A subsidy is subject to an export share requirement (ESR) when firms must export more than a certain share of their output to receive it. Such incentives are frequently found in free trade zones, export processing regimes and measures targeted at foreign investors, both in China and other developing countries. In this paper we provide the first quantitative assessment of the effect that using subsidies with ESR has on exports, the intensity of competition and welfare, both in the enacting country and its trading partners, using a two-country model of trade with heterogeneous firms. We find that the subsidy with ESR boosts exports more than an equivalent unconditional subsidy available to all exporters. Crucially, the subsidy with ESR provides greater protection to low-profitability firms, while the unconditional subsidy does the opposite. The combination of export promotion and lower intensity of domestic competition generated by the subsidy with ESR can be described as "protectionism through exporting." The imposition of an ESR, however, greatly exacerbates the welfare loss associated with subsidizing exporters.

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This paper evaluates the impact of two export finance support schemes: The Export Finance Scheme (EFS) and the Long-Term Finance Facility for Plant & Machinery (LTFF) on firm-level export performance. These policies offer loans to exporters at concessionary interest rates to finance short-term working capital and long-term investment in machinery and equipment respectively. To do so, we combine customs data with information about which firms participate in each scheme and the value of the loans they obtain between 2015 and 2017. We find that EFS and LTFF increased the growth rate of exports sales by 7 and 8-11 percentage points respectively. Neither policy exerts a significant impact on the number of products that a firm exports or the number of foreign countries it sells to. Our analysis indicates that facilitating long-term investment in physical capital is more cost effective to raise exports than subsidizing exporters' working capital needs.

Special economic zones (SEZ), one of the most important instruments of industrial policy used in developing countries, often impose export share requirements (ESR). That is, firms located in SEZ are required to export more than a certain share of their output to enjoy a wide array of incentives—a practice prohibited by the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures. In this paper we exploit the staggered removal of ESR across products and over time in the SEZ of the Dominican Republic—a reform driven by external commitments to comply with WTO disciplines on subsidies—to evaluate how ESR affect export performance at the product and firm levels. Using customs data on international trade transactions from the period 2006 to 2014, we find that making the Dominican SEZ regime WTO‐compliant made SEZ more attractive locations for exporters to be based in. The reform, however, did not have a significant effect on the country's exports or on the share of export value originating from SEZ.

This paper studies the impact of a 'textbook' ad-valorem export subsidy on firm-level export performance. The Cash Incentive Scheme for Exports (CISE) program offered by the government of Nepal offers a cash subsidy to firms exporting a select group of products to countries other than India. Using customs transactions data combined with subsidy disbursements at the firm level from 2011 to 2014, we estimate the impact of the subsidy on exports of targeted and non-target product-destination combinations and their extensive and intensive margins. We employ a range of doubly-robust matching estimators to control for the non-random selection of exporters into the scheme. We find that subsidized firms increased their exports of targeted product-destinations relative to firms in the control group and that this rise is fully accounted for by the extensive margin: a higher number of targeted products exported and foreign markets served. We do not find any significant changes along the intensive margin nor among non-targeted product-destination combinations. While our results show that the CISE scheme fomented export diversification, its limited impact on total exports and high fiscal cost call into question its effectiveness.

This paper presents a simple model of subsidies with export share requirements (ESR) in a heterogeneous firm environment. A two-country general equilibrium version of the model with a single 100% ESR is calibrated using firm-level data from the 2002 wave of the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey collected by the World Bank for China. The calibrated model is used to gauge the change in subsidies with ESR that is consistent with the fall in the share of 'pure exporters', firms exporting all their output, observed in China, from 25.7% in 2002 to 11.1% in 2013. Our results indicate that a 6.9% reduction in the ad-valorem subsidy rate available to firms that export all their output is consistent with the observed fall in their share of exporting firms. Expenditure in subsidies (as a share of value-added) falls by 66% and welfare in China increases by 1.76% while real income in the rest of the world falls by 0.59%.

This paper examines whether credit constraints affect Chinese firms' absorption of productivity spillovers originating from the activity of foreign-owned firms. Using firm-level data for 2001-2005, we find evidence of positive spillovers originating from foreign-owned firms from countries other than Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan for non-state owned Chinese firms operating in the same industry and province. Using an index of external finance dependence to measure credit constraints, we find that only non state-owned firms operating in industries with external finance dependence below the index median exhibit significantly positive spillovers from the activity of foreign firms.