The stylized facts of macroeconomic time series can be presented by fitting structural time series models. Within this framework, we analyse the consequences of the widely used detrending technique popularised by Hodrick and Prescott (1980). It is shown that mechanical detrending based on the Hodrick–Prescott filter can lead investigators to report spurious cyclical behaviour, and this point is illustrated with empirical examples. Structural time‐series models also allow investigators to deal explicitly with seasonal and irregular movements that may distort estimated cyclical components. Finally, the structural framework provides a basis for exposing the limitations of ARIMA methodology and models based on a deterministic trend with a single break.

The kinetics of alpha and beta amanitin were studied in 45 patients intoxicated with Amanita Phalloides. The amatoxins were analyzed by high performance liquid chromatography in plasma (43 cases), urine (35 cases), gastroduodenal fluid (12 cases), feces (12 cases) and tissues (4 cases). All patients had gastrointestinal symptoms and 43 developed an acute hepatitis. Two patients underwent successful liver transplantation. Eight patients, of whom three were children, died. The detection of amatoxins in the biological fluids was time dependent. The first sample was obtained at an average of 37.9 h post ingestion in the patients with positive results and at 70.6 h in the samples without detectable amatoxins. Plasma amatoxins were detected in 11 cases at 8 to 190 ng/mL for alpha and between 23.5 to 162 ng/mL for beta. In 23 cases amatoxins were detected in urine with a mean excretion per hour of 32.18 micrograms for alpha and 80.15 micrograms for beta. In 10 patients the total amounts eliminated in the feces (time variable) ranged between 8.4 and 152 micrograms for alpha amanitin and between 4.2 and 6270 micrograms for beta amanitin. In three of four cases amatoxins were still present in the liver and the kidney after day 5. Amatoxins were usually detectable in plasma before 36 h but were present in the urine until day 4. The rapid clearance indicates that enhanced elimination of amatoxins requires early treatment. Clearance of circulating amatoxins by day 4 spares the transplanted liver.

for secretarial aid, and Yvonne Liem for help on the bibliography. David Driscoll of the External Relations Department edited the study for publication and coordinated its production.The study was originally prepared for a seminar of the Executive Board of the Fund. In the seminar, Executive Directors expressed a wide range of views with regard to the appropriate approach to pension reform and the pertinence of the analysis and recommendations presented in this study. The present version reflects comments and suggestions made by a number of Executive Directors. However, the study should be taken as expressing solely the views of the authors and not those of the Executive Directors or the Fund.

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