In this article, we analyse the determinants of Regulatory Quality-RQ for 193 countries in the period 2011-2020. We use a database from ESG-Environment Social Governance of the World Bank. We apply OLS, Panel Data with Fixed Effects and Panel Data with Random Effects. We found that the variables that have the most positive impact on RQ, among others, are “GHG Net Emission”, “Mean Drought Index”, and “Heat Index”. We also found that the variables that have the most negative impact on RQ are among others “Renewable Energy Consumption”, “Voice and Accountability” and “Rule of Law”. Furthermore, we have applied the k-Means algorithm optimized with the Elbow Method and we find the presence of five clusters. In adjunct, we confront eight machine learning algorithms to predict the value of RQ and we found that the best predictor is Polynomial Regression. The predictive level of RQ for the analysed countries is expected to diminish of -1,29%. In the end, we present a network analysis with the Euclidean distance and we found the presence of a structure of seven networks using augmented data. JEL Classification: D7, D70, D72, D73, D78.
In the following article, the value of the "Knowledge Intensive Services Exports in Europe" in 36 European countries is estimated. The data were analyzed through a set of econometric models or: Poled OLS, Dynamic Panel, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Panel Data with Random Effects, WLS. The results show that “Knowledge Intensive Services Exports” is negatively associated, among others, with "Buyer Sophistication", "Government Procurement of Advanced Technology Products", and positively associated with the following variables i.e. "Innovation Index", "Sales Impacts" and "Total Entrepreneurial Activity". Then a clusterization with k-Means algorithm was made with the Elbow method. The results show the presence of 3 clusters. A network analysis was later built and 4 complex network structures and three structures with simplified networks were detected. To predict the future trend of the variable, a comparison was made with eight different machine learning algorithms. The results show that prediction with Augmented Data-AD is more efficient than prediction with Original Data-AD with a reduction of the mean of statistical errors equal to 55,94%.
The following article analyzes the determinants of the innovation index in Europe. The data refer to the European Innovation Scoreboard-EIS of the European Commission for the period between 2010 and 2019 for 36 countries. The data are analyzed using the following econometric techniques: Panel Data with Random Effects, Panel Data with Fixed Effects, Dynamic Panel Data, Pooled OLS, WLS. The results show that the Innovation Index is negatively connected to some variables, among which the most significant are "GDP per capita", "R&D expenditure public sector", "Venture capital", "Tertiary education", and positively connected to some variables among which the most relevant are: "Government procurement of advanced technology products", "Average annual population growth", "Finance and support", "Human resources", "Marketing or organisational innovators", "Linkages". A clustering was then carried out using the unsupervised k-Means algorithm optimized with the Silhouette coefficient which shows the presence of 2 clusters per value of the Innovation Index. Eight machine learning algorithms has been used for prediction with real data. The Tree Ensemble Regression algorithm has been chosen as best performer. A further prediction has been made with the augmented data. The result shows that the best performing algorithm is Linear Regression with an innovation index value predicted to grow by approximately 3.38%.
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