Since the 1920s, population geneticists have had measures that describe how genetic variation is distributed spatially within a species' geographical range. Modern genetic survey techniques frequently yield information on the evolutionary relationships among the alleles or haplotypes as well as information on allele frequencies and their spatial distributions. This evolutionary information is often expressed in the form of an estimated haplotype or allele tree. Traditional statistics of population structure, such as F statistics, do not make use of evolutionary genealogical information, so it is necessary to develop new statistical estimators and tests that explicitly incorporate information from the haplotype tree. One such technique is to use the haplotype tree to define a nested series of branches (clades), thereby allowing an evolutionary nested analysis of the spatial distribution of genetic variation. Such a nested analysis can be performed regarding the geographical sampling locations either as categorical or continuous variables (i.e. some measure of spatial distance). It is shown that such nested phylogeographical analyses have more power to detect geographical associations than traditional, nonhistorical analyses and, as a consequence, allow a broader range of gene-flow parameters to be estimated in a precise fashion. More importantly, such nested analyses can discriminate between phylogeographical associations due to recurrent but restricted gene flow vs. historical events operating at the population level (e.g. past fragmentation, colonization, or range expansion events). Restricted gene flow and historical events can be intertwined, and the cladistic analyses can reconstruct their temporal juxtapositions, thereby yielding great insight into both the evolutionary history and population structure of the species. Examples are given that illustrate these properties, concentrating on the detection of range expansion events.

Nested clade phylogeographical analysis (NCPA) has become a common tool in intraspecific phylogeography. To evaluate the validity of its inferences, NCPA was applied to actual data sets with 150 strong a priori expectations, the majority of which had not been analysed previously by NCPA. NCPA did well overall, but it sometimes failed to detect an expected event and less commonly resulted in a false positive. An examination of these errors suggested some alterations in the NCPA inference key, and these modifications reduce the incidence of false positives at the cost of a slight reduction in power. Moreover, NCPA does equally well in inferring events regardless of the presence or absence of other, unrelated events. A reanalysis of some recent computer simulations that are seemingly discordant with these results revealed that NCPA performed appropriately in these simulated samples and was not prone to a high rate of false positives under sampling assumptions that typify real data sets. NCPA makes a posteriori use of an explicit inference key for biological interpretation after statistical hypothesis testing. Alternatives to NCPA that claim that biological inference emerges directly from statistical testing are shown in fact to use an a priori inference key, albeit implicitly. It is argued that the a priori and a posteriori approaches to intraspecific phylogeography are complementary, not contradictory. Finally, cross-validation using multiple DNA regions is shown to be a powerful method of minimizing inference errors. A likelihood ratio hypothesis testing framework has been developed that allows testing of phylogeographical hypotheses, extends NCPA to testing specific hypotheses not within the formal inference key (such as the out-of-Africa replacement hypothesis of recent human evolution) and integrates intra-and interspecific phylogeographical inference.

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The costs of inbreeding in natural populations of mammals are unknown despite their theoretical importance in genetic and sociobiological models and practical applications in conservation biology. A major cost of inbreeding is the reduced survival of inbred young. We estimate this cost from the regression of juvenile survival on the inbreeding coefficient using pedigrees of 40 captive mammalian populations belonging to 38 species.The number of lethal equivalents rangedfiom -1.4 to 30.3, with a mean of 4.6 and a median of 3.1. There was no significant difference between populations founded with wild-caught individuuIs, a mixture of wild-caught and captive-born individuals, and individuals of unknown origin. The average cost of aparent-offspring or full sibling mating was 0.33, that is, mortality was 33% higher in offspring of such matings than in offspring of unre/atedparents. This is likely to be an underestimate.

The publication of a haplotype tree of human mitochondrial DNA variation in 1987 provoked a controversy about the details of recent human evolution that continues to this day. Now many haplotype trees are available, and new analytical techniques exist for testing hypotheses about recent evolutionary history using haplotype trees. Here I present formal statistical analysis of human haplotype trees for mitochondrial DNA, Y-chromosomal DNA, two X-linked regions and six autosomal regions. A coherent picture of recent human evolution emerges with two major themes. First is the dominant role that Africa has played in shaping the modern human gene pool through at least two--not one--major expansions after the original range extension of Homo erectus out of Africa. Second is the ubiquity of genetic interchange between human populations, both in terms of recurrent gene flow constrained by geographical distance and of major population expansion events resulting in interbreeding, not replacement.

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We surveyed nine diallelic polymorphic sites on the Y chromosomes of 1,544 individuals from Africa, Asia, Europe, Oceania, and the New World. Phylogenetic analyses of these nine sites resulted in a tree for 10 distinct Y haplotypes with a coalescence time of approximately 150,000 years. The 10 haplotypes were unevenly distributed among human populations: 5 were restricted to a particular continent, 2 were shared between Africa and Europe, 1 was present only in the Old World, and 2 were found in all geographic regions surveyed. The ancestral haplotype was limited to African populations. Random permutation procedures revealed statistically significant patterns of geographical structuring of this paternal genetic variation. The results of a nested cladistic analysis indicated that these geographical associations arose through a combination of processes, including restricted, recurrent gene flow (isolation by distance) and range expansions. We inferred that one of the oldest events in the nested cladistic analysis was a range expansion out of Africa which resulted in the complete replacement of Y chromosomes throughout the Old World, a finding consistent with many versions of the Out of Africa Replacement Model. A second and more recent range expansion brought Asian Y chromosomes back to Africa without replacing the indigenous African male gene pool. Thus, the previously observed high levels of Y chromosomal genetic diversity in Africa may be due in part to bidirectional population movements. Finally, a comparison of our results with those from nested cladistic analyses of human mtDNA and beta-globin data revealed different patterns of inferences for males and females concerning the relative roles of population history (range expansions) and population structure (recurrent gene flow), thereby adding a new sex-specific component to models of human evolution.