In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable development of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.
The article presents a study of implementations of information technologies for energy saving. The study provides an analysis of cloud platforms used in the energy sector. Most platforms are used to increase equipment load factors, diagnose it, or integrate the energy infrastructure of individual systems into large systems. The article discusses the role of man in the process of improving energy efficiency. As a result of the research, it is found that the user’s connection to energy saving will act as a significant motivation. The proposed cloud platform focused on the personalization of energy actions will create the prerequisites for the formation of a smart consumer. The article describes the structure and functionality of the system. As a result of the platform implementation, the user will be able not only to reduce his bills for energy, but to see the real effect of his actions in the overall balance.
The 21st century is characterized not only by large-scale transformations but also by the speed with which they occur. Transformations—political, economic, social, technological, environmental, and legal-in synergy have always been a catalyst for reactions in society. The field of energy supply, like many others, is extremely susceptible to the external influence of such factors. To a large extent, this applies to remote (especially from the position of energy supply) regions. The authors outline an approach to justifying the development of the Arctic energy infrastructure through an analysis of the demand for the amount of energy consumed and energy sources, taking into account global trends. The methodology is based on scenario modeling of technological demand. It is based on a study of the specific needs of consumers, available technologies, and identified risks. The paper proposes development scenarios and presents a model that takes them into account. Modeling results show that in all scenarios, up to 50% of the energy balance in 2035 will take gas, but the role of carbon-free energy sources will increase. The mathematical model allowed forecasting the demand for energy types by certain types of consumers, which makes it possible to determine the vector of development and stimulation of certain types of resources for energy production in the Arctic. The model enables considering not only the growth but also the decline in demand for certain types of consumers under different scenarios. In addition, authors’ forecasts, through further modernization of the energy sector in the Arctic region, can contribute to the creation of prerequisites that will be stimulating and profitable for the growth of investment in sustainable energy sources to supply consumers. The scientific significance of the work lies in the application of a consistent hybrid modeling approach to forecasting demand for energy resources in the Arctic region. The results of the study are useful in drafting a scenario of regional development, taking into account the Sustainable Development Goals, as well as identifying areas of technology and energy infrastructure stimulation.
Among the most widespread systems in industrial plants are automated drive systems, the key and most common element of which is the induction motor. In view of challenging operating conditions of equipment, the task of fault detection based on the analysis of electrical parameters is relevant. The authors propose the identification of patterns characterizing the occurrence and development of the bearing defect by the singular analysis method as applied to the stator current signature. As a result of the decomposition, the time series of the three-phase current are represented by singular triples ordered by decreasing contribution, which are reconstructed into the form of time series for subsequent analysis using a Hankelization of matrices. Experimental studies with bearing damage imitation made it possible to establish the relationship between the changes in the contribution of the reconstructed time series and the presence of different levels of bearing defects. By using the contribution level and tracking the movement of the specific time series, it became possible to observe both the appearance of new components in the current signal and the changes in the contribution of the components corresponding to the defect to the overall structure. The authors verified the clustering results based on a visual assessment of the component matrices’ structure similarity using scattergrams and hierarchical clustering. The reconstruction of the time series from the results of the component grouping allows the use of these components for the subsequent prediction of faults development in electric motors.
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