Summaryobjective To estimate the rates of mortality in patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) from a large urban public sector HIV clinic in South Africa.methods We compared vital status using the clinic's database to vital status verified against the Vital Registration system at the South African Department of Home Affairs. We compared rates of mortality before and after updating mortality data. Predictors of mortality were estimated using Kaplan-Meier curves and proportional hazard regression.results Of the 7097 total patients who initiated highly active antiretroviral therapy at Themba Lethu Clinic by October 1st, 2008 and had an ID number, 6205 were included. 2453 patients (21%) were LTFU, of whom 1037 (42.3%) could be included in the analysis. After matching to the vital registration system, mortality more than doubled from 4.2% (258 ⁄ 6205) to 10.9% (676 ⁄ 6205). Overall 37% of those LTFU died by life-table analysis the probability of survival amongst those LTFU was 69% (95% CI: 66-72%), 64% (95% CI: 61-67%) and 59% (95% CI: 55-62%) by years 1, 2 and 3 since being lost, respectively. Those at highest risk of death after being lost were patients with a history of tuberculosis, CD4 count < 100 cells ⁄ ll, BMI < 17.5, haemoglobin < 10 and on <6 months of treatment.

Objective In April 2010 the South African government added Tenofovir disoproxil fumarate to its first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV patients. We analyzed the relationship between renal dysfunction at tenofovir initiation, nephrotoxicity and mortality. Design Retrospective cohort analysis of HIV-infected adults who received tenofovir and had a creatinine clearance done at initiation at the Themba Lethu Clinic, Johannesburg, South Africa between April 2004-September 2009. Methods We estimated the relationship between renal dysfunction, nephrotoxicity [any decline in kidney function from baseline (acute or chronic) that is secondary to a toxin (including drugs)] and mortality for patients initiated on tenofovir-containing regimens using marginal structural models and inverse probability of treatment weights to correct estimates for lost to follow-up and confounding. Results Of 890 patients initiated on tenofovir, 573 (64.4%) had normal renal function (>90ml/min), 271 (30.4%) had mild renal dysfunction (60-89ml/min) and 46 (5.2%) had moderate renal dysfunction (30-59ml/min). 2.4% experienced nephrotoxicity, 7.8% died and 9.7% were lost during 48-months of follow-up. Patients with mild (HR 4.8; 95%CI: 1.5-15.2) or moderate (HR 15.0; 95%CI: 3.4-66.5) renal dysfunction were at greatest risk of nephrotoxicty, while those with mild (HR 1.2; 95%CI: 0.7-2.3) or moderate (HR 3.2; 95%CI: 1.3-7.8) renal dysfunction vs. normal renal function were at highest risk of death by 48-months. Conclusion Much of the incident renal dysfunction in tenofovir patients is likely related to pre-existing renal pathology, which may be exacerbated by tenofovir. With expanded use of tenofovir, screening for renal dysfunction prior to initiation and dose adjustment is necessary to help improve ART outcomes.

South Africa faces an epidemic of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), yet national surveillance is limited due to the lack of recent data. We used data from the first comprehensive national survey on NCDs—the South African National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (SANHANES-1 (2011–2012))—to evaluate the prevalence of and health system response to diabetes through a diabetes care cascade. We defined diabetes as a Hemoglobin A1c equal to or above 6.5% or currently on treatment for diabetes. We constructed a diabetes care cascade by categorizing the population with diabetes into those who were unscreened, screened but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, treated but uncontrolled, and treated and controlled. We then used multivariable logistic regression models to explore factors associated with diagnosed and undiagnosed diabetes. The age-standardized prevalence of diabetes in South Africans aged 15+ was 10.1%. Prevalence rates were higher among the non-white population and among women. Among individuals with diabetes, a total of 45.4% were unscreened, 14.7% were screened but undiagnosed, 2.3% were diagnosed but untreated, 18.1% were treated but uncontrolled, and 19.4% were treated and controlled, suggesting that 80.6% of the diabetic population had unmet need for care. The diabetes care cascade revealed significant losses from lack of screening, between screening and diagnosis, and between treatment and control. These results point to significant unmet need for diabetes care in South Africa. Additionally, this analysis provides a benchmark for evaluating efforts to manage the rising burden of diabetes in South Africa.

Lawrence Long and colleagues report that “down-referring” stable HIV patients from a doctor-managed, hospital-based ART clinic to a nurse-managed primary health facility provides good health outcomes and cost-effective treatment for patients.

We show a consistent increase risk of mortality for HEU vs. HUU infants and children. Longitudinal research is needed to elucidate underlying mechanisms, such as maternal and infant health status and breast feeding practices, which may help explain these differences in mortality.

