No abstract

We propose a simple statistical approach for using Dispersal-Vicariance Analysis (DIVA) software to infer biogeographic histories without fully bifurcating trees. In this approach, ancestral ranges are first optimized for a sample of Bayesian trees. The probability P of an ancestral range r at a node is then calculated as P(r Y ) = n t=1 F(r Y ) t Pt where Y is a node, and F(r Y ) is the frequency of range r among all the optimal solutions resulting from DIVA optimization at node Y , t is one of n topologies optimized, and Pt is the probability of topology t. Node Y is a hypothesized ancestor shared by a specific crown lineage and the sister of that lineage "x", where x may vary due to phylogenetic uncertainty (polytomies and nodes with posterior probability <100%). Using this method, the ancestral distribution at Y can be estimated to provide inference of the geographic origins of the specific crown group of interest. This approach takes into account phylogenetic uncertainty as well as uncertainty from DIVA optimization. It is an extension of the previously described method called Bayes-DIVA, which pairs Bayesian phylogenetic analysis with biogeographic analysis using DIVA. Further, we show that the probability P of an ancestral range at Y calculated using this method does not equate to pp * F(r Y ) on the Bayesian consensus tree when both variables are <100%, where pp is the posterior probability and F(r Y ) is the frequency of range r for the node containing the specific crown group. We tested our DIVA-Bayes approach using Aesculus L., which has major lineages unresolved as a polytomy. We inferred the most probable geographic origins of the five traditional sections of Aesculus and of Aesculus californica Nutt. and examined range subdivisions at parental nodes of these lineages. Additionally, we used the DIVA-Bayes data from Aesculus to quantify the effects on biogeographic inference of including two wildcard fossil taxa in phylogenetic analysis. Our analysis resolved the geographic ranges of the parental nodes of the lineages of Aesculus with moderate to high probabilities. The probabilities were greater than those estimated using the simple calculation of pp * F(r y ) at a statistically significant level for two of the six lineages. We also found that adding fossil wildcard taxa in phylogenetic analysis generally increased P for ancestral ranges including the fossil's distribution area. The P was more dramatic for ranges that include the area of a wildcard fossil with a distribution area underrepresented among extant taxa. This indicates the importance of including fossils in biogeographic analysis. Exmination of range subdivision at the parental nodes revealed potential range evolution (extinction and dispersal events) along the stems of A. californica and sect. Parryana. Key words Aesculus, biogeography, DIVA, fossil wildcards, MrBayes, phylogenetic uncertainty.Studies in historical biogeography based on phylogeny have accumulated rapidly due to the recent increase in availability of molecular phy...

Hippocastaneae is a well-supported clade in Sapindaceae that comprises 15+ species; 12+ in Aesculus, two in Billia, and one in Handeliodendron Rehder. The monophyly of Aesculus and Billia were widely assumed, but a recent molecular phylogenetic study of Sapindanceae used seven species of Aesculus and one each of Billia and Handeliodendron and showed that Billia and Handeliodendron were nested within Aesculus. Here, we tested the hypothesis that Aesculus and Billia are mutually monophyletic using phylogenetic analyses of seven molecular markers and 31 accessions of Hippocastaneae representing 14 species. We performed phylogenetic analyses using a dataset of concatenated genes as well as with coalescent method for constructing a species tree from individual gene trees. The analysis of seven concatenated markers and the species tree strongly supported the mutual monophyly of Aesculus and Billia. We also recovered support for the traditional arrangement of genera within Hippocastaneae: Aesculus and Billia comprising a clade that is sister to Handeliodendron. However, the relationships among the genera remain incompletely resolved.