This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to + 9 degrees C) and precipitation (-50 to + 50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model developmen

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2Consiglio per la ricerca in agricoltura e l'analisi dell'economia agraria (CREA) -Unit a di ricerca per le produzioni legnose fuori foresta (PFL), St. Frassineto Po, 35, 15033 Casale Monferrato (AL), Italy Abstract A wealth of data and information on the cultivation of perennial biomass crops has been collected, but direct comparisons between herbaceous and woody crops are rare. The main objective of this research was to compare the biomass yield, the energy balance and the biomass quality of six perennial bioenergy crops: Populus spp., Robinia pseudoacacia, Salix spp., Arundo donax, Miscanthus 9 giganteus, and Panicum virgatum, grown in two marginal environments. For giant reed and switchgrass, two levels of nitrogen fertilization were applied annually (0-100 kg ha À1 ). Nitrogen fertilization did not affect biomass or energy production of giant reed; thus, it significantly reduced the energy return on investment (EROI) (from 73 to 27). In switchgrass, nitrogen fertilization significantly increased biomass production and the capacity of this crop to respond to water availability, making it a favorable option when only biomass production is a target. Net energy gain (NEG) was higher for herbaceous crops than for woody crops. In Casale, EROI calculated for poplar and willow (7, on average) was significantly lower than that of the other crops (14, on average). In Gariga, the highest EROI was calculated for miscanthus (98), followed by nonfertilized giant reed and switchgrass (82 and 73, respectively). Growing degree days 10 during the cropping season had no effect on biomass production in any of the studied species, although water availability from May to August was a major factor affecting biomass yield in herbaceous crops. Overall, herbaceous crops had the highest ranking for bioenergy production due to their high biomass yield, high net energy gain (NEG), and biomass quality that renders them suitable to both biochemical and thermochemical conversion. Miscanthus in particular had the highest EROI in both locations (16 and 98, in Casale and Gariga), while giant reed had the highest NEG on the silty-loam soil of Gariga.

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