Changing marine temperatures modify the distributional ranges of natural populations, but the success of invasion of new areas depends on local physical and ecological conditions. We explore the invasion by thermophilic species and their ecosystem effects by simulating a sea surface temperature (SST) increase using a trophodynamic model for the northern Adriatic Sea (NAS), in which thermal and trophic niches are explicitly represented for each thermophilic non-indigenous species (NIS) and native species. The NAS acts as a cul-de-sac for local species, preventing a further poleward migration as a response to temperature rise. In this situation, model results showed that effects of warming and invasion produced complex, non-linear changes on biomasses but never resulted in a complete overturn of a group of native species and/or a bloom of invasive ones. Despite this, the diversity index stabilizes at increased values after simulating invasion, possibly indicating that in such enclosed systems the establishment of invasive species could represent an enrichment in ecosystem structure. In addition, the absence of complete species substitution clearly showed the contribution of resident species toward increasing the resilience, i.e., the capability of the system to cope with invasion without changing substantially. Contrasting scenarios highlighted that changes in ecosystem primary production and species adaptation had secondary effects in ecosystem structure, while results for scenarios with different exploitation levels indicated that fishing can destabilize community structure in these change contexts, e.g., reducing community resilience. The results confirmed the importance of an ecological niche approach to analyze possible effects of invasion and highlighted the complexity of dynamics linked to temperature-driven species invasion', in terms of both the predicted strength of impacts and the direction of biomass change.

Within the context of global warming, the western coast of the northern Adriatic Sea can be regarded as an extremely vulnerable area. Owing to the local geographic features, this area has been described as the Venetian lacuna, where Mediterranean Sea climatic conditions are replaced by Atlantic Ocean ones, supporting the presence of glacial relicts, such as sprat Sprattus sprattus, flounder Platichthys flesus and brown shrimp Crangon crangon. Nektonic assemblage therefore represents a good candidate in terms of an early proxy for thermal regime alterations. It represents a dynamic component of the lagoon ecosystem, changing in space and time, actively moving through the entire system, and dynamically exchanging with the open sea. Here, the first signals of the change have been already detected, such as the presence of alien thermophilic species. Within this context, since the beginning of the century, sampling of the nektonic assemblage has been carried out, integrating them with landings data from the fish market. Vulnerabilities to thermal regime changes have been tested by (1) categorizing species according to the mean distribution area in terms of latitudinal range (over 45°, 30°-45° and below 30°), and (2) analysing both spatial and temporal variations within fishing grounds. Results indicated a high potential vulnerability of the artisanal fishery to climate change, as the commercial catch is entirely composed of species from cold (>45° N) and temperate (between 45° and 30° N) latitudes. At present no alien thermophilic species have been recorded within the lagoon, which is possibly a sign of good resilience of the assemblage. Finally, abundance of species from cold latitudes has decreased during the past decade. All of this has been discussed in the context of the mean annual temperature trend.

Since June 2010 the Italian government prohibited the trawling activity within three nautical miles from the coast or within the 50 m isobath. This decision was expected to have a great impact on trawl fishing activities, but at the moment no real assessment of the effects on catches and possible ecological implications has been undertaken. In order to fill this gap, an assessment on the North Western Adriatic Sea coast has been performed. Landings per Unit of Effort (kilograms per boat per day) for each trawling fleet segment have been analysed, by comparing on a monthly basis the before (2007-2009) and after ban (2011-2013) period. The comparison was carried out considering total landings and the six main species targeted inside the three miles area (sand smelt, cuttlefish, red mullet, sole, turbot, and mantis shrimp). Within a general reduction of total landings, a differential effect based on the analysed metiers was detected, with small trawlers being more negatively affected than the large and rapido ones, which showed, for some species, positive impacts. From an ecological point of view, though, no positive overall effects were detected, probably due to the fact that the adopted measure is not sufficient to reduce the overexploitation. In any case, all this is affecting the structure of the small-scale fishery in the area, since small trawlers are changing métier, moving towards the artisanal fishery, with deep impacts on the very coastal area that the trawling ban was designated to protect, compromising all possible benefit

Climate change is altering the functioning of ecosystems and species distribution worldwide, with negative impacts on human activities, including fisheries. The Adriatic Sea is an extremely productive area for fisheries, due to the strong outflow of nutrients from rivers and the periodic mixing of nutrients from the Mediterranean. However, the Adriatic Sea is also a semi-closed basin, where species do not have the ability to move to higher latitudes to avoid warming of the waters. Climate change acts on biodiversity in a variety of ways, such as causing changes in the trophic network—favoring the intake of thermophilic alien species, often in competition with local species—and altering the biological cycles of acclimatized marine species to temperate–cold climates. These problems become critical factors for the survival of species and for fisheries relying on these resources. Within this context, to have estimates of possible modifications of the nektonic community in the near future could be quite useful for preparing adaptation plans. In this paper, using Maximum Entropy models under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, we estimated the future habitat suitability for a set of marine nektonic species of different thermal affinity (e.g., cold, temperate and warm species) within GSA17 (Northern and Central Adriatic Sea), among the most productive—and most exploited—areas of the Mediterranean Sea. This study shows how, at the current pace, climate change could modify marine ecosystems to the extent that future habitat suitability will decrease for nearly half of the species considered, with a decrease in landings from 13.5 to 86.9%, depending on the scenario. Only for the blue crab Callinectes sapidus has an increase in habitat suitability been observed. For most of the species considered, temperature was the most important variable to explain the probability of relative presence within the GSA17. On the other hand, GSA17 climatic conditions in the near future under the tested scenarios could become a suitable environment for tropical species, which could find here a suitable habitat, at least in terms of thermal features. Results of the present study can help the management of fishery resources and local markets in the near future, providing information to predict changes in the composition of the aquatic community and draw up management plans that take into account the effects of climate change.

The marine recreational fishing (MRF) represents one of the most popular activities along the coasts of numerous countries around the world, in particular in the Mediterranean Sea. Despite the evidences of potential effects on the marine biodiversity and commercially exploited stocks, a sound information base and adequate management plans are still lacking, both at the national and basin level. An analysis of the MRF on the West coasts of the Adriatic Sea was carried out, in 2014, by using a standardized questionnaires approach, aiming to describe the state of the art and to preliminarily assess catches, in comparison with the commercial ones, at the regional scale. Gilt-headed seabream, European seabass, cuttlefish, squid and Atlantic bluefin tuna resulted the anglers' preferred species, even if the top five in term of caught biomass were bluefin tuna, seabream, cuttlefish, common dolphinfish and little tunny, in the order (accounting up to 60% of total catches). The exploitation level resulted to be significant, as confirmed by the comparison with commercial fisheries, being the MRF captures 30% or 45% of the artisanal fishery in the same area, with some species, such as bluefish, bonito, pandora and picarel, showing larger values. The preliminary assessment of ecological effects, highlighted that the exploitation use about 10%-16% of energy fixed by the primary production (Primary Production Required to sustain fishery), but the ecosystem effects are still sustainable (Lindex and probability to be sustainable fished). However, combining catches by MRF with those by small scale fishery completely changes the situation, showing an unsustainable condition, suggesting the need for taking into the account also MRF in the future management planning for the Adriatic coastal area