This paper contributes to the climate policy discussion by focusing on the challenges and opportunities of reaching net zero emissions by 2050 in Italy. To support Italian energy planning, we developed energy roadmaps towards national climate neutrality, consistent with the Paris Agreement objectives and the IPCC goal of limiting the increase in global surface temperature to 1.5 °C. Starting from the Italian framework, these scenarios identify the correlations among the main pillars for the change of the energy paradigm towards net emissions by 2050. The energy scenarios were developed using TIMES-RSE, a partial equilibrium and technology-rich optimization model of the entire Italian energy system. Subsequently, an in-depth analysis was developed with the sMTISIM, a long-term simulator of power system and electricity markets. The results show that, to achieve climate neutrality by 2050, the Italian energy system will have to experience profound transformations on multiple and strongly related dimensions. A predominantly renewable-based energy mix (at least 80–90% by 2050) is essential to decarbonize most of the final energy consumption. However, the strong increase of non-programmable renewable sources requires particular attention to new flexibility resources needed for the power system, such as Power-to-X. The green fuels produced from renewables via Power-to-X will be a vital energy source for those sectors where electrification faces technical and economic barriers. The paper’s findings also confirm that the European “energy efficiency first” principle represents the very first step on the road to climate neutrality.
The integration of larger and larger amounts of wind and solar power is a major target of the European Union. However adding renewable generation brings about a variable and only partly predictable source of power generation to a power system that has to balance generation and varying demand at all times. This represents a challenge for power system planning and operation. To this regard, different approaches (ranging from more conservative deterministic procedures to more refined probabilistic algorithms) have been proposed to assess the maximum penetration level of renewable sources (especially wind power) in power systems.The paper presents a procedure aimed at evaluating the maximum wind power which can be integrated in the Sardinian power system in relation to frequency stability issues, with different assumptions involving the regulation capability of wind farms at a 2020 scenario.Index Terms-security assessment, wind power, frequency control, dispatching
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