Background A mobile HIV counseling and testing (HCT) program around Johannesburg piloted the integration of point-of-care CD4 testing, using the Pima™ Analyzer, to improve linkages to HIV care. We report results from this pilot program for patients testing positive (n=508) from May–October 2010. Methods We analyzed three primary outcomes: assignment to testing group (offered POC CD4 or not; successful follow up (by phone); and completed the referral visit for HIV care within 8 weeks after HIV testing if successfully followed up. Proportions for each outcome were calculated and relative risks estimated using a modified Poisson approach. Results 311 patients were offered the POC CD4 test, and 197 patients were not offered the test. No differences in patient characteristics were observed between the two groups. Approximately 62.7% of patients were successfully followed up 8 weeks after HIV testing, with no differences observed between testing groups. Among those followed up, 54.4% reported completing their referral visit. Patients offered the POC CD4 test were more likely to complete the referral visit for further HIV care (RR 1.25, 95% CI: 1.00–1.57). Conclusions In this mobile HCT setting, patients offered POC CD4 testing as part of the HCT services were more likely to visit a referral clinic after testing, suggesting rapid CD4 testing technology may improve linkage to HIV care. Future research can evaluate options for adjusting HCT services if POC CD4 testing were included permanently, as well as the cost-effectiveness of the POC CD4 testing compared to other approaches for improving linkage of care.

The Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort was established in 2004 to allow large patient-level analyses from a single HIV treatment site to evaluate National Treatment Guidelines, answer questions of national and international policy relevance and to combine an economic and epidemiologic focus on HIV research. The current objectives of the Themba Lethu Clinical Cohort analyses are to: (i) provide cohort-level information on the outcomes of HIV treatment; (ii) evaluate aspects of HIV care and treatment that have policy relevance; (iii) evaluate the cost and cost-effectiveness of different approaches to HIV care and treatment; and (iv) provide a platform for studies on improving HIV care and treatment. Since 2004, Themba Lethu Clinic has enrolled approximately 30,000 HIV-positive patients into its HIV care and treatment programme, over 21,000 of whom have received anti-retroviral therapy since being enrolled. Patients on treatment are typically seen at least every 3 months with laboratory monitoring every 6 months to 1 year. The data collected include demographics, clinical visit data, laboratory data, medication history and clinical diagnoses. Requests for collaborations on analyses can be submitted to our data centre.

BackgroundOne of the key risk factors for cardiovascular disease is hypertension. Hypertension, which leads to heart attacks and strokes, already affects one billion people worldwide, making it a global public health issue. Incidence and prevalence of the condition is on the rise in low- and middle-income countries, with the biggest increase in sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa at the forefront. We examined the prevalence, incidence, predictors, treatment, and control of hypertension among HIV-positive patients on ART in a large South African observational cohort.MethodsWe conducted a prospective study of ART naïve adults initiating ART at a public sector HIV clinic in South Africa between April 2004–2017. Patients with diagnosed hypertension at ART initiation were excluded from the incidence analysis. Log-binomial regression was used to estimate predictors of hypertension at ART initiation, while competing risks regression was used to evaluate the relationship between predictors of incident hypertension, accounting for death as a competing risk.ResultsAmong 77,696 eligible patients, 22.0% had prevalent hypertension at ART initiation. Of the remaining patients with no hypertension at ART initiation, 8,125 incident hypertension cases were diagnosed over the period of follow-up, corresponding to an incident rate of 5.4 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 5.3–5.6). We found patients ≥40 years of age and patients with a body mass index (BMI) ≥25kg/m2 were at increased risk of both prevalent and incident hypertension. Male patients and those with pre-hypertension at ART initiation had increased hazards of hypertension over the period of follow-up. When assessing the choice of antiretroviral drug in first-line ART, patients initiated on nevirapine were at 27% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to those initiated on efavirenz, while patients who initiated on either zidovudine or stavudine had a 40% increased risk of developing hypertension compared to patients initiated on tenofovir. Patientswith poorer health status at ART initiation (i.e. WHO III/IV stage, low CD4 count, low hemoglobin levels and low BMI) had a decrease risk of prevalent hypertension. We found an inverse relationship in patients with a CD4 count <50 cells/mm3 at ART initiation who had a 25% increased risk of incident hypertension compared to those with a CD4 count ≥350 cells/mm3.ConclusionOver 20% of patients in our cohort had hypertension at ART initiation, and 13% of those with normal blood pressure at ART initiation developed hypertension while on ART. Older patients, males, those on nevirapine, zidovudine or stavudine, and those who are overweight/obese should be targeted for frequent blood pressure monitoring and the identification of other cardiovascular risk factors to encourage lifestyle modifications. Additionally, these groups should be offered pharmaceutical therapy to help prevent myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and kidney disease. Further research is needed to determine the level of access a...