We present an early version of a Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Recovered–Deceased (SEIRD) mathematical model based on partial differential equations coupled with a heterogeneous diffusion model. The model describes the spatio-temporal spread of the COVID-19 pandemic, and aims to capture dynamics also based on human habits and geographical features. To test the model, we compare the outputs generated by a finite-element solver with measured data over the Italian region of Lombardy, which has been heavily impacted by this crisis between February and April 2020. Our results show a strong qualitative agreement between the simulated forecast of the spatio-temporal COVID-19 spread in Lombardy and epidemiological data collected at the municipality level. Additional simulations exploring alternative scenarios for the relaxation of lockdown restrictions suggest that reopening strategies should account for local population densities and the specific dynamics of the contagion. Thus, we argue that data-driven simulations of our model could ultimately inform health authorities to design effective pandemic-arresting measures and anticipate the geographical allocation of crucial medical resources.

The outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020 has led to a surge in interest in the research of the mathematical modeling of epidemics. Many of the introduced models are so-called compartmental models, in which the total quantities characterizing a certain system may be decomposed into two (or more) species that are distributed into two (or more) homogeneous units called compartments. We propose herein a formulation of compartmental models based on partial differential equations (PDEs) based on concepts familiar to continuum mechanics, interpreting such models in terms of fundamental equations of balance and compatibility, joined by a constitutive relation. We believe that such an interpretation may be useful to aid understanding and interdisciplinary collaboration. We then proceed to focus on a compartmental PDE model of COVID-19 within the newly-introduced framework, beginning with a detailed derivation and explanation. We then analyze the model mathematically, presenting several results concerning its stability and sensitivity to different parameters. We conclude with a series of numerical simulations to support our findings.

No abstract

A novel approach which combines isogeometric collocation and an equilibriumbased stress recovery technique is applied to analyze laminated composite plates. Isogeometric collocation is an appealing strong form alternative to standard Galerkin approaches, able to achieve high order convergence rates coupled with a significantly reduced computational cost. Laminated composite plates are herein conveniently modeled considering only one element through the thickness with homogenized material properties. This guarantees accurate results in terms of displacements and in-plane stress components.To recover an accurate out-of-plane stress state, equilibrium is imposed in strong form as a post-processing correction step, which requires the shape functions to be highly continuous. This continuity demand is fully by isogeometric analysis properties, and excellent results are obtained using a minimal number of collocation points per direction, particularly for increasing values of length-to-thickness plate ratio and number of layers.

Measurements were taken on the septal ultrastructure of 13 species of basidiomycete fungi from eight different orders. A continuum of dolipore size was found as opposed to the two size-types previously proposed. A cluster analysis was carried out on the measurements to suggest relationships between the species. Based on this and other published information on dolipores, possible evolutionary trends in the ultrastructure of the dolipore are discussed.