systems globally. The next steps in the development of boundary current observing systems are considered, leading to several specific recommendations.

Thermodynamic arguments imply that global mean rainfall increases in a warmer atmosphere; however, dynamical effects may result in more significant diversity of regional precipitation change. Here we investigate rainfall changes in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma), a time when temperatures were 2-3ºC warmer than the pre-industrial era, using output from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Projects phases 1 and 2 and sensitivity climate model experiments. In the Mid-Pliocene simulations, the higher rates of warming in the northern hemisphere create an interhemispheric temperature gradient that enhances the southward cross-equatorial energy flux by up to 48%. This intensified energy flux reorganizes the atmospheric circulation leading to a northward shift of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone and a weakened and poleward displaced Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Convergences Zones. These changes result in drier-than-normal Southern Hemisphere tropics and subtropics. The evaluation of the mid-Pliocene adds a constraint to possible future warmer scenarios associated with differing rates of warming between hemispheres. The Earth has experienced many periods in which climate was warmer than present. Understanding atmospheric circulation and precipitation during past warm climates is useful to produce constraints on possible future changes. Here we analyse the Southern Hemisphere large-scale rainfall response in the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (~ 3 Ma mPWP; hereafter referred as mid-Pliocene). During this period high-latitude Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) were as high as + 9 °C and + 4 °C in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere, respectively 1 , compared to pre-industrial times (~ 1850 Common Era [C.E.]; Fig. 1). In addition, the Greenland ice sheet had 50-70% 2-4 less mass and the western Antarctica was ice-free 5,6. Atmospheric CO 2 concentrations were similar to today 7 (~ 400 ppm). Although the extent of the ice sheets for the end of the twenty-first century is still a topic of debate, especially due to model's limitations in simulating land-ice processes 8,9 , the mid-Pliocene is considered a useful analogue for the end-of-century climate 10. Rainfall proxy archives do not exist for the tropics and Southern Hemisphere subtropics in the mid-Pliocene. However, paleo reconstructions of ice sheets, SSTs, vegetation distribution, soils and lakes performed by the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) project 1 are available to force climate models 4,12

Modes of climate variability can drive significant changes to regional climate affecting extremes such as droughts, floods and bushfires. The need to forecast these extremes and expected future increases in their intensity and frequency motivates a need to better understand the physical processes that connect climate modes to regional precipitation. Focusing on east Australia, where precipitation is driven by multiple interacting climate modes, this study provides a new perspective into the links between large-scale modes of climate variability and precipitation. Using a Lagrangian back-trajectory approach, we examine how the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modifies the supply of evaporative moisture for precipitation, and how this is modulated by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and Southern Annular Mode (SAM). We demonstrate that La Niña modifies large-scale moisture transport together with local thermodynamic changes to facilitate local precipitation generation, whereas below average precipitation during El Niño stems predominantly from increased regional subsidence. These dynamic-thermodynamic processes were often more pronounced during co-occurring La Niña/negative IOD and El Niño/positive IOD periods. As the SAM is less strongly correlated with ENSO, the impact of co-occurring ENSO and SAM largely depended on the state of ENSO. La Niña-related processes were exacerbated when combined with +SAM and dampened when combined with -SAM, and vice versa during El Niño. This new perspective on how interacting climate modes physically influence regional precipitation can help elucidate how model biases affect the simulation of Australian climate, facilitating model improvement and understanding of regional impacts from long-term changes in these modes.