Between January 1985 and September 1989, 75 patients presenting with severe chronic pancreatitis with distal stricture and upstream dilatation underwent stenting of the main pancreatic duct (MPD) through the major papilla (n = 54) or minor papilla (n = 21) in order to drain the predominant duct through a 10 F plastic prosthesis. All patients had undergone biliary and pancreatic sphincterotomy with a few cases of complications, and the majority (84%) also ESWL in the period from October 1987 onwards without complications. Relief of pain (94%) occurred parallel to a decrease in the MPD diameter. In a mean follow-up period of 37 months improvement of the nutrition status and relief of pain was seen. Clogging of these large plastic stents was treated by replacement or by another endoscopic or surgical procedure. Complications were treated endoscopically. Further measures necessary due to failure of stenting consisted of laterolateral pancreatico-jejunostomy in 15% of patients and placement of self-expanding 18 F metal mesh stents in 29%. There was no mortality due to surgery. It is concluded that stenting of distal strictures in the MPD can lead to rapid resolution of pancreatic pain due to ductal hypertension and is the best means for determining the cause of pain, providing an alternative to surgery. Significant improvement of a stricture by prolonged stenting is however unusual, and such patients treated endoscopically require close follow-up with stent replacement approximately once a year.

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The majority (70 %) of patients with severe chronic pancreatitis who respond to pancreatic stenting maintain this response after definitive stent removal. However, a significantly higher re-stenting rate was observed in patients with chronic pancreatitis and pancreas divisum.

Twenty patients with chronic pancreatitis and signs of biliary obstruction were treated by endoscopic placement of self expandable metal mesh stents, and followed up prospectively. Eleven had been treated previously with plastic endoprostheses. All

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Variceal haemorrhage in cirrhotic patients carries a high early mortality even when balloon tamponade or emergency sclerotherapy are applied. The aim of this study to identify patients dying within six weeks of their first variceal haemorrhage. One hundred and twenty one patients with parenchymal cirrhosis presenting with the first variceal bleeding episode between June 1983 and December 1988 were studied. Nineteen patients were excluded for various reasons. Emergency sclerotherapy was carried out in cases of active bleeding or where there were endoscopic signs of recent bleeding, and then regularly repeated afterwards. Of the 24 variables studied and included in a multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model, three had an independent prognostic value: encephalopathy, prothrombin time, and the number of blood units transfused within the 72 hours of time zero. The subsequent regression equation was able to predict 89% of the patients who will die and 97% of the patients who will still be alive six weeks after their first variceal haemorrhage treated by sclerotherapy. Pugh score was less discriminatory than these last three variables in terms of accuracy of adjustment, goodness of fit to the model, receiver operating characteristic curves, and percentage correct prediction. To measure the accuracy of the prediction rule, our model was applied to another series of 28 cirrhotic patients admitted with their first variceal bleeding during the next period (January 1989 to May 1990). Death and survival were correctly predicted in respectively 82% and 94% ofthe cases. The use ofthis score is recommended for the selection of patients with high early mortality after variceal bleeding despite sclerotherapy, and for the design of new therapeutic trials.